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NFL Thursday Night Football: Week 4 2022 And The Search For Early Positive Expected Value

We're breaking down exactly what makes our DimersBOT super computer the ultimate sports betting tool for Week 4 of the 2022 NFL season, by giving you picks and betting strategies to help you get ahead and find that ever elusive thing called value. Today we're looking at Thursday Night Football between the Miami Dolphins and the Cincinnati Bengals on September 29, 2022.

What is DimersBOT?

A heavyweight of the sports betting world, DimersBOT is a sophisticated gambling robot sent back through time to change the future for one lucky generation of sports bettors, us! It runs over 10,000 sports betting simulations of every major pro and college sport on the planet, including the NFL, and continually updates based on everything from weather, to question marks over a player's availability.

NFL Week 4 Betting Strategy: Finding Expected Value

Positive Expected Value (+EV) wagering is absolutely fundamental to becoming a successful sports bettor and is something that most recreational bettors, also known as '"the public", don’t fully understand. DimersBOT, on the otherhand, is a sophisticated gambling robot that does the research for you, listing all its +EV bets on the Quick Picks and Prop Bets pages free of charge.

Appreciating the importance of +EV, DimersBOT evaluates the lines and probabilities set by the oddsmakers (or, by extension, the sportsbooks) the second they are available, to assess whether a bet is value (+EV) or not (-EV).

The most successful NFL bettors make it their priority to identify this expected value, or +EV, as early in the week as possible. Because, by the time Thursday rolls around, the sportsbooks have almost always adjusted their lines based on the volume of bets coming for either side. In really efficient markets like the NFL, positive EV bets, aka "value bets", are usually only available for a few hours, before those bettors known as "the sharps" snap them up and move the line.

However, that won't stop us helping the common man.

Below, we breakdown the three most popular bet types to see if we can't unearth a gem worth betting in Thursday Night Football.

Dolphins vs. Bengals Predictions

  • Final Score: Dolphins 21 - 25 Bengals
  • Moneyline Prediction: Bengals
  • Points Spread Prediction: Dolphins +4
  • Over/Under Points Total: Under 47

The Difference Between Predictions and Suggested Bets

A prediction is, well, exactly that. DimersBOT can help us predict what will happen in thousands of different sports and events each and every year, but that doesn't mean we should necessarily bet them. While DimersBOT is predicting the Bengals to win this game, it's also suggesting we don't throw down our cash and wager on them.

A suggested bet is where we have matched DimersBOT's predictions vs. the sportsbooks odds and identified an edge, or +EV. The bigger the edge, the better. Tread carefully, though, as edges - or positive expected value - are usually more prevalent on the underdog, as the oddsmakers are happier to take them on, rather than take on the favorite.

Watch the latest episode of The Early Dime to get the edge on suggested bets for Week 4!

Moneyline

After 10,000 simulations of this Thursday Night Football clash, DimersBOT has determined that the final score will be Cincinnati 25 to the Dolphins 21. While the super computer is big on the Cincinnati Bengals to win their NFL Week 4 matchup against the 3-0 Miami Dolphins, that doesn't necessarily make them worth betting at the moneyline. Why, you ask? Read on...

Based on all available information and DimersBOTs predictions, the Bengals would need to be moneyline odds of -178 or better in this game to have any of that +EV we mentioned above. At their current odds of -195 they are actually deemed to have negative expected value (or -EV). So, does that mean we should bet the Dolphins then? Nope...

To bet the Dolphins with positive expected value, you'd need moneyline odds of +177 or better, not the current +175 on offer. While there isn't much in it, if we're staying true to the principles of +EV then we're not placing that bet until we can get at least +177 somewhere. This is one of many reasons why we all need multiple online sportsbook accounts. "Line-shopping" is very, very important in our search for positive expected value.

Points Spread

In terms of the Points Spread, DimersBOT has the Bengals winning by 4 points, so with the consensus line having the Bengals as the -4 point favorite it means there is no edge either way and certainly no positive EV, or Expected Value, to warrant a bet against the spread.

Over/Under

When you consider DimersBOT's predicted final score is 25 - 21, and the fact there is no +EV available on either team at the moneyline or the spread, the play in this one is to attack the Points Total of 47. Based on the 54% chance we give this game of staying under the current 47 points line, the true odds for this bet should be -118.

So, when you compare that to the -107 odds on offer at PointsBet, guess what you have? Yep, POSITIVE EXPECTED VALUE... and lots of it.

Suggested Bet: Dolphins-Bengals UNDER 47 points at -107 with PointsBet.

 

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