Thunder vs. Pacers prediction: Why Oklahoma City is favored to win Thursday's NBA matchup [10/23/2025]

The Indiana Pacers will square off with the favored Oklahoma City Thunder in NBA action at Gainbridge Fieldhouse on Thursday, beginning at 7:30PM ET.

Based on the latest simulations and today’s injury news, Dimers' advanced NBA model projects the Thunder as the most likely winner of the Thunder vs. Pacers game.

This prediction follows the latest NBA Injury Report, which suggests the Pacers lineup will feature players like Pascal Siakam, Bennedict Mathurin and Aaron Nesmith, while the Thunder will rely on Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Chet Holmgren and Aaron Wiggins.

This article offers a closer look at Thursday's matchup, including an expanded look at the predicted score, best bets and player prop picks.

Thunder vs. Pacers prediction: Who will win, cover the spread?

Using innovative machine learning and statistical analysis, we have simulated the outcome of Thursday's NBA matchup between the Thunder and Pacers 10,000 times as part of our NBA predictions coverage.

Our leading predictive model currently gives the Thunder a 75% chance of beating the Pacers. Our predicted final score has the Thunder winning 119-111.

According to our model, the Thunder (-7.5) have a 51% chance of covering the spread, while the 231.5-point over/under has a 53% chance of staying under.

Thunder vs. Pacers odds

We have sourced the best NBA odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Thunder vs. Pacers picks and best bet

After matching our probabilities against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

According to our NBA best bets, the top play to make on this game is Under 231.5 total points.

Thunder vs. Pacers player props

NBA player props are an enjoyable way to wager on Thursday's Oklahoma City vs. Indiana game without necessarily betting on the outcome. We use the best information available to project how each team's leading players will perform at Gainbridge Fieldhouse.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is expected to lead the Thunder with 30 points, 5 rebounds and 7 assists, while Pascal Siakam is projected to have 21 points, 7 rebounds and 4 assists for the Pacers.

Check out our NBA player projections for a full range of projected box scores, including points, assists, rebounds and more, for every game this season.

Thunder prediction

Our model's projected player stats for the Thunder are:

Pacers prediction

Projected points, rebounds, assists and three-pointers made for the Pacers:

Thunder vs. Pacers game-day updates and essential details

Thursday's action between the Pacers and Thunder at Gainbridge Fieldhouse is scheduled to start at 7:30PM ET.

• Who: Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Indiana Pacers
• Date: Thursday, October 23, 2025
• Time: 7:30PM ET/4:30PM PT
• Venue: Gainbridge Fieldhouse

Conclusion

We predict the Thunder, with a 75% win probability, will likely beat the Pacers on Thursday.

AI and automation have enhanced this article to quickly deliver accurate Thunder vs. Pacers insights, with human oversight ensuring high editorial quality. Our predictions are based on the latest data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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