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Thunder vs. Heat Prediction, Picks and Odds
Our detailed prediction and analysis for the Thunder vs. Heat NBA game on January 17, 2026 is featured below. Drawing from 10,000 game simulations, we provide expert picks, betting odds, and insights.
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FINAL
NBA
FINAL
NBA
120
122
Jan 18, 1AM Kaseya Center
Jan 18, 1AM Kaseya Center
In-Play ProbabilitiesIn-Play
Game PredictionsPre-Game
Best Bets | TEAM | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Thunder | 37 | 28 | 55 | 0 | 120 |
Heat | 30 | 30 | 62 | 0 | 122 |
Live Probabilities
Spread
Over / Under
Moneyline
Win %
25%
75%
Win Probability
| TEAM | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Thunder | 37 | 28 | 55 | 0 | 120 |
Heat | 30 | 30 | 62 | 0 | 122 |
Q4 00:00 Alex Caruso misses three point bank jump shot
Q4 00:05 Andrew Wiggins misses two point jump shot
Q4 00:31 Heat makes three point jump shot
Q4 3:05 Bam Adebayo makes two point pullup jump shot (Andrew Wiggins assists)
Q4 3:43 Heat makes three point jump shot
Q4 3:58 Chet Holmgren makes two point jump shot
Q4 4:20 Thunder misses two point jump shot
Q4 5:06 Aaron Wiggins makes three point jump shot
Q4 6:17 Heat misses three point jump shot
Q4 7:01 Pelle Larsson makes two point cutting layup (Kasparas Jakucionis assists)
Play by Play
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
ALL
End of 4th Quarter.
Alex Caruso misses three point bank jump shot
Thunder offensive rebound
Thunder violation
Thunder lineup change (Chet Holmgren, Ajay Mitchell, Alex Caruso, Aaron Wiggins, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander)
Andrew Wiggins misses two point jump shot
Heat lineup change (Norman Powell, Simone Fontecchio, Andrew Wiggins, Pelle Larsson, Bam Adebayo)
Heat 60 second timeout
+3
Heat makes three point jump shot
120-122
Thunder 60 second timeout
Heat lineup change (Norman Powell, Dru Smith, Andrew Wiggins, Pelle Larsson, Bam Adebayo)
Stoppage (Out of bounds)
Ajay Mitchell personal foul
+1
Bam Adebayo makes regular free throw 1 of 2
120-122
+1
Bam Adebayo makes regular free throw 2 of 2
120-122
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander turnover (offensive foul)
Ajay Mitchell defensive rebound
Heat lineup change (Norman Powell, Dru Smith, Andrew Wiggins, Pelle Larsson, Bam Adebayo)
+1
Ajay Mitchell makes regular free throw 1 of 2
120-122
Thunder personal foul
Heat offensive rebound
Pelle Larsson misses regular free throw 1 of 2
Aaron Wiggins defensive rebound
+2
Bam Adebayo makes two point pullup jump shot (Andrew Wiggins assists)
120-117
Thunder 60 second timeout
+3
Heat makes three point jump shot
120-122
Bam Adebayo defensive rebound
Chet Holmgren misses regular free throw 1 of 1
+2
Chet Holmgren makes two point jump shot
120-122
Heat personal foul
Alex Caruso defensive rebound
Heat 60 second timeout
Bam Adebayo turnover
Instant replay
Bam Adebayo defensive rebound
Thunder misses two point jump shot
Stoppage (Equipment malfunction)
Alex Caruso turnover (lost ball) (Andrew Wiggins steals)
Jump ball. (Pelle Larsson gains possession)
+3
Aaron Wiggins makes three point jump shot
120-122
Heat lineup change (Norman Powell, Andrew Wiggins, Pelle Larsson, Kasparas Jakucionis, Bam Adebayo)
Heat personal foul
Simone Fontecchio shooting foul (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander draws the foul)
Heat misses three point jump shot
Heat offensive rebound
Thunder lineup change (Alex Caruso, Isaiah Joe, Aaron Wiggins, Jaylin Williams, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander)
Ajay Mitchell turnover (out of bounds lost ball)
+2
Pelle Larsson makes two point cutting layup (Kasparas Jakucionis assists)
120-122
+2
Thunder makes two point jump shot
120-122
+3
Heat makes three point jump shot
120-122
Bam Adebayo offensive rebound
Heat misses three point jump shot
Thunder personal foul
