Thunder vs. Heat Prediction, Picks and Odds

Our detailed prediction and analysis for the Thunder vs. Heat NBA game on January 17, 2026 is featured below. Drawing from 10,000 game simulations, we provide expert picks, betting odds, and insights.
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FINAL
NBA
FINAL
NBA sport icon
NBA
Thunder
120
122
Kaseya Center
Heat
Kaseya Center
TEAM1234T
Thunder
37 28 55 0 120
Heat
30 30 62 0 122
Live Probabilities
Win %
  • Thunder
    25%
  • Heat
    75%
Win Probability
TEAM1234T
Thunder
37 28 55 0 120
Heat
30 30 62 0 122
Q4 00:00 Alex Caruso misses three point bank jump shot
Q4 00:05 Andrew Wiggins misses two point jump shot
Q4 00:31 Heat makes three point jump shot
Q4 3:05 Bam Adebayo makes two point pullup jump shot (Andrew Wiggins assists)
Q4 3:43 Heat makes three point jump shot
Q4 3:58 Chet Holmgren makes two point jump shot
Q4 4:20 Thunder misses two point jump shot
Q4 5:06 Aaron Wiggins makes three point jump shot
Q4 6:17 Heat misses three point jump shot
Q4 7:01 Pelle Larsson makes two point cutting layup (Kasparas Jakucionis assists)
Play by Play
  1. Q4 00:00
    End of 4th Quarter.
  2. Q4 00:00
    Alex Caruso misses three point bank jump shot
  3. Q4 00:00
    Thunder offensive rebound
  4. Q4 00:00
    Thunder violation
  5. Q4 00:03
    Thunder lineup change (Chet Holmgren, Ajay Mitchell, Alex Caruso, Aaron Wiggins, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander)
  6. Q4 00:05
    Andrew Wiggins misses two point jump shot
  7. Q4 00:21
    Heat lineup change (Norman Powell, Simone Fontecchio, Andrew Wiggins, Pelle Larsson, Bam Adebayo)
  8. Q4 00:21
    Heat 60 second timeout
  9. Q4 00:31
    +3
    Heat makes three point jump shot
    120-122
  10. Q4 00:31
    Thunder 60 second timeout
  11. Q4 00:31
    Heat lineup change (Norman Powell, Dru Smith, Andrew Wiggins, Pelle Larsson, Bam Adebayo)
  12. Q4 00:38
    Stoppage (Out of bounds)
  13. Q4 00:57
    Ajay Mitchell personal foul
  14. Q4 00:57
    +1
    Bam Adebayo makes regular free throw 1 of 2
    120-122
  15. Q4 00:57
    +1
    Bam Adebayo makes regular free throw 2 of 2
    120-122
  16. Q4 1:14
    Shai Gilgeous-Alexander turnover (offensive foul)
  17. Q4 1:30
    Ajay Mitchell defensive rebound
  18. Q4 1:50
    Heat lineup change (Norman Powell, Dru Smith, Andrew Wiggins, Pelle Larsson, Bam Adebayo)
  19. Q4 1:50
    +1
    Ajay Mitchell makes regular free throw 1 of 2
    120-122
  20. Q4 2:02
    Thunder personal foul
  21. Q4 2:02
    Heat offensive rebound
  22. Q4 2:02
    Pelle Larsson misses regular free throw 1 of 2
  23. Q4 2:26
    Aaron Wiggins defensive rebound
  24. Q4 3:05
    +2
    Bam Adebayo makes two point pullup jump shot (Andrew Wiggins assists)
    120-117
  25. Q4 3:05
    Thunder 60 second timeout
  26. Q4 3:43
    +3
    Heat makes three point jump shot
    120-122
  27. Q4 3:56
    Bam Adebayo defensive rebound
  28. Q4 3:58
    Chet Holmgren misses regular free throw 1 of 1
  29. Q4 3:58
    +2
    Chet Holmgren makes two point jump shot
    120-122
  30. Q4 3:58
    Heat personal foul
  31. Q4 4:04
    Alex Caruso defensive rebound
  32. Q4 4:14
    Heat 60 second timeout
  33. Q4 4:14
    Bam Adebayo turnover
  34. Q4 4:14
    Instant replay
  35. Q4 4:17
    Bam Adebayo defensive rebound
  36. Q4 4:20
    Thunder misses two point jump shot
  37. Q4 4:40
    Stoppage (Equipment malfunction)
  38. Q4 4:42
    Alex Caruso turnover (lost ball) (Andrew Wiggins steals)
  39. Q4 4:42
    Jump ball. (Pelle Larsson gains possession)
  40. Q4 5:06
    +3
    Aaron Wiggins makes three point jump shot
    120-122
  41. Q4 5:31
    Heat lineup change (Norman Powell, Andrew Wiggins, Pelle Larsson, Kasparas Jakucionis, Bam Adebayo)
  42. Q4 5:31
