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Eagles vs. Commanders prediction: Why Philadelphia is favored to win in NFL Week 16 [2025]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Mac Douglass, Senior Editor
Get Philadelphia Eagles vs Washington Commanders predictions for NFL Saturday.
The Washington Commanders will square off with the favored Philadelphia Eagles in NFL Week 16 action at Northwest Stadium on Saturday, commencing at 5:00 PM ET.
Based on updated simulation results, Dimers' advanced NFL model predicts the Eagles as the most likely winner of the Eagles vs. Commanders game.
This article offers further insights into this week's matchup, including projected touchdown scorers, best bets and player prop picks.
Eagles vs. Commanders prediction: Who will win and cover?
Since our Eagles-Commanders predictions earlier in the week, we have simulated the outcome of Saturday's NFL game between the Eagles and Commanders 10,000 times as part of our NFL predictions coverage.
Our famous predictive model currently gives the Eagles a 70% chance of beating the Commanders in Week 16 of the NFL season. Our predicted final score has the Eagles winning 25-19.
According to our model, the Commanders (+7) have a 57% chance of covering the spread, while the over/under total of 44.5 points has a 55% chance of going over.
To see win probabilities for every matchup this week, check out our expert NFL Week 16 straight up picks.
Eagles vs. Commanders odds
We have researched the best NFL odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Eagles | Commanders |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | -7 (-106) | +7 (-108) |
| Moneyline | -345 | +275 |
| Total | o44.5 (-105) | u44.5 (-110) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Eagles vs. Commanders picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Commanders +7 | -108 |
| Moneyline | Commanders | +275 |
| Total | Over 44.5 | -105 |
According to our NFL best bets, the top play to make on this game is Commanders +7 at the spread.
Eagles vs. Commanders TD scorers
Who will score a touchdown in Eagles vs. Commanders?
According to our list of touchdown scorer predictions for today, Saquon Barkley is most likely to score an anytime TD in Eagles vs. Commanders.
Our projections give Barkley a 46.2% chance of scoring a TD at Northwest Stadium, while the running back is a 10.8% chance of scoring the first touchdown the game.
Anytime touchdown scorer predictions
Philadelphia Eagles
| Player | Anytime TD Probability |
|---|---|
| Saquon Barkley (RB) | 46.2% |
| Jalen Hurts (QB) | 44.8% |
| A.J. Brown (WR) | 41.6% |
| DeVonta Smith (WR) | 34.1% |
| Dallas Goedert (TE) | 33.3% |
Washington Commanders
| Player | Anytime TD Probability |
|---|---|
| Chris Rodriguez (RB) | 34.9% |
| Terry McLaurin (WR) | 31.1% |
| Deebo Samuel (WR) | 27.3% |
| Marcus Mariota (QB) | 22.4% |
| Jacory Croskey-Merritt (RB) | 20.8% |
First touchdown scorer predictions
Philadelphia Eagles
| Player | First TD Probability |
|---|---|
| Saquon Barkley (RB) | 10.8% |
| Jalen Hurts (QB) | 10.4% |
| A.J. Brown (WR) | 9.4% |
| DeVonta Smith (WR) | 7.3% |
| Dallas Goedert (TE) | 7.1% |
Washington Commanders
| Player | First TD Probability |
|---|---|
| Chris Rodriguez (RB) | 7.4% |
| Terry McLaurin (WR) | 6.4% |
| Deebo Samuel (WR) | 5.5% |
| Marcus Mariota (QB) | 4.4% |
| Jacory Croskey-Merritt (RB) | 4.0% |
Eagles vs Commanders player props
Discover our predictions for the players likely to lead in passing, rushing and receiving yards for both the Eagles and Commanders. Head to our NFL player projections page now to access a full list of player prop projections for every offensive player in this matchup and all other Week 16 games.
Quarterbacks
Of the starting quarterbacks, the Eagles' Jalen Hurts is projected for 226 passing yards. The Commanders' Marcus Mariota is expected to throw for 208 yards.
| Player | Proj. Pass Yards |
|---|---|
| Jalen Hurts (PHI) | 226 |
| Marcus Mariota (WAS) | 208 |
Eagles rushing
| Player | Proj. Rush Yards |
|---|---|
| Saquon Barkley | 81 |
| Jalen Hurts | 33 |
| Tank Bigsby | 15 |
Commanders rushing
| Player | Proj. Rush Yards |
|---|---|
| Chris Rodriguez | 47 |
| Marcus Mariota | 36 |
| Jacory Croskey-Merritt | 30 |
Eagles receiving
| Player | Proj. Rec. Yards |
|---|---|
| A.J. Brown | 68 |
| DeVonta Smith | 63 |
| Dallas Goedert | 43 |
| Saquon Barkley | 20 |
| Jahan Dotson | 16 |
Commanders receiving
| Player | Proj. Rec. Yards |
|---|---|
| Terry McLaurin | 58 |
| Deebo Samuel | 48 |
| Treylon Burks | 19 |
| Jaylin Lane | 17 |
| John Bates | 16 |
Eagles vs. Commanders game-day updates and essential details
The NFL Week 16 matchup between the Commanders and Eagles at Northwest Stadium is scheduled to start at 5:00 PM ET.
- Who: Philadelphia Eagles vs. Washington Commanders
- Date: Saturday, December 20, 2025
- Time: 5:00 PM ET/2:00PM PT
- Venue: Northwest Stadium
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Conclusion
We predict the Eagles, with a 70% win probability, will likely beat the Commanders in Week 16 of the NFL season.
AI and automation have enhanced this article to quickly deliver accurate Eagles vs. Commanders insights, with human oversight ensuring high editorial quality. Our predictions are drawn from up-to-date data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.
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Mac Douglass specializes in NFL previews for the NFC South and NFC East, MLB best bets, Formula 1 race previews, and professional tennis insights. Combining predictive simulations and data-driven sports analysis, Mac provides in-depth content to elevate the betting experience for sports fans.
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