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NBA first basket picks and predictions for Saturday, January 17, 2026
Updated: | First published:
Written by Nick Slade, Chief Content Officer
Get first basket predictions today backed by expert analysis of NBA slate on 1/17.
Our NBA first basket picks and predictions for today—Saturday, January 17, 2026—are live with the Lakers' LeBron James projected as the most likely player to score first.
Dimers’ first basket projections draw on key first basket stats, including player efficiency, shot frequency, and expected starting lineups, forming part of our daily NBA player projections.
James, Victor Wembanyama and Shaedon Sharpe lead Saturday’s most likely first basket scorers, while we also feature tonight's best first basket value picks by comparing real-time odds to model-generated probabilities.
NBA first basket predictions tonight (January 17, 2026)
| Player | Team | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| LeBron James | Lakers | 18.3% |
| Victor Wembanyama | Spurs | 17.6% |
| Shaedon Sharpe | Trail Blazers | 15.4% |
| Jalen Brunson | Knicks | 15.3% |
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander | Thunder | 15.2% |
| Pascal Siakam | Pacers | 14.9% |
| Jaylen Brown | Celtics | 14.7% |
| Stephen Curry | Warriors | 14.3% |
| Jamal Murray | Nuggets | 13.9% |
| LaMelo Ball | Hornets | 13.9% |
| Jalen Duren | Pistons | 13.8% |
| Norman Powell | Heat | 13.7% |
| Julius Randle | Timberwolves | 13.3% |
| Dillon Brooks | Suns | 12.9% |
| Devin Booker | Suns | 12.8% |
NBA first basket picks today (January 17, 2026)
| Player | Team | Edge | Odds | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Naji Marshall | Mavericks | 3.1% | +950 | 12.7% |
| Tyler Herro | Heat | 2.5% | +1000 | 11.6% |
| Justin Champagnie | Wizards | 2.5% | +1100 | 10.8% |
| Jalen Brunson | Knicks | 2.0% | +650 | 15.3% |
| Jay Huff | Pacers | 1.4% | +900 | 11.4% |
| Jalen Duren | Pistons | 1.3% | +700 | 13.8% |
| Norman Powell | Heat | 1.2% | +700 | 13.7% |
| Dillon Brooks | Suns | 0.4% | +700 | 12.9% |
| Anfernee Simons | Celtics | 0.2% | +800 | 11.3% |
| Shaedon Sharpe | Trail Blazers | 0.0% | +550 | 15.4% |
Edges represent the difference between model probability and implied odds.
For more insights on prop markets and value plays across the league, explore our full list of NBA prop bets for 1/17.
Conclusion: Betting on today's NBA first basket
For Saturday, January 17, 2026, LeBron James, Victor Wembanyama and Shaedon Sharpe lead our first basket projections, while Naji Marshall shapes as the strongest value play at +950. All picks and predictions are derived from Dimers’ NBA first basket model.
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Nick Slade, with nearly two decades of experience, is the Chief Content Officer at Cipher Sports Technology Group, overseeing content for Dimers. He specializes in soccer, NBA, and NHL betting, leveraging predictive analytics and machine learning to provide accurate betting insights.
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