NFL Saturday Parlay: Four prop picks in Eagles-Commanders and Packers-Bears at +1929 odds

Week 16 in the NFL is here and the action continued with a pair of Saturday divisional games between the Philadelphia Eagles vs. Washington Commanders and Green Bay Packers vs. Chicago Bears on December 20.

To have some fun with these games while utilizing our suite of Dimers Pro NFL tools, we've crafted a four-leg parlay using two picks from each game - one TD scorer and one bet that gets our brand-new "Sweet Spot" signal.

We analyze the best NFL props, touchdown predictions and matchup data to determine the legs worth betting in a same game parlay, with this one clocking in at +1929 odds.

A Dimers Pro subscription grants you complete access to the tools mentioned above, as well as our  NFL Player Projections hub complete with boxscores and fantasy projections, NFL predictions, our brand-new Dimebot betting assistant and more.

As mentioned, we've used our model's NFL predictions to build a +1929 odds NFL Parlay over on DraftKings Sportsbook, where new users can claim up to a $200 DraftKings bonus when they sign up.

NFL parlay tonight - Saturday, December 20

After simulating tonight's games over 10,000 times, our model has identified the following projections and probabilities for the parlay picks that make up our four-leg parlay in Eagles-Commanders and Packers-Bears on Saturday.

Leg 1: Eagles-Commanders over 44.5

Our first leg is a bet that was featured on this week's Dimers Sports Betting Podcast as one of our top edges of the week.

With a 54.6% probability of going over 44.5 points in Eagles-Commanders, this play grades with a 3.4% edge and also lands in our Sweet Spot - NFL Totals in this edge range have returned a 10.7% ROI over 40 bets this season, identifying a consistent profit for the Dimers model.

The Commanders have gone over this Total in nine games thanks to their bottom-ranked defense, while the Eagles have cleared this six times, but let opponents score 20+ points in three straight games before their get-right spot vs. Las Vegas last week.

Philly will look to ride their momentum after one of their best offensive outings of the year, and Washington owns an offense capable of moving the ball against better defenses, even with Marcus Mariota under center.

Leg 2: A.J. Brown anytime TD scorer

To go along with the scoring, we'll back the Eagles' top wide receiver to record a touchdown.

A.J. Brown has been at the center of plenty of the Eagles' drama this year, whether inadvertently or not, but has been on fire lately.

He has four touchdowns and three 100+ yards games in his past four with double-digit targets in all but their most recent, when Philly simply didn't have to pass aggressively in a 31-0 blowout.

Brown gets a 42.1% probability to score a touchdown, third-highest in this game, but is at plus-money odds, unlike Saquon Barkley and Jalen Hurts who are still under 50% (fair odds at +100) to score.

He lands as a three-category target in this week's Touchdown Matrix and projects as the top-ranked receiver in this game according to the Dimers model.

Leg 3: Bears Moneyline vs. Packers

We move to the second game of the night, an NFC North clash with major divisional implications and a strong 55.7% probability play from the Dimers model.

Both teams have a chance to win the division title, with Chicago holding a narrow half-game lead over Green Bay, and a win today putting them 1.5 games up, just one more win away from locking down their top-4 spot in the playoffs, and an outside shot at the 1-seed.

Unfortunately for the Packers, it looks like an uphill battle, with star pass-rusher Micah Parsons now out for the season with a torn ACL, and RB1 Josh Jacobs dealing with a recurring knee injury, making the Bears 1.5-point favorites on Saturday night.

The Dimers model doesn't give them a big edge, getting just about fair odds at -125 on DraftKings, but this play lands in the Sweet Spot, with NFL moneylines at a low edge returning a 14.2% ROI over 42 bets this season.

Leg 4: Christian Watson anytime TD scorer

To close out this parlay, we're looking at another top wideout to score a touchdown, Christian Watson for the Green Bay Packers.

Watson is listed as questionable after leaving last game early, but looks to have avoided significant injury and sounds optimistic about his chances of playing.

The fourth-year wideout made his season debut in Week 8 and has been one of the NFL's top WRs since, recording five touchdowns in his past five games, three games with 80+ yards and long catches of 33, 41, 51 and 52 as one of the biggest playmakers in the league.

He recorded 2 TDs vs. the Bears just two weeks ago, hauling in all four of his targets for 89 yards, a season high.

Chicago has allowed 1.1 TDs and 157.0 yards per game to wide receivers since Week 9 and with Green Bay potentially playing from behind with a banged-up running game, Watson could see an even bigger role.

At +170, Watson is just slightly off our fair odds of +185, but gets a great matchup and remains a top two option for the Packers if Jacobs sits.

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