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Thunder vs. Heat prediction: Why Oklahoma City is favored to win Saturday's NBA matchup [1/17/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Dave Garofolo, Content Producer
Get Oklahoma City Thunder vs Miami Heat predictions for NBA Saturday.
The Miami Heat will face the favored Oklahoma City Thunder in NBA action at Kaseya Center on Saturday, starting at 8:00 PM ET.
Based on the latest simulations and today’s injury updates, Dimers' advanced NBA model predicts the Thunder as the most likely winner of the Thunder vs. Heat game.
This prediction follows the latest NBA Injury Report, which suggests the Heat lineup will feature stars like Norman Powell, Tyler Herro and Bam Adebayo, while the Thunder will be led by Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Jalen Williams and Chet Holmgren.
This article offers an expanded analysis of Saturday's matchup, including an expanded look at the predicted score, best bets and player prop picks.
Thunder vs. Heat prediction: Who will win and cover?
Using innovative machine learning and data, we have simulated the outcome of Saturday's NBA game between the Thunder and Heat 10,000 times as part of our NBA predictions coverage.
Our leading predictive model gives the Thunder a 77% chance of defeating the Heat. Our predicted final score has the Thunder winning 120-111.
According to our model, the Heat (+10.5) have a 56% chance of covering the spread, while the over/under total of 233.5 points has a 53% chance of staying under.
Thunder vs. Heat odds
We have researched the best NBA odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Thunder | Heat |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | -10.5 (-108) | +10.5 (-110) |
| Moneyline | -440 | +350 |
| Total | o233.5 (-108) | u233.5 (-110) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Thunder vs. Heat picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Heat +10.5 | -110 |
| Moneyline | Heat | +350 |
| Total | Under 233.5 | -110 |
According to our best NBA bets, the top play to make on this game is Heat +10.5 at the spread.
Thunder vs. Heat player props
NBA player props are a common way to wager on Saturday's Thunder vs. Heat matchup without necessarily betting on the outcome. We use the best information available to project how each team's leading players will perform at Kaseya Center.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is expected to lead the Thunder with 30 points, 5 rebounds and 7 assists, while Norman Powell is projected to have 21 points, 4 rebounds and 3 assists for the Heat.
Check out our NBA player projections for a full range of projected box scores, including points, assists, rebounds and today's NBA first basket picks.
Thunder prediction
Our model's projected player stats for the Thunder are:
| Player | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | DFS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Gilgeous-Alexander | 30 | 5 | 7 | 2 | 53 |
| Jalen Williams | 19 | 5 | 6 | 1 | 38 |
| Chet Holmgren | 18 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 37 |
| Ajay Mitchell | 12 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 26 |
| Luguentz Dort | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 17 |
Heat prediction
Projected points, rebounds, assists and three-pointers made for the Heat:
| Player | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | DFS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Norman Powell | 21 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 35 |
| Tyler Herro | 20 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 37 |
| Bam Adebayo | 15 | 9 | 3 | 2 | 36 |
| Andrew Wiggins | 15 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 32 |
| Pelle Larsson | 10 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 24 |
Thunder vs. Heat game-day updates and essential details
Saturday's action between the Heat and Thunder at Kaseya Center is scheduled to commence at 8:00 PM ET.
- Who: Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Miami Heat
- Date: Saturday, January 17, 2026
- Time: 8:00 PM ET/5:00PM PT
- Venue: Kaseya Center
Conclusion
We predict the Thunder, with a 77% win probability, will likely beat the Heat on Saturday, with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander projected for a game-high 53 fantasy points.
AI and automation have enhanced this article to quickly deliver accurate Thunder vs. Heat insights, with human oversight ensuring high editorial quality. Our predictions are sourced from up-to-date data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.
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Dave Garofolo uses sophisticated AI-driven analytics to make predictions and evaluate player performances in the NBA, MLB, NFL, NHL, NCAAM, and PGA TOUR tournaments, crafting insightful game and prop previews.
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