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Read Article Alaves vs. Rayo Vallecano prediction, odds, La Liga picks [5/23/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Nick Slade, Chief Content Officer
Get Alaves vs Rayo Vallecano predictions for La Liga Saturday.
Alaves will square off with Rayo Vallecano in La Liga action at Estadio Mendizorrotza on Saturday, commencing at 3:00 PM ET.
Based on the latest simulation results, Dimers' proven La Liga model predicts Alaves as the most likely winner of the Alaves vs. Rayo Vallecano game.
This article offers a closer look at Saturday's match, including best bets and picks.
Alaves vs. Rayo Vallecano prediction: Who will win?
Using powerful machine learning and data, we have simulated the outcome of Saturday's La Liga match between Alaves and Rayo Vallecano, forming part of our La Liga predictions coverage.
Our leading predictive model currently indicates a 41.5% chance of Alaves winning, a 31.8% chance for Rayo Vallecano, and a 26.7% chance of a draw.
Additionally, the 2.5-goal over/under has a 54% chance of staying under, according to our model.
Alaves vs. Rayo Vallecano odds
We have researched the best La Liga odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
Moneyline
| Alaves | Rayo Vallecano | Draw |
|---|---|---|
| +120 | +255 | +230 |
Total Goals
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
|---|---|
| +105 | -145 |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Alaves vs. Rayo Vallecano picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Rayo Vallecano | +255 |
| Total Goals | Over 2.5 | +105 |
According to our best La Liga bets, the top play to make on this game is Rayo Vallecano to win.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Alaves vs. Rayo Vallecano: Correct score and BTTS predictions
The top three most likely final scores, according to our model, are listed below, with a 1-1 draw being the most probable:
| Final Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| ALV 1-1 RAY | 12.7% |
| ALV 1-0 RAY | 10.9% |
| ALV 0-1 RAY | 9.3% |
When it comes to the both teams to score (BTTS) market, we project a 51.1% chance of both Alaves and Rayo Vallecano finding the net and a 48.9% chance that at least one doesn’t.
These predictions are based on each team's average score according to our machine learning model, which means the most likely correct score may differ from our predicted winner.
Alaves vs. Rayo Vallecano game-day updates and essential details
Saturday's La Liga matchup between Alaves and Rayo Vallecano at Estadio Mendizorrotza is scheduled to begin in the United States at 3:00 PM ET.
- Who: Alaves vs. Rayo Vallecano
- Date: Saturday, May 23, 2026
- Time: 3:00 PM ET/12:00PM PT
- Venue: Estadio Mendizorrotza
Conclusion
According to our computer model, Alaves has a 41.5% win probability on Saturday, Rayo Vallecano has a 31.8% win probability, and there is a 26.7% chance that the game will end in a draw.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
Nick Slade, with nearly two decades of experience, is the Chief Content Officer at Cipher Sports Technology Group, overseeing content for Dimers. He specializes in soccer, NBA, and NHL betting, leveraging predictive analytics and machine learning to provide accurate betting insights.
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