    Heat personal foul
  43. Q4 5:55
    Simone Fontecchio shooting foul (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander draws the foul)
  44. Q4 6:17
    Heat misses three point jump shot
  45. Q4 6:35
    Heat offensive rebound
  46. Q4 6:35
    Thunder lineup change (Alex Caruso, Isaiah Joe, Aaron Wiggins, Jaylin Williams, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander)
  47. Q4 6:51
    Ajay Mitchell turnover (out of bounds lost ball)
  48. Q4 7:01
    +2
    Pelle Larsson makes two point cutting layup (Kasparas Jakucionis assists)
    120-122
  49. Q4 7:15
    +2
    Thunder makes two point jump shot
    120-122
  50. Q4 7:39
    +3
    Heat makes three point jump shot
    120-122
  51. Q4 7:46
    Bam Adebayo offensive rebound
  52. Q4 7:50
    Heat misses three point jump shot
  53. Q4 8:01
    Thunder personal foul
  54. Q4 8:01
    Heat lineup change (Norman Powell, Andrew Wiggins, Pelle Larsson, Kasparas Jakucionis, Bam Adebayo)
  55. Q4 8:18
    Chet Holmgren defensive rebound
  56. Q4 8:37
    Ajay Mitchell turnover (bad pass)
  57. Q4 8:37
    Instant replay
  58. Q4 8:37
    Heat lineup change (Norman Powell, Kel'el Ware, Dru Smith, Nikola Jovic, Myron Gardner)
  59. Q4 8:37
    Instant replay
  60. Q4 8:37
    Instant replay
  61. Q4 8:37
    Pelle Larsson personal foul
  62. Q4 9:07
    +2
    Aaron Wiggins makes two point jump shot
    99-97
  63. Q4 9:15
    Cason Wallace defensive rebound
  64. Q4 9:18
    Heat misses three point jump shot
  65. Q4 9:20
    Kel'el Ware offensive rebound
  66. Q4 9:23
    Heat misses two point jump shot
  67. Q4 9:35
    Norman Powell defensive rebound
  68. Q4 10:01
    Thunder turnover
  69. Q4 10:15
    Aaron Wiggins defensive rebound
  70. Q4 10:17
    Kel'el Ware misses two point turnaround hook shot
  71. Q4 10:32
    Thunder lineup change (Cason Wallace, Chet Holmgren, Ajay Mitchell, Aaron Wiggins, Jaylin Williams)
  72. Q4 10:32
    Heat lineup change (Norman Powell, Kel'el Ware, Dru Smith, Andrew Wiggins, Pelle Larsson)
  73. Q4 10:32
    Heat lineup change (Norman Powell, Kel'el Ware, Dru Smith, Andrew Wiggins, Pelle Larsson)
  74. Q4 11:00
    Heat misses two point jump shot
  75. Q4 11:09
    Myron Gardner defensive rebound
  76. Q4 11:22
    Heat misses two point jump shot
  77. Q3 00:00
    Heat offensive rebound
  78. Q3 00:00
    End of 3rd Quarter.
  79. Q3 00:14
    Thunder turnover
  80. Q3 00:14
    Thunder lineup change (Cason Wallace, Ajay Mitchell, Alex Caruso, Aaron Wiggins, Jaylin Williams)
  81. Q3 00:26
    Nikola Jovic misses regular free throw 1 of 2
  82. Q3 00:26
    Thunder personal foul
  83. Q3 00:26
    Thunder lineup change (Ajay Mitchell, Isaiah Joe, Aaron Wiggins, Jaylin Williams, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander)
  84. Q3 00:31
    Thunder misses two point jump shot
  85. Q3 00:51
    +2
    Heat makes two point jump shot
    120-122
  86. Q3 00:51
    Stoppage (Equipment malfunction)
  87. Q3 00:52
    Heat misses two point jump shot
  88. Q3 1:10
    Thunder offensive rebound
  89. Q3 1:28
    +1
    Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes regular free throw 2 of 2
    111-111
  90. Q3 1:43
    Heat 60 second timeout
  91. Q3 1:43
    +1
    Dru Smith makes regular free throw 1 of 2
    120-122
  92. Q3 1:43
    +1
    Dru Smith makes regular free throw 2 of 2
    120-122
  93. Q3 2:04
    Thunder misses two point jump shot
  94. Q3 2:22
    +2
    Thunder makes two point jump shot
    92-90
  95. Q3 2:26
    Shai Gilgeous-Alexander offensive rebound
  96. Q3 2:29
    Kel'el Ware blocks Jaylin Williams's two point jump shot
  97. Q3 3:02
    Heat personal foul
  98. Q3 3:02
    +1
    Isaiah Joe makes regular free throw 1 of 2
    92-90
  99. Q3 3:14
