Timberwolves vs. Spurs Prediction, Picks and Odds

Our detailed prediction and analysis for the Timberwolves vs. Spurs NBA game on January 17, 2026 is featured below. Drawing from 10,000 game simulations, we provide expert picks, betting odds, and insights.
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FINAL
NBA
FINAL
NBA sport icon
NBA
Timberwolves
123
126
Frost Bank Center
Spurs
Frost Bank Center
TEAM1234T
Timberwolves
22 21 79 4 123
Spurs
21 41 61 2 126
Live Probabilities
Win %
  • Timberwolves
    2%
  • Spurs
    98%
Win Probability
TEAM1234T
Timberwolves
22 21 79 4 123
Spurs
21 41 61 2 126
Q4 00:00 Timberwolves misses three point jump shot
Q4 00:11 Timberwolves makes three point jump shot
Q4 00:11 Timberwolves makes three point jump shot
Q4 00:11 Spurs makes three point jump shot
Q4 00:17 Spurs makes three point jump shot
Q4 00:40 Timberwolves misses two point jump shot
Q4 1:03 Timberwolves makes three point jump shot
Q4 1:29 Victor Wembanyama misses two point tip layup
Q4 1:47 Donte DiVincenzo makes three point jump shot (Anthony Edwards assists)
Q4 2:04 De'Aaron Fox makes two point jump shot (Keldon Johnson assists)
Play by Play
  1. Q4 00:00
    Timberwolves misses three point jump shot
  2. Q4 00:00
    Timberwolves offensive rebound
  3. Q4 00:00
    Timberwolves offensive rebound
  4. Q4 00:01
    Timberwolves personal foul (Victor Wembanyama draws the foul)
  5. Q4 00:01
    Victor Wembanyama misses regular free throw 2 of 2
  6. Q4 00:01
    +1
    Victor Wembanyama makes regular free throw 1 of 2
    126-125
  7. Q4 00:01
    Victor Wembanyama offensive rebound
  8. Q4 00:04
    Timberwolves personal foul
  9. Q4 00:04
    Julian Champagnie defensive rebound
  10. Q4 00:05
    Anthony Edwards misses regular free throw 2 of 2
  11. Q4 00:09
    Spurs 60 second timeout
  12. Q4 00:09
    Timberwolves personal foul
  13. Q4 00:09
    Timberwolves lineup change (Anthony Edwards, Donte DiVincenzo, Jaden McDaniels, Julius Randle, Mike Conley)
  14. Q4 00:09
    +1
    De'Aaron Fox makes regular free throw 2 of 2
    126-125
  15. Q4 00:11
    +3
    Timberwolves makes three point jump shot
    122-123
  16. Q4 00:11
    +3
    Timberwolves makes three point jump shot
    126-125
  17. Q4 00:11
    +3
    Spurs makes three point jump shot
    123-126
  18. Q4 00:15
    Chris Finch technical foul
  19. Q4 00:15
    Timberwolves defensive rebound
  20. Q4 00:15
    Timberwolves lineup change (Anthony Edwards, Donte DiVincenzo, Jaden McDaniels, Julius Randle, Mike Conley)
  21. Q4 00:15
    Timberwolves 60 second timeout
  22. Q4 00:17
    +3
    Spurs makes three point jump shot
    126-125
  23. Q4 00:37
    Victor Wembanyama defensive rebound
  24. Q4 00:40
    Timberwolves misses two point jump shot
  25. Q4 1:03
    +3
    Timberwolves makes three point jump shot
    126-125
  26. Q4 1:19
    Donte DiVincenzo shooting foul (Keldon Johnson draws the foul)
  27. Q4 1:19
    Keldon Johnson misses regular free throw 1 of 2
  28. Q4 1:19
    Spurs offensive rebound
  29. Q4 1:19
    +1
    Keldon Johnson makes regular free throw 2 of 2
    126-125
  30. Q4 1:24
    Victor Wembanyama offensive rebound
  31. Q4 1:29
    Harrison Barnes offensive rebound
  32. Q4 1:29
    Victor Wembanyama misses two point tip layup
  33. Q4 1:47
    +3
    Donte DiVincenzo makes three point jump shot (Anthony Edwards assists)
    126-125
  34. Q4 2:04
    +2
    De'Aaron Fox makes two point jump shot (Keldon Johnson assists)
    126-125
