Osasuna vs. Atletico Madrid prediction, odds, La Liga picks [5/12/2026]

Osasuna will take on Atletico Madrid in La Liga action at Estadio El Sadar on Tuesday, starting at 3:30 PM ET.

Based on the latest simulations, Dimers' proven La Liga model projects Atletico Madrid as the most likely winner of the Osasuna vs. Atletico Madrid game.

This article offers a closer look at Tuesday's match, including best bets and picks.

Osasuna vs. Atletico Madrid prediction: Who will win?

Using trusted machine learning and statistical analysis, we have simulated the result of Tuesday's La Liga match between Osasuna and Atletico Madrid, forming part of our La Liga predictions coverage.

Our leading predictive model suggests a 36.1% chance of Osasuna winning, a 38.0% chance for Atletico Madrid, and a 25.8% chance of a draw.

Additionally, the 2.5-goal over/under has a 51% chance of going over, according to our model.

Osasuna vs. Atletico Madrid odds

We have researched the best La Liga odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

Moneyline

Osasuna	Atletico Madrid	Draw
+165	+160	+245

Total Goals

Over 2.5	Under 2.5
-140	+100

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Osasuna vs. Atletico Madrid picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

Bet Type	Pick	Bet Now
Moneyline	Atletico Madrid	+160
Total Goals	Under 2.5	+100

According to our La Liga best bets, the top play to make on this game is Atletico Madrid to win.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.

Osasuna vs. Atletico Madrid: Correct score and BTTS predictions

Here are the top three most likely final scores according to our model, with a 1-1 draw being the most probable:

Final Score	Probability
OSA 1-1 ATM	12.3%
OSA 0-1 ATM	9.2%
OSA 1-0 ATM	9%

When it comes to the both teams to score (BTTS) market, we project a 54.8% chance of both Osasuna and Atletico Madrid finding the net and a 45.2% chance that at least one doesn’t.

These predictions are based on each team's average score according to our machine learning model, which means the most likely correct score may differ from our predicted winner.

Osasuna vs. Atletico Madrid game-day updates and essential details

Tuesday's La Liga game between Osasuna and Atletico Madrid at Estadio El Sadar is scheduled to begin in the USA at 3:30 PM ET.

• Who: Osasuna vs. Atletico Madrid
• Date: Tuesday, May 12, 2026
• Time: 3:30 PM ET/12:30PM PT
• Venue: Estadio El Sadar

Conclusion

According to our computer model, Osasuna has a 36.1% win probability on Tuesday, Atletico Madrid has a 38.0% win probability, and there is a 25.8% chance that the game will end in a draw.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.