    Simone Fontecchio misses three point jump shot
  100. Q3 3:23
    Thunder personal foul
  101. Q3 3:42
    Isaiah Joe shooting foul (Dru Smith draws the foul)
  102. Q3 3:42
    Heat offensive rebound
  103. Q3 3:42
    +1
    Dru Smith makes regular free throw 2 of 2
    120-122
  104. Q3 3:42
    Heat lineup change (Simone Fontecchio, Kel'el Ware, Dru Smith, Nikola Jovic, Myron Gardner)
  105. Q3 3:53
    +3
    Aaron Wiggins makes three point jump shot
    111-111
  106. Q3 4:18
    Stoppage (Out of bounds)
  107. Q3 4:35
    Heat violation
  108. Q3 4:45
    Nikola Jovic misses three point jump shot
  109. Q3 4:48
    +1
    Pelle Larsson makes technical free throw 1 of 1
    120-122
  110. Q3 4:55
    Bam Adebayo defensive rebound
  111. Q3 4:58
    Heat lineup change (Dru Smith, Pelle Larsson, Nikola Jovic, Bam Adebayo, Myron Gardner)
  112. Q3 4:58
    +1
    Isaiah Joe makes regular free throw 1 of 2
    111-111
  113. Q3 4:58
    Isaiah Joe misses regular free throw 2 of 2
  114. Q3 4:58
    Heat personal foul
  115. Q3 5:04
    Simone Fontecchio offensive rebound
  116. Q3 5:21
    Thunder misses two point jump shot
  117. Q3 5:21
    Alex Caruso misses regular free throw 1 of 2
  118. Q3 5:47
    Chet Holmgren turnover (Bam Adebayo steals)
  119. Q3 5:55
    Chet Holmgren defensive rebound
  120. Q3 6:11
    +1
    Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes regular free throw 1 of 2
    92-90
  121. Q3 6:11
    Kasparas Jakucionis personal foul (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander draws the foul)
  122. Q3 6:15
    Chet Holmgren defensive rebound
  123. Q3 6:17
    Bam Adebayo misses two point jump shot
  124. Q3 6:46
    Heat turnover
  125. Q3 6:46
    Thunder lineup change (Chet Holmgren, Alex Caruso, Isaiah Joe, Aaron Wiggins, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander)
  126. Q3 7:44
    +3
    Heat makes three point jump shot
    99-97
  127. Q3 7:47
    Bam Adebayo offensive rebound
  128. Q3 8:26
    +2
    Heat makes two point jump shot
    99-97
  129. Q3 8:29
    Stoppage (Out of bounds)
  130. Q3 8:34
    Norman Powell defensive rebound
  131. Q3 8:47
    Chet Holmgren defensive rebound
  132. Q3 8:50
    Bam Adebayo misses two point jump shot
  133. Q3 9:04
    Luguentz Dort misses three point jump shot
  134. Q3 9:21
    Kasparas Jakucionis defensive rebound
  135. Q3 9:24
    Thunder misses two point jump shot
  136. Q3 9:29
    Luguentz Dort defensive rebound
  137. Q3 9:30
    Andrew Wiggins offensive rebound
  138. Q3 9:32
    Andrew Wiggins offensive rebound
  139. Q3 9:34
    Heat misses two point jump shot
  140. Q3 9:59
    Heat personal foul
  141. Q3 10:45
    Heat misses two point jump shot
  142. Q3 10:45
    Stoppage (Out of bounds)
  143. Q3 10:48
    Norman Powell defensive rebound
  144. Q3 11:12
    +3
    Norman Powell makes three point jump shot (Pelle Larsson assists)
    95-95
  145. Q3 11:35
    Heat personal foul
  146. Q3 12:00
    Thunder lineup change (Cason Wallace, Chet Holmgren, Luguentz Dort, Ajay Mitchell, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander)
  147. Q3 12:00
    Heat lineup change (Norman Powell, Andrew Wiggins, Pelle Larsson, Kasparas Jakucionis, Bam Adebayo)
  148. Q2 00:54
    Bam Adebayo defensive rebound
  149. Q2 1:04
    +1
    Norman Powell makes regular free throw 2 of 2
    58-57
  150. Q2 1:04
    Thunder personal foul
  151. Q2 1:04
    Heat offensive rebound
  152. Q2 1:11
    +1
    Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes regular free throw 1 of 2
    65-60
  153. Q2 1:26
    Jaylin Williams personal foul
  154. Q2 1:34
    Myron Gardner blocks Luguentz Dort's two point driving floating jump shot
  155. Q2 1:49
    Bam Adebayo defensive rebound
