Osasuna vs. Atletico Madrid Prediction, Picks and Odds

Dimers' prediction and analysis for the Osasuna vs. Atletico Madrid La Liga match on May 12, 2026 includes win probabilities and picks for the biggest betting markets. Get Dimers Pro for full access.
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LA LIGA
Atletico Madrid
2
1
Estadio El Sadar
Osasuna
Estadio El Sadar
OsasunaOSA
Score Summary
Atletico MadridATM
K. Barja (90')
Soccer ball icon
A. Lookman (pen.) (15')
Soccer ball icon
A. Sorloth (71')
Soccer ball icon
M. Llorente (79')
Red Card icon
Live Probabilities
Win %
  • Osasuna
    0.0%
  • Draw
    0.0%
  • Atletico Madrid
    100.0%
Win Probability
Match Timeline
  1. 90'
    Soccer ball icon
    Goal scored for Osasuna by K. Barja, assisted by R. Garcia
    2-1
  2. 90'
    Yellow Card
    F. Boyomo (Osasuna) cautioned
  3. 85'
    Yellow Card
    R. Le Normand (Atl. Madrid) cautioned
  4. 85'
    Yellow Card
    A. Catena (Osasuna) cautioned
  5. 83'
    Yellow Card
    D. Simeone (Atl. Madrid) cautioned
  6. 82'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Atl. Madrid: C. Lenglet replaces A. Lookman
  7. 79'
    Red Card
    M. Llorente (Atl. Madrid) sent off for a second yellow card
  8. 72'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Osasuna: A. Oroz replaces L. Torro
  9. 72'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Osasuna: A. Osambela replaces M. Gomez
  10. 71'
    Soccer ball icon
    Goal scored for Atl. Madrid by A. Sorloth, assisted by M. Llorente
    2-0
  11. 60'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Osasuna: R. Garcia replaces R. Garcia
  12. 60'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Osasuna: A. Bretones replaces J. Galan
  13. 59'
    Yellow Card
    M. Pubill (Atl. Madrid) cautioned
  14. 57'
    Yellow Card
    Koke (Atl. Madrid) cautioned
  15. 57'
    Yellow Card
    K. Barja (Osasuna) cautioned
  16. 52'
    Yellow Card
    M. Llorente (Atl. Madrid) cautioned
  17. 46'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Atl. Madrid: A. Sorloth replaces T. Almada
  18. 45'
    Yellow Card
    A. Budimir (Osasuna) cautioned
  19. 37'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Osasuna: K. Barja replaces R. Moro
  20. 30'
    Yellow Card
    R. Garcia (Osasuna) cautioned
  21. 18'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Atl. Madrid: R. Le Normand replaces R. Mendoza
  22. 15'
    Soccer ball icon
    Goal scored for Atl. Madrid by A. Lookman (pen.)
    1-0
  23. 14'
    Yellow Card
    J. Galan (Osasuna) cautioned

Osasuna vs. Atletico Madrid: Match prediction & analysis

Match overview

  • Teams: Osasuna vs. Atletico Madrid
  • Date: Tuesday, May 12, 2026
  • Time: 3:30 PM ET
  • Venue: Estadio El Sadar

Current betting odds

  • Moneyline: Osasuna +165, Atletico Madrid +165, draw +260
  • Total (Over/Under): 2.5 goals (-120/+102)

Dimers' win & correct score probabilities

  • Osasuna: 36.1%
  • Atletico Madrid: 38.0%
  • Draw: 25.8%

These probabilities are generated using Dimers' La Liga data model, which predicts the most likely outcomes for all major betting markets.

Most likely correct score: Osasuna 1-1 Atletico Madrid (12.3%)

Correct score projections are based on expected scoring patterns. A team can have a higher chance of winning overall, even if the single most likely scoreline is a draw or narrow result.

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  • Moneyline probabilities
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Who will win Osasuna vs. Atletico Madrid? Prediction & correct score

Atletico Madrid is the most likely winner of this match with a win probability of 38.0%.

The most likely correct score is Osasuna 1-1 Atletico Madrid.

But the most likely outcomes aren't always the best betting opportunities.

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Responsible gambling

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