  35. Q4 2:26
    Anthony Edwards personal foul (Loose ball) (Victor Wembanyama draws the foul)
  36. Q4 2:26
    Donte DiVincenzo turnover (bad pass)
  37. Q4 2:27
    Stoppage (Out of bounds)
  38. Q4 2:29
    Timberwolves misses three point jump shot
  39. Q4 2:58
    +3
    Anthony Edwards makes three point pullup jump shot
    106-108
  40. Q4 3:08
    +2
    Spurs makes two point jump shot
    126-125
  41. Q4 3:38
    Anthony Edwards defensive rebound
  42. Q4 3:40
    Victor Wembanyama misses two point jump shot
  43. Q4 3:59
    +1
    Anthony Edwards makes regular free throw 1 of 2
    126-125
  44. Q4 4:19
    Spurs 60 second timeout
  45. Q4 4:19
    Timberwolves lineup change (Anthony Edwards, Donte DiVincenzo, Joan Beringer, Jaden McDaniels, Julius Randle)
  46. Q4 4:43
    +2
    Spurs makes two point jump shot
    126-125
  47. Q4 4:50
    De'Aaron Fox defensive rebound
  48. Q4 5:05
    +3
    De'Aaron Fox makes three point jump shot (Stephon Castle assists)
    103-106
  49. Q4 5:37
    Spurs lineup change (Stephon Castle, Julian Champagnie, De'Aaron Fox, Keldon Johnson, Luke Kornet)
  50. Q4 5:59
    Luke Kornet defensive rebound
  51. Q4 6:17
    +2
    Keldon Johnson makes two point jump shot
    100-103
  52. Q4 6:37
    +1
    Julius Randle makes regular free throw 1 of 2
    106-108
  53. Q4 6:37
    Spurs personal foul
  54. Q4 6:52
    Timberwolves misses two point jump shot
  55. Q4 6:52
    Timberwolves personal foul
  56. Q4 7:08
    Julius Randle defensive rebound
  57. Q4 7:10
    Spurs misses two point jump shot
  58. Q4 7:31
    +2
    Timberwolves makes two point jump shot
    126-125
  59. Q4 7:36
    Spurs misses two point jump shot
  60. Q4 7:58
    +1
    Julius Randle makes regular free throw 1 of 1
    126-125
  61. Q4 8:02
    Spurs misses two point jump shot
  62. Q4 8:22
    Mike Conley defensive rebound
  63. Q4 8:24
    Harrison Barnes misses three point jump shot
  64. Q4 8:35
    Spurs misses three point jump shot
  65. Q4 8:41
    Spurs misses three point jump shot
  66. Q4 8:51
    Stoppage (Out of bounds)
  67. Q4 8:52
    Timberwolves misses three point jump shot
  68. Q4 9:27
    Spurs 60 second timeout
  69. Q4 9:33
    Anthony Edwards misses two point layup
  70. Q4 9:51
    Harrison Barnes defensive rebound
  71. Q4 10:01
    Dylan Harper misses two point jump shot
  72. Q4 10:18
    +1
    Julius Randle makes regular free throw 1 of 2
    126-125
  73. Q4 10:18
    Spurs lineup change (Harrison Barnes, Dylan Harper, De'Aaron Fox, Keldon Johnson, Luke Kornet)
  74. Q4 10:18
    +1
    Julius Randle makes regular free throw 2 of 2
    126-125
  75. Q4 10:30
    Spurs misses three point jump shot
  76. Q4 10:51
    Spurs personal foul
  77. Q4 10:51
    +1
    Anthony Edwards makes regular free throw 2 of 2
    119-123
  78. Q4 10:51
    +1
    Anthony Edwards makes regular free throw 1 of 2
    122-123
  79. Q4 11:08
    +2
    Victor Wembanyama makes two point driving finger roll layup
    106-108
  80. Q4 11:31
    Spurs misses two point jump shot
  81. Q4 11:39
    Harrison Barnes offensive rebound
  82. Q4 11:52
    Timberwolves personal foul
  83. Q3 00:00
    Timberwolves misses three point jump shot
  84. Q4 12:00
    Timberwolves lineup change (Anthony Edwards, Donte DiVincenzo, Joan Beringer, Julius Randle, Mike Conley)
  85. Q3 00:27
    Spurs personal foul
  86. Q3 1:16
    Anthony Edwards personal foul
  87. Q3 1:26
    Timberwolves misses three point jump shot
  88. Q3 2:22
    +2
