Pelicans vs. Nuggets prediction, odds and best bet for Oct. 24, 2026

The Denver Nuggets are favored to beat the New Orleans Pelicans on Saturday, according to Dimers' NBA pregame model.

Our Pelicans vs. Nuggets prediction gives Denver an 80.3% chance of winning at Ball Arena, but the latest odds suggest value in betting on the Pelicans to cover the +11.5 spread.

Pelicans vs. Nuggets: Key predictions

• Predicted score: Nuggets 124-114 Pelicans
• Nuggets win probability: 80.3%
• Pelicans win probability: 19.7%
• Pelicans +11.5 spread: 55.3% cover probability
• Under 239.5 points: 53.7% probability

Dimers' NBA pregame model uses machine learning to predict each team's score, accounting for player performance, expected minutes, matchups, availability, and home-court advantage. These scores inform our NBA predictions, including win, spread, and total probabilities, which we compare with available odds to identify betting value.

Pelicans vs. Nuggets odds

Here are the best available odds across the moneyline, spread, and total points markets monitored by Dimers.

• Pelicans moneyline: 19¢ (Novig)
• Nuggets moneyline: 81¢ (Novig)
• Pelicans +11.5: 51¢ (Polymarket)
• Nuggets -11.5: 49¢ (Novig)
• Over 239.5 points: 51¢ (Novig)
• Under 239.5 points: 50¢ (Novig)

Odds are subject to change and may vary by location.

Best value bet: Pelicans +11.5 (51¢)

The Nuggets may be more likely to win, but Dimers' top value bet is the Pelicans to cover the +11.5 spread at 51¢, available at Polymarket.

Those odds imply the Pelicans have a 51.0% chance of covering the spread, while our model puts that probability at 55.3%.

That's a 4.3% edge in the Pelicans' favor, the largest across the moneyline, spread, and total points markets based on Dimers' probabilities and the best available odds.

Pelicans vs. Nuggets player projections

Unlike our team-focused NBA pregame model, Dimers' NBA player props model projects points, rebounds, assists, and more, accounting for recent form, expected minutes, injuries, lineup changes, and defensive matchups.

Nikola Jokic leads our scoring projections for this matchup, with the Nuggets star also expected to add 12.9 rebounds and 10 assists. The Pelicans have three players among the top five projected scorers, compared to the Nuggets' two.

Top 5 projected scorers

• Nikola Jokic (Nuggets): 26.6 points
• Jamal Murray (Nuggets): 24.8
• Trey Murphy (Pelicans): 23.5
• Zion Williamson (Pelicans): 20.7
• Dejounte Murray (Pelicans): 17.7

Projections across all major stat categories are available for every player expected to take the court on our NBA player projections page.

These are statistical projections, not betting recommendations. Compare them with available odds to assess potential value.

Unlock all Pelicans vs. Nuggets predictions with Dimers Pro

Get the complete picture for Saturday's matchup with Dimers Pro, including:

• Best bets for the moneyline, spread, and total points markets.
• Points, rebounds, and assists projections for players on both teams.
• High-value player props across points, rebounds, assists, three-pointers, steals, and blocks markets.

See our full range of Pelicans vs. Nuggets predictions.

Pelicans vs. Nuggets game details

• Matchup: New Orleans Pelicans vs. Denver Nuggets
• Date: Saturday, October 24, 2026
• Time: 9:00 PM ET/6:00 PM PT
• Venue: Ball Arena

About this prediction

This preview uses predictions from Dimers' proprietary NBA models, presented through a human-written template. Matchup-specific information is populated automatically.

Predictions are estimates, not guarantees, and may change as new information becomes available. Learn more about how Dimers predictions work.

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