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NHL betting model insights report: Analyzing this week's performance
Updated: | First published:
Written by Nick Slade, Chief Content Officer
Reviewed by Jason Bevilacqua
This report pulls data from our backend resulting dashboard to highlight where our in-house NHL model has historically excelled with a positive ROI.
We're back for another week on the ice - and coming off a strong debut. Last week’s report delivered immediately, with our Best Bet of the Week, Penguins puck line (vs. Flyers), cashing, while several of our highlighted “attack spots” delivered positive returns across the past seven days; not to mention an NHL props model that has been firing, with our editorial team cashing a +1590 goalscorer parlay over the weekend.
Since then, we also cashed our Tuesday "Bet to Attack" when the Predators covered the puckline against the Wild on Tuesday night, followed by Saturday's Penguins +1.5 against the Devils.
Tuesday: Predators +1.5 ✅
Saturday: Penguins +1.5 ✅
More on those below!
Each week, this report surfaces the most meaningful signals from our internal results dashboard — showing where the Dimers NHL Model has historically delivered a positive ROI — and outlining how you can apply those same profitable patterns when you visit the NHL Best Bets page this week.
RELATED: How we used NHL data to cash a +1590 goalscorer parlay
Now, let’s get into the latest data.
NHL 2025 season analysis
The NHL continues to profile as one of the sharpest and most reliable models across all of Dimers in 2025. Here are some key spots you should be looking for when browsing the Best Bets page over the coming days:
| SPOT | SAMPLE SIZE | ROI |
| Home team moneyline bets | 15+ | POSITIVE |
| Early puck line bets (2-5% edge) | 30+ | POSITIVE |
| Closing puck line bets (2-5% edge) | 15+ | POSITIVE |
INSIGHT: NFL model is dominating Points Totals bets
Quick summary:
Once again, puck line bets in the 2-5% edge window remain your core target area in the NHL this week. This range continues to deliver positive ROI whether you’re betting early or closer to puck drop - with the model even generating positive returns on closing number puck line bets that still sit inside that 2-5% edge band.
Things to watch in NHL this week:
We’ve also seen consistent strength on the Home Team Moneyline, posting positive ROI in limited but meaningful volume to start the year. If you see a home side sitting in that 2-5% edge lane on the Best Bets page - it’s worth extra attention.
NHL bet we attacked on Tuesday night
Cashed: Predators +1.5 (vs. Wild) ✅
One bet currently up on site for Tuesday night falls within one of our spots to attack with our model liking the Predators to cover the +1.5 against the Wild.
With a 61% probability and a 2.8% +EV edge on most of the sports betting sites, this lines up exactly within our sweet spot of puck line plays between a 2-5% range that has been delivering a high return on investment ✅
RELATED: NBA model insights and analysis
NHL best bet to attack on Wednesday night
There were no qualified bets for Wednesday. However, this is often changes as public money pours in throughout the day. Keep an eye on this article as it will be updated as soon as something meets the criteria of a "Bet to attack".
NHL best bet to attack on Thursday night
There were no qualified bets for Thursday. However, this is often changes as public money pours in throughout the day. Keep an eye on this article as it will be updated as soon as something meets the criteria of a "Bet to attack".
NHL best bet to attack on Friday night
There were no qualified bets for Friday. However, this is often changes as public money pours in throughout the day. Keep an eye on this article as it will be updated as soon as something meets the criteria of a "Bet to attack".
NHL best bet we attacked on Saturday
CASHED: Penguins +1.5 vs. Devils (-130) ✅
The NHL bet on the Penguins +1.5 against the Devils on November 8th is a high-value target. The model projects the Penguins to cover the line with a robust 60.1% probability. All data points confirm the value proposition, with the best available odds listed at -130.
The critical metric is the outstanding 3.6% edge identified in the market at the -130 odds. This significant positive expected value on the Puck Line is right in our sweet spot range of 2-5%. This sizable edge signifies an optimal opportunity to attack the available odds ✅
NHL best bet to attack on Sunday
Flames +1.5 vs. Wild (-175)
This NHL bet on the Flames +1.5 against the Wild on November 9th is a high-value target. The predictive model assigns a high 65.8% probability of the Flames covering the line. The best available odds are listed at -175.
The key factor making this bet actionable is the calculated 2.2% edge. While the odds are heavily favored to cover the line, this 2.2% positive expected value is substantial enough to fall within our profitable "sweet spot" range.
This confluence of a high win probability and a statistically significant edge makes the Flames +1.5 a priority wager ✅
Conclusion
Building on a successful start, the focus remains on leveraging the most profitable patterns identified by the Dimers NHL Model. The 2025 season analysis confirms the model's status as one of the sharpest in the industry, continuing to show positive ROI in key areas.
Users should prioritize puck line bets falling within the 2–5% edge window, a sweet spot that has proven successful whether betting early or taking advantage of closing numbers. Additionally, the model shows consistent, early strength on Home Team Moneyline bets when they also fall into that key 2–5% edge range ✅
These insights are designed to guide your weekly approach to the NHL Best Bets page, helping you apply the same profitable strategies that have been delivering strong returns. By focusing on these opportunities, you give yourself the best chance to replicate the model's success and maximize your returns on the ice this week.
Responsible gambling
Remember to please gamble responsibly. If you sense that you're taking your luck too far, know when to call it quits and don't be afraid to seek assistance. Keep in mind that gambling is all about having a fantastic experience! If you or someone you know is grappling with gambling issues, reach out to 1-800-GAMBLER for crisis counseling and support.
To give you the most accurate and helpful information, this article has been reviewed and edited by Jason Bevilacqua through our fact-checking process.
Nick Slade, with nearly two decades of experience, is the Chief Content Officer at Cipher Sports Technology Group, overseeing content for Dimers. He specializes in soccer, NBA, and NHL betting, leveraging predictive analytics and machine learning to provide accurate betting insights.
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