    Jaden McDaniels makes two point jump shot
    74-85
  89. Q3 2:38
    Victor Wembanyama personal foul
  90. Q3 2:38
    +1
    Jaden McDaniels makes technical free throw 1 of 1
    122-123
  91. Q3 2:52
    Spurs turnover
  92. Q3 3:00
    +1
    Jaden McDaniels makes regular free throw 1 of 2
    73-85
  93. Q3 3:05
    Leonard Miller defensive rebound
  94. Q3 3:11
    Keldon Johnson offensive rebound
  95. Q3 3:36
    +3
    Timberwolves makes three point jump shot
    74-85
  96. Q3 4:11
    Spurs defensive rebound
  97. Q3 4:12
    Stoppage (Out of bounds)
  98. Q3 4:12
    Spurs lineup change (Lindy Waters III, Dylan Harper, De'Aaron Fox, Victor Wembanyama, Keldon Johnson)
  99. Q3 4:56
    Keldon Johnson turnover (bad pass)
  100. Q3 5:06
    +3
    Bones Hyland makes three point jump shot (Jaden McDaniels assists)
    69-81
  101. Q3 5:15
    +2
    Keldon Johnson makes two point driving hook shot (Lindy Waters III assists)
    74-85
  102. Q3 5:33
    Keldon Johnson personal foul
  103. Q3 5:59
    Timberwolves lineup change (Bones Hyland, Donte DiVincenzo, Jaden McDaniels, Julius Randle, Leonard Miller)
  104. Q3 5:59
    +1
    Jaden McDaniels makes regular free throw 1 of 2
    122-123
  105. Q3 6:14
    +2
    Spurs makes two point jump shot
    106-108
  106. Q3 6:32
    Spurs turnover
  107. Q3 6:37
    Bones Hyland turnover
  108. Q3 6:42
    Julius Randle defensive rebound
  109. Q3 6:56
    Julius Randle kicked ball violation
  110. Q3 6:56
    Spurs lineup change (Dylan Harper, Stephon Castle, Julian Champagnie, Keldon Johnson, Luke Kornet)
  111. Q3 6:56
    Timberwolves lineup change (Bones Hyland, Donte DiVincenzo, Joan Beringer, Jaden McDaniels, Julius Randle)
  112. Q3 7:37
    Harrison Barnes personal foul (Julius Randle draws the foul)
  113. Q3 8:05
    Timberwolves personal foul
  114. Q3 8:07
    Joan Beringer offensive rebound
  115. Q3 8:07
    +2
    Timberwolves makes two point jump shot
    100-103
  116. Q3 8:07
    Spurs 60 second timeout
  117. Q3 8:23
    Spurs personal foul
  118. Q3 8:41
    Instant replay (Challenge)
  119. Q3 8:41
    Donte DiVincenzo blocks Stephon Castle's two point driving layup
  120. Q3 8:41
    Timberwolves challenge timeout
  121. Q3 8:52
    Stoppage (Out of bounds)
  122. Q3 9:12
    +1
    Julius Randle makes regular free throw 1 of 2
    82-94
  123. Q3 9:12
    +1
    Julius Randle makes regular free throw 2 of 2
    82-94
  124. Q3 9:20
    Stoppage (Out of bounds)
  125. Q3 9:20
    Timberwolves challenge timeout
  126. Q3 9:20
    Timberwolves 60 second timeout
  127. Q3 9:20
    Timberwolves 60 second timeout
  128. Q3 9:23
    Timberwolves misses three point jump shot
  129. Q3 10:02
    Spurs personal foul
  130. Q3 10:34
    Timberwolves misses two point jump shot
  131. Q3 10:45
    Joan Beringer defensive rebound
  132. Q3 10:49
    Spurs misses three point jump shot
  133. Q3 11:36
    Spurs misses three point jump shot
  134. Q3 11:41
    Timberwolves turnover
  135. Q2 00:00
    Timberwolves personal foul
  136. Q2 00:00
    +1
    Victor Wembanyama makes regular free throw 2 of 2
    43-62
  137. Q2 00:00
    Julius Randle misses three point jump shot
  138. Q2 00:00
    Timberwolves offensive rebound
  139. Q2 00:00
    End of 1st Half.
  140. Q3 12:00
    Spurs lineup change (Harrison Barnes, Stephon Castle, Julian Champagnie, De'Aaron Fox, Victor Wembanyama)
  141. Q2 00:01
    Julius Randle turnover
  142. Q2 00:20
    Anthony Edwards turnover