Heat lineup change (Norman Powell, Andrew Wiggins, Pelle Larsson, Kasparas Jakucionis, Bam Adebayo)
Chet Holmgren defensive rebound
Ajay Mitchell turnover (bad pass)
Instant replay
Heat lineup change (Norman Powell, Kel'el Ware, Dru Smith, Nikola Jovic, Myron Gardner)
Instant replay
Instant replay
Pelle Larsson personal foul
+2
Aaron Wiggins makes two point jump shot
99-97
Cason Wallace defensive rebound
Heat misses three point jump shot
Kel'el Ware offensive rebound
Heat misses two point jump shot
Norman Powell defensive rebound
Thunder turnover
Aaron Wiggins defensive rebound
Kel'el Ware misses two point turnaround hook shot
Thunder lineup change (Cason Wallace, Chet Holmgren, Ajay Mitchell, Aaron Wiggins, Jaylin Williams)
Heat lineup change (Norman Powell, Kel'el Ware, Dru Smith, Andrew Wiggins, Pelle Larsson)
Heat lineup change (Norman Powell, Kel'el Ware, Dru Smith, Andrew Wiggins, Pelle Larsson)
Heat misses two point jump shot
Myron Gardner defensive rebound
Heat misses two point jump shot
Heat offensive rebound
End of 3rd Quarter.
Thunder turnover
Thunder lineup change (Cason Wallace, Ajay Mitchell, Alex Caruso, Aaron Wiggins, Jaylin Williams)
Nikola Jovic misses regular free throw 1 of 2
Thunder personal foul
Thunder lineup change (Ajay Mitchell, Isaiah Joe, Aaron Wiggins, Jaylin Williams, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander)
Thunder misses two point jump shot
+2
Heat makes two point jump shot
120-122
Stoppage (Equipment malfunction)
Heat misses two point jump shot
Thunder offensive rebound
+1
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes regular free throw 2 of 2
111-111
Heat 60 second timeout
+1
Dru Smith makes regular free throw 1 of 2
120-122
+1
Dru Smith makes regular free throw 2 of 2
120-122
Thunder misses two point jump shot
+2
Thunder makes two point jump shot
92-90
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander offensive rebound
Kel'el Ware blocks Jaylin Williams's two point jump shot
Heat personal foul
+1
Isaiah Joe makes regular free throw 1 of 2
92-90
Simone Fontecchio misses three point jump shot
Thunder personal foul
Isaiah Joe shooting foul (Dru Smith draws the foul)
Heat offensive rebound
+1
Dru Smith makes regular free throw 2 of 2
120-122
Heat lineup change (Simone Fontecchio, Kel'el Ware, Dru Smith, Nikola Jovic, Myron Gardner)
+3
Aaron Wiggins makes three point jump shot
111-111
Stoppage (Out of bounds)
Heat violation
Nikola Jovic misses three point jump shot
+1
Pelle Larsson makes technical free throw 1 of 1
120-122
Bam Adebayo defensive rebound
Heat lineup change (Dru Smith, Pelle Larsson, Nikola Jovic, Bam Adebayo, Myron Gardner)
+1
Isaiah Joe makes regular free throw 1 of 2
111-111
Isaiah Joe misses regular free throw 2 of 2
Heat personal foul
Simone Fontecchio offensive rebound
Thunder misses two point jump shot
Alex Caruso misses regular free throw 1 of 2
Chet Holmgren turnover (Bam Adebayo steals)
Chet Holmgren defensive rebound
+1
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes regular free throw 1 of 2
92-90
Kasparas Jakucionis personal foul (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander draws the foul)
Chet Holmgren defensive rebound
Bam Adebayo misses two point jump shot
Heat turnover
Thunder lineup change (Chet Holmgren, Alex Caruso, Isaiah Joe, Aaron Wiggins, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander)
+3
Heat makes three point jump shot
99-97
Bam Adebayo offensive rebound
+2
Heat makes two point jump shot
99-97
Stoppage (Out of bounds)
Norman Powell defensive rebound
Chet Holmgren defensive rebound
Bam Adebayo misses two point jump shot
Luguentz Dort misses three point jump shot
Kasparas Jakucionis defensive rebound
Thunder misses two point jump shot
Luguentz Dort defensive rebound
Andrew Wiggins offensive rebound
Andrew Wiggins offensive rebound
Heat misses two point jump shot
Heat personal foul
Heat misses two point jump shot