  156. Q2 1:52
    Cason Wallace misses two point driving floating jump shot
  157. Q2 2:14
    +3
    Heat makes three point jump shot
    58-57
  158. Q2 2:15
    Myron Gardner defensive rebound
  159. Q2 2:24
    Heat misses two point jump shot
  160. Q2 2:26
    Bam Adebayo offensive rebound
  161. Q2 2:36
    Heat personal foul
  162. Q2 2:36
    +1
    Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes regular free throw 1 of 2
    58-57
  163. Q2 2:36
    +1
    Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes regular free throw 2 of 2
    58-57
  164. Q2 2:36
    Heat lineup change (Norman Powell, Andrew Wiggins, Kasparas Jakucionis, Bam Adebayo, Myron Gardner)
  165. Q2 2:52
    +1
    Simone Fontecchio makes regular free throw 1 of 2
    58-57
  166. Q2 2:52
    Thunder lineup change (Cason Wallace, Luguentz Dort, Alex Caruso, Jaylin Williams, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander)
  167. Q2 2:52
    +1
    Simone Fontecchio makes regular free throw 2 of 2
    58-57
  168. Q2 3:10
    Andrew Wiggins defensive rebound
  169. Q2 3:13
    Isaiah Joe misses three point jump shot
  170. Q2 3:29
    +3
    Heat makes three point jump shot
    58-57
  171. Q2 3:36
    Heat misses two point jump shot
  172. Q2 3:57
    +2
    Thunder makes two point jump shot
    58-57
  173. Q2 4:35
    +2
    Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes two point jump shot
    54-49
  174. Q2 5:08
    Heat misses three point jump shot
  175. Q2 5:39
    Thunder 60 second timeout
  176. Q2 5:39
    Thunder lineup change (Luguentz Dort, Isaiah Joe, Aaron Wiggins, Jaylin Williams, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander)
  177. Q2 5:47
    Thunder turnover
  178. Q2 6:21
    Heat 60 second timeout
  179. Q2 6:24
    +3
    Isaiah Joe makes three point running jump shot (Jalen Williams assists)
    52-40
  180. Q2 6:24
    Thunder misses three point jump shot
  181. Q2 6:32
    Heat misses three point jump shot
  182. Q2 6:41
    Kel'el Ware defensive rebound
  183. Q2 6:53
    Thunder defensive rebound
  184. Q2 6:53
    Simone Fontecchio offensive rebound
  185. Q2 6:53
    Simone Fontecchio misses two point jump shot
  186. Q2 6:55
    Heat misses two point jump shot
  187. Q2 7:10
    Jalen Williams violation
  188. Q2 7:10
    Heat lineup change (Simone Fontecchio, Kel'el Ware, Andrew Wiggins, Pelle Larsson, Kasparas Jakucionis)
  189. Q2 7:45
    +2
    Heat makes two point jump shot
    52-40
  190. Q2 8:06
    Kel'el Ware misses two point tip dunk
  191. Q2 8:06
    Aaron Wiggins defensive rebound
  192. Q2 8:13
    Dru Smith misses two point driving floating jump shot
  193. Q2 8:27
    Instant replay (Challenge)
  194. Q2 8:27
    Dru Smith blocks Jalen Williams's two point driving layup
  195. Q2 8:27
    Heat defensive rebound
  196. Q2 8:27
    Jalen Williams turnover (out of bounds lost ball)
  197. Q2 8:29
    Chet Holmgren defensive rebound
  198. Q2 8:33
    Heat misses two point jump shot
  199. Q2 8:42
    Norman Powell shooting foul (Chet Holmgren draws the foul)
  200. Q2 8:42
    +1
    Chet Holmgren makes regular free throw 2 of 2
    46-38
  201. Q2 8:58
    Thunder personal foul
  202. Q2 9:24
    +2
    Pelle Larsson makes two point jump shot
    42-36
  203. Q2 9:42
    Thunder turnover
  204. Q2 9:59
    +3
    Heat makes three point jump shot
    42-34
  205. Q2 10:06
    Kel'el Ware defensive rebound
  206. Q2 10:25
    Isaiah Joe defensive rebound
  207. Q2 10:33
    Dru Smith defensive rebound
  208. Q2 10:35
    Thunder misses two point jump shot
  209. Q2 10:45
    Heat misses two point jump shot
  210. Q2 11:06
    +2
    Thunder makes two point jump shot
    42-31
  211. Q2 11:21
    Norman Powell misses regular free throw 2 of 2