  143. Q2 00:31
    +3
    Spurs makes three point jump shot
    43-62
  144. Q2 00:45
    Anthony Edwards misses regular free throw 1 of 2
  145. Q2 00:45
    Timberwolves offensive rebound
  146. Q2 00:45
    +1
    Anthony Edwards makes regular free throw 2 of 2
    43-62
  147. Q2 00:50
    Stephon Castle personal foul (Loose ball) (Julius Randle draws the foul)
  148. Q2 1:18
    +3
    Spurs makes three point jump shot
    43-62
  149. Q2 1:25
    +2
    Julius Randle makes two point jump shot
    43-62
  150. Q2 1:58
    Victor Wembanyama defensive rebound
  151. Q2 2:07
    Spurs misses two point jump shot
  152. Q2 2:19
    Johnny Juzang offensive rebound
  153. Q2 2:20
    Timberwolves misses two point jump shot
  154. Q2 2:55
    Spurs personal foul
  155. Q2 2:55
    +1
    Jaden McDaniels makes regular free throw 1 of 2
    43-62
  156. Q2 3:04
    +3
    Harrison Barnes makes three point jump shot (Victor Wembanyama assists)
    35-47
  157. Q2 3:22
    +2
    Timberwolves makes two point jump shot
    43-62
  158. Q2 3:33
    Spurs misses two point jump shot
  159. Q2 4:21
    Timberwolves lineup change (Anthony Edwards, Johnny Juzang, Jaden McDaniels, Julius Randle, Mike Conley)
  160. Q2 4:26
    Stephon Castle defensive rebound
  161. Q2 4:29
    Donte DiVincenzo misses three point pullup jump shot
  162. Q2 4:40
    +2
    Luke Kornet makes two point alley-oop dunk (Stephon Castle assists)
    35-47
  163. Q2 5:07
    Spurs lineup change (Harrison Barnes, Stephon Castle, Julian Champagnie, Keldon Johnson, Luke Kornet)
  164. Q2 5:34
    +2
    Timberwolves makes two point jump shot
    35-47
  165. Q2 5:50
    +1
    Stephon Castle makes regular free throw 2 of 2
    35-47
  166. Q2 5:54
    Stephon Castle defensive rebound
  167. Q2 5:58
    Timberwolves misses two point jump shot
  168. Q2 6:11
    +3
    Spurs makes three point jump shot
    33-44
  169. Q2 6:45
    Timberwolves 60 second timeout
  170. Q2 6:45
    Spurs lineup change (Harrison Barnes, Dylan Harper, Stephon Castle, Julian Champagnie, Luke Kornet)
  171. Q2 7:08
    Timberwolves misses three point jump shot
  172. Q2 7:19
    Timberwolves personal foul
  173. Q2 7:19
    Timberwolves lineup change (Bones Hyland, Anthony Edwards, Donte DiVincenzo, Jaden McDaniels, Julius Randle)
  174. Q2 7:19
    +1
    Victor Wembanyama makes regular free throw 2 of 2
    31-41
  175. Q2 7:47
    Victor Wembanyama offensive rebound
  176. Q2 7:47
    Timberwolves personal foul
  177. Q2 7:59
    Stoppage (Out of bounds)
  178. Q2 8:07
    Carter Bryant offensive rebound
  179. Q2 8:25
    +2
    Timberwolves makes two point jump shot
    31-34
  180. Q2 8:48
    +2
    Spurs makes two point jump shot
    29-34
  181. Q2 8:55
    Victor Wembanyama defensive rebound
  182. Q2 9:10
    Timberwolves personal foul
  183. Q2 9:10
    +1
    Victor Wembanyama makes regular free throw 1 of 2
    29-31
  184. Q2 9:10
    +1
    Victor Wembanyama makes regular free throw 2 of 2
    29-32
  185. Q2 9:32
    +3
    Spurs makes three point jump shot
    29-30
  186. Q2 9:43
    +2
    Timberwolves makes two point jump shot
    29-27
  187. Q2 9:54
    Bones Hyland defensive rebound
  188. Q2 10:08
    +3
    Timberwolves makes three point jump shot
    27-27
  189. Q2 10:26
    +1
    Victor Wembanyama makes regular free throw 2 of 2
    24-27
  190. Q2 10:40
    Timberwolves turnover
  191. Q2 11:03
    +2
    Spurs makes two point jump shot
    24-25
  192. Q2 11:11
