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Packers vs. Bears prediction: Why Chicago is favored to win in NFL Week 16 [2025]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Jason Bevilacqua, Head of Content and Communities
Get Green Bay Packers vs Chicago Bears predictions for NFL Saturday.
The Chicago Bears will face the Green Bay Packers in NFL Week 16 action at Soldier Field on Saturday, starting at 8:20 PM ET.
Based on updated simulations, Dimers' advanced NFL model projects the Bears as the most likely winner of the Packers vs. Bears game.
This article offers an expanded analysis of this week's matchup, including projected touchdown scorers, best bets and player prop picks.
Packers vs. Bears prediction: Who will win and cover?
Since our Packers-Bears predictions earlier in the week, we have simulated the outcome of Saturday's NFL matchup between the Packers and Bears 10,000 times as part of our NFL predictions coverage.
Our famous predictive model gives the Bears a 56% chance of defeating the Packers in Week 16 of the NFL season. Our predicted final score has the Bears winning 23-21.
According to our model, the bookmakers have got it right, and the Packers and Bears each have a 50% chance of covering the spread, while the over/under total of 44.5 points has a 53% chance of going over.
To see win probabilities for every matchup this week, check out our expert NFL Week 16 straight up picks.
Packers vs. Bears odds
We have sourced the best NFL odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Packers | Bears |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | +1.5 (-115) | -1.5 (-104) |
| Moneyline | +100 | -116 |
| Total | o44.5 (-105) | u44.5 (-110) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Packers vs. Bears picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Bears -1.5 | -104 |
| Moneyline | Bears | -116 |
| Total | Over 44.5 | -105 |
According to our best NFL bets, the top play to make on this game is Bears to win.
Packers vs. Bears TD scorers
Who will score a touchdown in Packers vs. Bears?
According to our list of touchdown scorer predictions for today, Josh Jacobs is most likely to score an anytime TD in Packers vs. Bears.
Our projections give Jacobs a 53.8% chance of scoring a TD at Soldier Field, while the running back is an 11.9% chance of scoring the first touchdown the game.
Anytime touchdown scorer predictions
Green Bay Packers
| Player | Anytime TD Probability |
|---|---|
| Josh Jacobs (RB) | 53.8% |
| Christian Watson (WR) | 33.3% |
| Jayden Reed (WR) | 28.1% |
| Romeo Doubs (WR) | 27.0% |
| Emanuel Wilson (RB) | 21.1% |
Chicago Bears
| Player | Anytime TD Probability |
|---|---|
| D'Andre Swift (RB) | 37.0% |
| Kyle Monangai (RB) | 34.9% |
| DJ Moore (WR) | 34.1% |
| Colston Loveland (TE) | 28.7% |
| Olamide Zaccheaus (WR) | 23.1% |
First touchdown scorer predictions
Green Bay Packers
| Player | First TD Probability |
|---|---|
| Josh Jacobs (RB) | 11.9% |
| Christian Watson (WR) | 6.2% |
| Jayden Reed (WR) | 5.1% |
| Romeo Doubs (WR) | 4.9% |
| Emanuel Wilson (RB) | 3.7% |
Chicago Bears
| Player | First TD Probability |
|---|---|
| D'Andre Swift (RB) | 8.5% |
| Kyle Monangai (RB) | 7.9% |
| DJ Moore (WR) | 7.7% |
| Colston Loveland (TE) | 6.2% |
| Olamide Zaccheaus (WR) | 4.8% |
Packers vs Bears player props
Discover our predictions for the players likely to lead in passing, rushing and receiving yards for both the Packers and Bears. Head to our NFL player projections page now to access a full list of player prop projections for every offensive player in this matchup and all other Week 16 games.
Quarterbacks
Of the starting quarterbacks, the Packers' Jordan Love is projected for 237 passing yards, while the Bears' Caleb Williams is expected to throw for 210 yards.
| Player | Proj. Pass Yards |
|---|---|
| Jordan Love (GB) | 237 |
| Caleb Williams (CHI) | 210 |
Packers rushing
| Player | Proj. Rush Yards |
|---|---|
| Josh Jacobs | 63 |
| Emanuel Wilson | 24 |
| Jordan Love | 13 |
Bears rushing
| Player | Proj. Rush Yards |
|---|---|
| D'Andre Swift | 60 |
| Kyle Monangai | 50 |
| Caleb Williams | 20 |
Packers receiving
| Player | Proj. Rec. Yards |
|---|---|
| Christian Watson | 57 |
| Jayden Reed | 45 |
| Romeo Doubs | 38 |
| Luke Musgrave | 25 |
| Matthew Golden | 23 |
Bears receiving
| Player | Proj. Rec. Yards |
|---|---|
| DJ Moore | 50 |
| Colston Loveland | 46 |
| Olamide Zaccheaus | 33 |
| Cole Kmet | 27 |
| D'Andre Swift | 18 |
Packers vs. Bears game-day updates and essential details
The NFL Week 16 action between the Bears and Packers at Soldier Field is scheduled to begin at 8:20 PM ET.
- Who: Green Bay Packers vs. Chicago Bears
- Date: Saturday, December 20, 2025
- Time: 8:20 PM ET/5:20PM PT
- Venue: Soldier Field
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Conclusion
We predict the Bears, with a 56% win probability, will likely beat the Packers in Week 16 of the NFL season.
AI and automation have enhanced this article to quickly deliver accurate Packers vs. Bears insights, with human oversight ensuring high editorial quality. Our predictions are sourced from up-to-date data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.
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Jason Bevilacqua, an expert in MLB, NHL, NBA, MLS, and NFL, delivers game previews, best bets, and props. Since 2020, as Head of Social and Community at Dimers, he has contributed insightful articles utilizing data-driven models and simulations.
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