Stoppage (Out of bounds)
Norman Powell defensive rebound
+3
Norman Powell makes three point jump shot (Pelle Larsson assists)
95-95
Heat personal foul
Thunder lineup change (Cason Wallace, Chet Holmgren, Luguentz Dort, Ajay Mitchell, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander)
Heat lineup change (Norman Powell, Andrew Wiggins, Pelle Larsson, Kasparas Jakucionis, Bam Adebayo)
Bam Adebayo defensive rebound
+1
Norman Powell makes regular free throw 2 of 2
58-57
Thunder personal foul
Heat offensive rebound
+1
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes regular free throw 1 of 2
65-60
Jaylin Williams personal foul
Myron Gardner blocks Luguentz Dort's two point driving floating jump shot
Bam Adebayo defensive rebound
Cason Wallace misses two point driving floating jump shot
+3
Heat makes three point jump shot
58-57
Myron Gardner defensive rebound
Heat misses two point jump shot
Bam Adebayo offensive rebound
Heat personal foul
+1
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes regular free throw 1 of 2
58-57
+1
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes regular free throw 2 of 2
58-57
Heat lineup change (Norman Powell, Andrew Wiggins, Kasparas Jakucionis, Bam Adebayo, Myron Gardner)
+1
Simone Fontecchio makes regular free throw 1 of 2
58-57
Thunder lineup change (Cason Wallace, Luguentz Dort, Alex Caruso, Jaylin Williams, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander)
+1
Simone Fontecchio makes regular free throw 2 of 2
58-57
Andrew Wiggins defensive rebound
Isaiah Joe misses three point jump shot
+3
Heat makes three point jump shot
58-57
Heat misses two point jump shot
+2
Thunder makes two point jump shot
58-57
+2
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes two point jump shot
54-49
Heat misses three point jump shot
Thunder 60 second timeout
Thunder lineup change (Luguentz Dort, Isaiah Joe, Aaron Wiggins, Jaylin Williams, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander)
Thunder turnover
Heat 60 second timeout
+3
Isaiah Joe makes three point running jump shot (Jalen Williams assists)
52-40
Thunder misses three point jump shot
Heat misses three point jump shot
Kel'el Ware defensive rebound
Thunder defensive rebound
Simone Fontecchio offensive rebound
Simone Fontecchio misses two point jump shot
Heat misses two point jump shot
Jalen Williams violation
Heat lineup change (Simone Fontecchio, Kel'el Ware, Andrew Wiggins, Pelle Larsson, Kasparas Jakucionis)
+2
Heat makes two point jump shot
52-40
Kel'el Ware misses two point tip dunk
Aaron Wiggins defensive rebound
Dru Smith misses two point driving floating jump shot
Instant replay (Challenge)
Dru Smith blocks Jalen Williams's two point driving layup
Heat defensive rebound
Jalen Williams turnover (out of bounds lost ball)
Chet Holmgren defensive rebound
Heat misses two point jump shot
Norman Powell shooting foul (Chet Holmgren draws the foul)
+1
Chet Holmgren makes regular free throw 2 of 2
46-38
Thunder personal foul
+2
Pelle Larsson makes two point jump shot
42-36
Thunder turnover
+3
Heat makes three point jump shot
42-34
Kel'el Ware defensive rebound
Isaiah Joe defensive rebound
Dru Smith defensive rebound
Thunder misses two point jump shot
Heat misses two point jump shot
+2
Thunder makes two point jump shot
42-31
Norman Powell misses regular free throw 2 of 2
Stoppage (Out of bounds)
Thunder lineup change (Jalen Williams, Chet Holmgren, Ajay Mitchell, Isaiah Joe, Aaron Wiggins)
+2
Thunder makes two point jump shot
37-28
Heat turnover
Thunder misses two point jump shot
Jaylin Williams defensive rebound
+3
Heat makes three point jump shot
33-28
Kel'el Ware defensive rebound
Thunder misses three point jump shot
Thunder defensive rebound
Heat misses two point jump shot
+2
Thunder makes two point jump shot
31-23
Heat 60 second timeout
Heat lineup change (Norman Powell, Simone Fontecchio, Kel'el Ware, Dru Smith, Nikola Jovic)