    De'Aaron Fox defensive rebound
  193. Q1 00:00
    Instant replay
  194. Q1 00:00
    End of 1st Quarter.
  195. Q2 12:00
    Spurs lineup change (Dylan Harper, Carter Bryant, De'Aaron Fox, Victor Wembanyama, Keldon Johnson)
  196. Q1 00:03
    Timberwolves personal foul
  197. Q1 00:30
    Jaylen Clark offensive rebound
  198. Q1 00:51
    Timberwolves misses two point jump shot
  199. Q1 00:57
    Jaylen Clark defensive rebound
  200. Q1 1:25
    Luke Kornet offensive rebound
  201. Q1 1:53
    Stoppage (Out of bounds)
  202. Q1 1:54
    Timberwolves misses two point jump shot
  203. Q1 2:03
    Joan Beringer offensive rebound
  204. Q1 2:50
    +3
    Spurs makes three point jump shot
    17-17
  205. Q1 2:59
    Timberwolves turnover
  206. Q1 3:10
    +2
    Spurs makes two point jump shot
    17-14
  207. Q1 3:15
    Luke Kornet offensive rebound
  208. Q1 3:31
    +2
    Timberwolves makes two point jump shot
    17-12
  209. Q1 3:40
    Stephon Castle misses regular free throw 1 of 2
  210. Q1 4:02
    +2
    Timberwolves makes two point jump shot
    15-12
  211. Q1 4:05
    Luke Kornet offensive rebound
  212. Q1 4:05
    Spurs misses two point jump shot
  213. Q1 4:09
    Luke Kornet offensive rebound
  214. Q1 4:17
    Stephon Castle defensive rebound
  215. Q1 4:26
    Spurs personal foul
  216. Q1 4:26
    Spurs lineup change (Dylan Harper, Stephon Castle, De'Aaron Fox, Keldon Johnson, Luke Kornet)
  217. Q1 5:02
    Julius Randle defensive rebound
  218. Q1 5:13
    +2
    Timberwolves makes two point jump shot
    11-10
  219. Q1 5:30
    Anthony Edwards defensive rebound
  220. Q1 5:55
    Dylan Harper defensive rebound
  221. Q1 6:07
    Spurs personal foul
  222. Q1 6:31
    Stephon Castle offensive rebound
  223. Q1 6:31
    Timberwolves personal foul
  224. Q1 6:31
    Stephon Castle misses regular free throw 2 of 2
  225. Q1 6:44
    Spurs defensive rebound
  226. Q1 6:58
    Spurs turnover
  227. Q1 7:25
    Spurs misses two point jump shot
  228. Q1 7:40
    Timberwolves personal foul
  229. Q1 8:19
    +1
    Jaden McDaniels makes regular free throw 2 of 2
    5-6
  230. Q1 8:19
    Timberwolves offensive rebound
  231. Q1 8:21
    De'Aaron Fox turnover (bad pass) (Jaden McDaniels steals)
  232. Q1 8:22
    Victor Wembanyama defensive rebound
  233. Q1 8:42
    Julian Champagnie misses three point jump shot
  234. Q1 9:03
    +2
    Anthony Edwards makes two point running dunk (Donte DiVincenzo assists)
    4-6
  235. Q1 9:31
    Stoppage (Equipment malfunction)
  236. Q1 9:35
    +2
    Julian Champagnie makes two point running dunk (Victor Wembanyama assists)
    0-6
  237. Q1 9:45
    Julian Champagnie turnover (bad pass) (Naz Reid steals)
  238. Q1 9:52
    De'Aaron Fox defensive rebound
  239. Q1 10:06
    De'Aaron Fox misses two point running pullup jump shot
  240. Q1 10:11
    Donte DiVincenzo turnover (bad pass) (Stephon Castle steals)
  241. Q1 10:52
    Timberwolves defensive rebound
  242. Q1 10:52
    Stoppage (Out of bounds)
  243. Q1 11:03
    Donte DiVincenzo misses three point jump shot
  244. Q1 11:11
    Jaden McDaniels defensive rebound
  245. Q1 11:22
    Julian Champagnie defensive rebound
  246. Q1 11:46
    +2
    De'Aaron Fox makes two point driving finger roll layup
    0-2
  247. Q1 12:00
    Start of 1st Quarter
  248. Q1 12:00
    Spurs lineup change (Harrison Barnes, Stephon Castle, Julian Champagnie, De'Aaron Fox, Victor Wembanyama)
Box Score
Timberwolves
PosPlayerPts
Spurs
PosPlayerPts