  212. Q2 11:24
    Stoppage (Out of bounds)
  213. Q2 12:00
    Thunder lineup change (Jalen Williams, Chet Holmgren, Ajay Mitchell, Isaiah Joe, Aaron Wiggins)
  214. Q1 00:25
    +2
    Thunder makes two point jump shot
    37-28
  215. Q1 00:29
    Heat turnover
  216. Q1 00:36
    Thunder misses two point jump shot
  217. Q1 00:47
    Jaylin Williams defensive rebound
  218. Q1 1:31
    +3
    Heat makes three point jump shot
    33-28
  219. Q1 1:41
    Kel'el Ware defensive rebound
  220. Q1 1:43
    Thunder misses three point jump shot
  221. Q1 1:54
    Thunder defensive rebound
  222. Q1 1:54
    Heat misses two point jump shot
  223. Q1 2:39
    +2
    Thunder makes two point jump shot
    31-23
  224. Q1 2:40
    Heat 60 second timeout
  225. Q1 2:40
    Heat lineup change (Norman Powell, Simone Fontecchio, Kel'el Ware, Dru Smith, Nikola Jovic)
  226. Q1 2:53
    Heat misses three point jump shot
  227. Q1 3:04
    Andrew Wiggins defensive rebound
  228. Q1 3:16
    Heat misses three point jump shot
  229. Q1 3:44
    Heat misses two point jump shot
  230. Q1 4:18
    +2
    Heat makes two point jump shot
    26-23
  231. Q1 4:21
    Simone Fontecchio offensive rebound
  232. Q1 4:29
    Heat offensive rebound
  233. Q1 4:29
    Stoppage (Out of bounds)
  234. Q1 4:43
    Thunder turnover
  235. Q1 4:44
    Thunder lineup change (Cason Wallace, Ajay Mitchell, Alex Caruso, Jaylin Williams, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander)
  236. Q1 5:08
    +2
    Heat makes two point jump shot
    26-21
  237. Q1 5:09
    Andrew Wiggins offensive rebound
  238. Q1 5:29
    +2
    Thunder makes two point jump shot
    26-19
  239. Q1 5:37
    Jalen Williams defensive rebound
  240. Q1 5:50
    +2
    Thunder makes two point jump shot
    24-19
  241. Q1 6:15
    Heat misses two point jump shot
  242. Q1 7:07
    +3
    Heat makes three point jump shot
    17-14
  243. Q1 7:13
    Stoppage (Out of bounds)
  244. Q1 7:45
    +2
    Heat makes two point jump shot
    14-11
  245. Q1 8:00
    +3
    Thunder makes three point jump shot
    14-9
  246. Q1 8:04
    Jalen Williams offensive rebound
  247. Q1 8:04
    Chet Holmgren misses two point alley-oop dunk
  248. Q1 8:21
    +1
    Bam Adebayo makes regular free throw 2 of 2
    11-9
  249. Q1 8:25
    Pelle Larsson defensive rebound
  250. Q1 9:09
    Norman Powell misses three point jump shot
  251. Q1 9:27
    +2
    Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes two point turnaround jump shot
    9-4
  252. Q1 9:46
    Kasparas Jakucionis defensive rebound
  253. Q1 9:52
    Shai Gilgeous-Alexander misses three point jump shot
  254. Q1 10:16
    +2
    Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes two point stepback jump shot
    6-4
  255. Q1 10:16
    Bam Adebayo shooting foul (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander draws the foul)
  256. Q1 10:38
    +1
    Cason Wallace makes regular free throw 2 of 2
    4-2
  257. Q1 10:38
    Pelle Larsson shooting foul (Cason Wallace draws the foul)
  258. Q1 10:42
    Norman Powell misses two point fadeaway jump shot
  259. Q1 10:48
    Heat offensive rebound
  260. Q1 11:06
    +2
    Cason Wallace makes two point running layup
    2-2
  261. Q1 11:10
    Cason Wallace defensive rebound
  262. Q1 11:40
    +2
    Bam Adebayo makes two point turnaround hook shot
    0-2
  263. Q1 11:59
    Thunder offensive rebound
  264. Q1 12:00
    Thunder lineup change (Jalen Williams, Cason Wallace, Chet Holmgren, Luguentz Dort, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander)
  265. Q1 12:00
    Heat lineup change (Norman Powell, Andrew Wiggins, Pelle Larsson, Kasparas Jakucionis, Bam Adebayo)
Box Score
Thunder
PosPlayerPts
Heat
PosPlayerPts

