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NFL betting model insights report: Analyzing the Week 9 data
Updated: | First published:
Written by Nick Slade, Chief Content Officer
Reviewed by Jason Bevilacqua
This report pulls data from our backend resulting dashboard to highlight where our in-house NFL model has historically excelled with a positive ROI.
We’re back after a strong debut in Week 8. Last week’s report helped highlight a pair of winning plays — including the Dolphins Moneyline (+360) over the Falcons and our Best Insight Bet of the week, Browns/Patriots Over 40.5, which both cashed.
This report pulls data from our backend resulting dashboard to highlight where our in-house model has historically excelled with a positive ROI (Return on Investment), and how you can leverage that to make smarter bets this weekend.
NFL 2025 season analysis
| SPOT | SAMPLE SIZE | ROI |
| Home team moneyline w. 2-5% edge | 25+ | POSITIVE |
| Total bets 5-10% edge | 35+ | POSITIVE |
| Patriots games - Points totals | 5 | POSITIVE |
INSIGHT: NHL model insights are reporting positive ROI
Quick summary:
After the big Dolphins moneyline (+360) win in Week 8, it’s no surprise that home team moneyline plays within the 2-5% edge range continue to be a profitable target. At the time of publishing, Miami fit within this range in Week 9, too, showing a 4.9% edge against the best available odds (+350 at BetMGM Sportsbook), but failed to string together back to back wins, losing 28-6 to the Ravens on Thursday.
Things to watch in NFL Week 9:
Three reasons to keep checking the Dimers NFL Best Bets page as lines move toward Sunday’s slate:
Total Bets (5–10% Edge Range) have been another bright spot for the model this season. While no current plays meet that threshold, line movement closer to kickoff could reveal fresh opportunities. Stay alert - these have been consistent ROI drivers.
Following last week’s best bet to attack - the Browns/Patriots Over 40.5, which cashed - it’s worth noting that the model has been red-hot on Patriots game totals, going 4-1 this season for a +34% ROI. There’s currently no edge on Patriots-Falcons, but keep it bookmarked - things could shift before their 1 PM ET kickoff on Sunday.
Continuing with team-specific returns, Seahawks points total bets with an edge above 2% on the Best Bets page have delivered a perfect 2-0 record for Dimers bettors this season. Keep an eye on the odds leading up to Sunday, though - if they shift, this matchup could easily land right in the sweet spot for another play.
RELATED: NBA betting model insights report
Best bet to attack - NFL Week 9
Our model has identified another strong team-specific trend - this time featuring two teams going head-to-head in Week 9: the Cowboys and Cardinals. Both teams’ Spread bets with an edge above 2% on the NFL Best Bets page have delivered positive returns this season, combining for a 4-1 record overall.
Following last week’s tough loss to the Broncos, the model projects Dallas to bounce back against Arizona, giving the Cowboys a 58.2% probability to cover the -2.5 spread - a 4.7% edge at the current -115 odds with BetMGM.
To give you the most accurate and helpful information, this article has been reviewed and edited by Jason Bevilacqua through our fact-checking process.
Nick Slade, with nearly two decades of experience, is the Chief Content Officer at Cipher Sports Technology Group, overseeing content for Dimers. He specializes in soccer, NBA, and NHL betting, leveraging predictive analytics and machine learning to provide accurate betting insights.
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