Oct 25, 2026
NBA player props today: Sunday's best props include Ty Jerome [10/25/2026]
Read Article NBA first basket predictions and picks for Sunday, October 25, 2026
Updated: | First published:
Written by Jason Bevilacqua, Head of Content and Communities
Get first basket predictions today driven by expert analysis of NBA slate on 10/25.
Our NBA first basket picks and predictions for Sunday, October 25, 2026, are live with the Grizzlies' Ty Jerome projected as the most likely player to score first. Luka Doncic and Franz Wagner round out the top three.
Every pick comes from our daily NBA player projections, using detailed first basket stats such as player efficiency, shot frequency, and expected starting lineups. We also highlight tonight's top first basket value picks by comparing real-time odds to our projected probabilities.
NBA first basket predictions today: Top 10 players
- Ty Jerome (Grizzlies): 17.5% probability
- Luka Doncic (Lakers): 16.8%
- Franz Wagner (Magic): 15.2%
- Paul Reed (Pistons): 14.9%
- Pascal Siakam (Pacers): 14.4%
- Jaylen Brown (76ers): 14.3%
- Darius Garland (Clippers): 14.1%
- Jalen Brunson (Knicks): 14.0%
- Domantas Sabonis (Kings): 13.3%
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (Thunder): 13.2%
Best NBA first basket bet tonight
The highest first basket probability doesn't necessarily mean the best bet. We identify betting value by comparing our model's probabilities with the implied probabilities of available sportsbook odds.
Isaiah Jackson first basket scorer
- Odds: +1300 (FanDuel)
- Edge: 6.0%
- Probability: 13.1%
- Matchup: Clippers vs. Thunder (7:00 PM ET)
The Clippers' Isaiah Jackson has a 13.1% chance of scoring the first basket in his matchup tonight according to our model, compared with the 7.1% implied by FanDuel's +1300 odds. That's a 6.0% edge, the largest we've identified on Sunday's NBA slate. Our NBA player props page includes a full list of first basket bets, while our NBA player projections page shows first basket probabilities for every player expected to start tonight.
About these NBA first basket predictions
Dimers' NBA first basket model estimates each projected starter's chance of scoring the opening basket using shot frequency, scoring efficiency, and each player's share of their team's expected scoring opportunities.
Projections may change as starting lineups are confirmed. Learn more about how Dimers predictions work.
Dimers encourages responsible gambling.
Jason Bevilacqua, an expert in MLB, NHL, NBA, MLS, and NFL, delivers game previews, best bets, and props. Since 2020, as Head of Social and Community at Dimers, he has contributed insightful articles utilizing data-driven models and simulations.
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