Heat misses three point jump shot
Andrew Wiggins defensive rebound
Heat misses three point jump shot
Heat misses two point jump shot
+2
Heat makes two point jump shot
26-23
Simone Fontecchio offensive rebound
Heat offensive rebound
Stoppage (Out of bounds)
Thunder turnover
Thunder lineup change (Cason Wallace, Ajay Mitchell, Alex Caruso, Jaylin Williams, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander)
+2
Heat makes two point jump shot
26-21
Andrew Wiggins offensive rebound
+2
Thunder makes two point jump shot
26-19
Jalen Williams defensive rebound
+2
Thunder makes two point jump shot
24-19
Heat misses two point jump shot
+3
Heat makes three point jump shot
17-14
Stoppage (Out of bounds)
+2
Heat makes two point jump shot
14-11
+3
Thunder makes three point jump shot
14-9
Jalen Williams offensive rebound
Chet Holmgren misses two point alley-oop dunk
+1
Bam Adebayo makes regular free throw 2 of 2
11-9
Pelle Larsson defensive rebound
Norman Powell misses three point jump shot
+2
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes two point turnaround jump shot
9-4
Kasparas Jakucionis defensive rebound
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander misses three point jump shot
+2
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes two point stepback jump shot
6-4
Bam Adebayo shooting foul (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander draws the foul)
+1
Cason Wallace makes regular free throw 2 of 2
4-2
Pelle Larsson shooting foul (Cason Wallace draws the foul)
Norman Powell misses two point fadeaway jump shot
Heat offensive rebound
+2
Cason Wallace makes two point running layup
2-2
Cason Wallace defensive rebound
+2
Bam Adebayo makes two point turnaround hook shot
0-2
Thunder offensive rebound
Thunder lineup change (Jalen Williams, Cason Wallace, Chet Holmgren, Luguentz Dort, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander)
Heat lineup change (Norman Powell, Andrew Wiggins, Pelle Larsson, Kasparas Jakucionis, Bam Adebayo)
Box Score
Player Stats
Team Stats
| Pos | Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pos | Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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Thunder vs. Heat: Detailed Breakdown
Matchup Overview
- Teams: Thunder vs. Heat
- Date: Saturday, January 17, 2026
- Time: 8:00 PM ET
- Venue: Kaseya Center
Current Betting Odds
- Spread: Thunder favored at -10.5
- Total (Over/Under): 235.5
- Moneyline Odds: Thunder -460, Heat +430
Dimers' Win Probabilities
- Thunder: 78%
- Heat: 22%
Dimers' predictive model, renowned for its accuracy, assesses each team's chances by simulating the outcome of the game 10,000 times. This method provides a precise and unbiased view.
Projected Final Score
Our predicted final score for this NBA matchup is Thunder 121-112 Heat.
This prediction is based on each team's average score following 10,000 game simulations.
Our Prediction: Who Wins?
After extensive simulations, our model gives the Thunder a win probability of 78%, while the Heat have a win probability of 22%. Discover the best spread, over/under, and moneyline odds for the game on this page.
Summary
According to our analysis, the Thunder are more likely to beat the Heat in the NBA game at Kaseya Center on Sunday. Discover the best spread, over/under and moneyline odds, picks and probabilities for the game on this page.
Our Thunder vs. Heat predictions, based on sophisticated simulations and current data, guide you in making informed decisions. Remember to bet responsibly and within your financial limits.
For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.
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For further insights, explore our expert NBA predictions and the best NBA bets today, while our in-depth analysis includes NBA props, NBA futures, NBA odds, and the latest NBA news.
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