Thunder vs. Heat: Detailed Breakdown

Matchup Overview

  • Teams: Thunder vs. Heat
  • Date: Saturday, January 17, 2026
  • Time: 8:00 PM ET
  • Venue: Kaseya Center

Current Betting Odds

  • Spread: Thunder favored at -10.5
  • Total (Over/Under): 235.5
  • Moneyline Odds: Thunder -460, Heat +430

Dimers' Win Probabilities

  • Thunder: 78%
  • Heat: 22%

Dimers' predictive model, renowned for its accuracy, assesses each team's chances by simulating the outcome of the game 10,000 times. This method provides a precise and unbiased view.

Projected Final Score

Our predicted final score for this NBA matchup is Thunder 121-112 Heat.

This prediction is based on each team's average score following 10,000 game simulations.

Our Prediction: Who Wins?

After extensive simulations, our model gives the Thunder a win probability of 78%, while the Heat have a win probability of 22%. Discover the best spread, over/under, and moneyline odds for the game on this page.

Summary

According to our analysis, the Thunder are more likely to beat the Heat in the NBA game at Kaseya Center on Sunday. Discover the best spread, over/under and moneyline odds, picks and probabilities for the game on this page.

Our Thunder vs. Heat predictions, based on sophisticated simulations and current data, guide you in making informed decisions. Remember to bet responsibly and within your financial limits.

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