Eagles vs. Commanders prediction: Why Philadelphia is favored to win in NFL Week 16 [2025]

NFL Week 16 action continues on Saturday at 5:00 PM ET as the Philadelphia Eagles lock horns with the Washington Commanders at Northwest Stadium.

Based on the latest simulations, Dimers' advanced NFL model predicts the Eagles as the most likely winner of the Eagles vs. Commanders game.

This article offers a closer look at Saturday's matchup, including projected touchdown scorers, best bets and player prop picks.

Eagles vs. Commanders prediction: Who will win and cover?

Since our Eagles-Commanders predictions earlier in the week, we have simulated the outcome of Saturday's NFL matchup between the Eagles and Commanders 10,000 times as part of our NFL predictions coverage.

Our famous predictive model currently gives the Eagles a 70% chance of beating the Commanders in Week 16 of the NFL season. Our predicted final score has the Eagles winning 25-19.

According to our model, the Commanders (+7) have a 57% chance of covering the spread, while the 43.5-point over/under has a 58% chance of going over.

To see win probabilities for every matchup this week, check out our expert NFL Week 16 straight up picks.

Eagles vs. Commanders odds

We have sourced the best NFL odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

Bet Type	Eagles	Commanders
Spread	-7 (-114)	+7 (+100)
Moneyline	-350	+300
Total	o43.5 (-110)	u43.5 (-110)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Eagles vs. Commanders picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

Bet Type	Pick	Bet Now
Spread	Commanders +7	+100
Moneyline	Commanders	+300
Total	Over 43.5	-110

According to our NFL best bets, the top play to make on this game is Commanders +7 at the spread.

Eagles vs. Commanders TD scorers

Who will score a touchdown in Eagles vs. Commanders?

According to our list of touchdown scorer predictions for today, Saquon Barkley is most likely to score an anytime touchdown in Eagles vs. Commanders.

Our projections give Barkley a 48.1% chance of getting in for six at Northwest Stadium, while the running back is an 11.5% chance of scoring the first touchdown the game.

Anytime touchdown scorer predictions

Philadelphia Eagles

Player	Anytime TD Probability
Saquon Barkley (RB)	48.1%
Jalen Hurts (QB)	43.4%
A.J. Brown (WR)	41.6%
DeVonta Smith (WR)	33.9%
Dallas Goedert (TE)	33.2%

Washington Commanders

Player	Anytime TD Probability
Chris Rodriguez (RB)	33.5%
Terry McLaurin (WR)	30.1%
Deebo Samuel (WR)	26.3%
Marcus Mariota (QB)	21.2%
Jacory Croskey-Merritt (RB)	19.5%

First touchdown scorer predictions

Philadelphia Eagles

Player	First TD Probability
Saquon Barkley (RB)	11.5%
Jalen Hurts (QB)	10.0%
A.J. Brown (WR)	9.4%
DeVonta Smith (WR)	7.3%
Dallas Goedert (TE)	7.1%

Washington Commanders

Player	First TD Probability
Chris Rodriguez (RB)	7.5%
Terry McLaurin (WR)	6.5%
Deebo Samuel (WR)	5.6%
Marcus Mariota (QB)	4.4%
Jacory Croskey-Merritt (RB)	4.0%

Eagles vs Commanders player props

Discover our predictions for the players likely to lead in passing, rushing and receiving yards for both the Eagles and Commanders. Head to our NFL player projections page now to access a full list of player prop projections for every offensive player in this matchup and all other Week 16 games.

Quarterbacks

Of the starting quarterbacks, the Eagles' Jalen Hurts is projected for 225 passing yards. The Commanders' Marcus Mariota is expected to throw for 204 yards.

Player	Proj. Pass Yards
Jalen Hurts (PHI)	225
Marcus Mariota (WAS)	204

Eagles rushing

Player	Proj. Rush Yards
Saquon Barkley	84
Jalen Hurts	34
Tank Bigsby	16

Commanders rushing

Player	Proj. Rush Yards
Chris Rodriguez	46
Marcus Mariota	36
Jacory Croskey-Merritt	29

Eagles receiving

Player	Proj. Rec. Yards
A.J. Brown	68
DeVonta Smith	63
Dallas Goedert	43
Saquon Barkley	19
Jahan Dotson	15

Commanders receiving

Player	Proj. Rec. Yards
Terry McLaurin	58
Deebo Samuel	48
Treylon Burks	19
Ben Sinnott	18
Jaylin Lane	17

Eagles vs. Commanders game-day updates and essential details

The NFL Week 16 action between the Commanders and Eagles at Northwest Stadium is scheduled to commence at 5:00 PM ET.

• Who: Philadelphia Eagles vs. Washington Commanders
• Date: Saturday, December 20, 2025
• Time: 5:00 PM ET/2:00PM PT
• Venue: Northwest Stadium

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Conclusion

We predict the Eagles, with a 70% win probability, will likely beat the Commanders in Week 16 of the NFL season.

AI and automation have enhanced this article to quickly deliver accurate Eagles vs. Commanders insights, with human oversight ensuring high editorial quality. Our predictions are sourced from the latest data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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