Timberwolves vs. Spurs: Detailed Breakdown

Matchup Overview

  • Teams: Timberwolves vs. Spurs
  • Date: Saturday, January 17, 2026
  • Time: 8:00 PM ET
  • Venue: Frost Bank Center

Current Betting Odds

  • Spread: Spurs favored at -5
  • Total (Over/Under): 234.5
  • Moneyline Odds: Timberwolves +165, Spurs -194

Dimers' Win Probabilities

  • Timberwolves: 32%
  • Spurs: 68%

Dimers' predictive model, renowned for its accuracy, assesses each team's chances by simulating the outcome of the game 10,000 times. This method provides a precise and unbiased view.

Projected Final Score

Our predicted final score for this NBA matchup is Timberwolves 113-118 Spurs.

This prediction is based on each team's average score following 10,000 game simulations.

Our Prediction: Who Wins?

After extensive simulations, our model gives the Timberwolves a win probability of 32%, while the Spurs have a win probability of 68%. Discover the best spread, over/under, and moneyline odds for the game on this page.

Summary

According to our analysis, the Spurs are more likely to beat the Timberwolves in the NBA game at Frost Bank Center on Sunday. Discover the best spread, over/under and moneyline odds, picks and probabilities for the game on this page.

Our Timberwolves vs. Spurs predictions, based on sophisticated simulations and current data, guide you in making informed decisions. Remember to bet responsibly and within your financial limits.

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