NBA picks today: Saturday's best bets include Thunder vs. Heat play [1/17/2026]

Heat +9 (-106)

• Edge: 4.1%
• Probability: 55.5%
• Matchup: Thunder vs. Heat (8:00PM ET, Saturday)

Our model has identified value on Heat +9 at -106 odds. A 55.5% probability produces an edge of 4.1%, making this the strongest play for today's NBA slate.

Warriors ML (-230)

• Edge: 3.5%
• Probability: 73.2%
• Matchup: Hornets vs. Warriors (8:30PM ET, Saturday)

Warriors ML carries a 3.5% edge and a probability of 73.2% at -230 odds, according to our model.

Mavericks ML (-166)

• Edge: 3.4%
• Probability: 65.8%
• Matchup: Jazz vs. Mavericks (5:00PM ET, Saturday)

Mavericks ML at -166 odds shows a 3.4% edge, supported by a 65.8% probability in simulations.

Pacers +12.5 (-110)

• Edge: 3.1%
• Probability: 55.5%
• Matchup: Pacers vs. Pistons (7:30PM ET, Saturday)

A 3.1% edge and 55.5% probability make Pacers +12.5 vs. Pistons at a value play in the Pacers vs. Pistons matchup, per our model.

Knicks ML (-154)

• Edge: 2.6%
• Probability: 63.3%
• Matchup: Suns vs. Knicks (7:30PM ET, Saturday)

Knicks ML at -154 odds presents a 2.6% edge, with simulations resulting in a probability of 63.3%.

Wizards +13 (-110)

• Edge: 2.6%
• Probability: 55%
• Matchup: Wizards vs. Nuggets (9:00PM ET, Saturday)

Our model finds value on Wizards +13 at -110 odds, supported by an edge of 2.6%.

Jazz vs. Mavericks under 241.5 points (-105)

• Edge: 2.4%
• Probability: 53.6%
• Matchup: Jazz vs. Mavericks (5:00PM ET, Saturday)

Our model has uncovered value on Jazz vs. Mavericks under 241.5 points at -105 odds. A 53.6% probability produces a 2.4% edge, making this a strong play for today's NBA action.

NBA best bets summary: Saturday, 1/17/2026

As of 2:31AM ET, here are our top NBA bets by edge recommended by our model:

Matchup	Bet	Odds	Edge	Probability
Thunder vs. Heat	Heat +9	-106 @ FanDuel	4.1%	55.5%
Hornets vs. Warriors	Warriors ML	-230 @ FanDuel	3.5%	73.2%
Jazz vs. Mavericks	Mavericks ML	-166 @ FanDuel	3.4%	65.8%
Pacers vs. Pistons	Pacers +12.5	-110 @ BetMGM	3.1%	55.5%
Suns vs. Knicks	Knicks ML	-154 @ FanDuel	2.6%	63.3%
Wizards vs. Nuggets	Wizards +13	-110 @ FanDuel	2.6%	55%
Jazz vs. Mavericks	Under 241.5 Points	-105 @ BetMGM	2.4%	53.6%

List of upcoming NBA games to bet on [1/17/2026]

• Jazz vs. Mavericks (5:00PM ET, Saturday)
• Pacers vs. Pistons (7:30PM ET, Saturday)
• Celtics vs. Hawks (7:30PM ET, Saturday)
• Suns vs. Knicks (7:30PM ET, Saturday)
• Thunder vs. Heat (8:00PM ET, Saturday)
• Timberwolves vs. Spurs (8:00PM ET, Saturday)
• Hornets vs. Warriors (8:30PM ET, Saturday)
• Wizards vs. Nuggets (9:00PM ET, Saturday)
• Lakers vs. Trail Blazers (10:00PM ET, Saturday)

Meet Dimebot, Dimers’ AI assistant

See how you can use Dimebot to ask questions, clarify data, and streamline your betting research.

Conclusion

Our NBA best bets are locked and loaded for January 17, 2026, featuring plays such as Heat +9 and Warriors ML. Powered by advanced simulations, these picks are here to boost your betting game.

This article, enhanced by AI and automation, aims to deliver accurate NBA insights quickly, with human oversight ensuring high editorial quality. Our predictions are rooted in current data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

All odds and probabilities in this article are correct and accurate at the time of publication.

Note: Clicking links to our sportsbook partners may earn us a referral fee. Learn about how we review products and services.