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UNC vs. SMU prediction: North Carolina favored to win men's college basketball matchup [1/3/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Dave Garofolo, Content Producer
Get UNC vs SMU predictions for college basketball Saturday.
SMU will face UNC, in what is expected to be a tight Men's College Basketball game, at Moody Coliseum on Saturday, starting at 2:15 PM ET.
Based on the latest simulations, Dimers' proven college basketball model gives North Carolina a slight edge with a 51% win probability over SMU.
This article offers an expanded analysis of Saturday's UNC vs. SMU matchup, including an expanded look at the predicted score, best bets and picks.
UNC vs. SMU prediction: Who will win and cover?
Using trusted machine learning and data, we have simulated the result of Saturday's NCAA basketball game between UNC and SMU 10,000 times as part of our men's college basketball predictions coverage.
Our leading predictive model gives North Carolina a 51% chance of defeating SMU. Our predicted final score has North Carolina winning 79-78.
According to our model, North Carolina (+1.5) has a 53% chance of covering the spread, while the over/under total of 156.5 points has a 53% chance of going over.
UNC vs. SMU odds
We have researched the best men's college basketball odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | UNC | SMU |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | +1.5 (-110) | -1.5 (+104) |
| Moneyline | +100 | -115 |
| Total | o156.5 (-110) | u156.5 (-110) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
UNC vs. SMU picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | North Carolina +1.5 | -110 |
| Moneyline | North Carolina | +100 |
| Total | Over 156.5 | -110 |
According to our best men's college basketball bets, the top play to make on this game is Over 156.5 total points.
UNC vs. SMU game-day updates and essential details
Saturday's men's college basketball action between SMU and UNC at Moody Coliseum is scheduled to commence at 2:15 PM ET.
- Who: North Carolina vs. SMU
- Date: Saturday, January 3, 2026
- Time: 2:15 PM ET/11:15AM PT
- Venue: Moody Coliseum
Conclusion
We predict North Carolina, with a 51% win probability, will likely beat SMU on Saturday.
AI and automation have enhanced this article to quickly deliver accurate North Carolina vs. SMU insights, with human oversight ensuring high editorial quality. Our predictions are sourced from up-to-date data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.
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Dave Garofolo uses sophisticated AI-driven analytics to make predictions and evaluate player performances in the NBA, MLB, NFL, NHL, NCAAM, and PGA TOUR tournaments, crafting insightful game and prop previews.
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