NFL betting model insights report: Analyzing the Week 10 data

We're past the halfway point of the season, and it's time to dive back under the hood to see where the Dimers NFL betting model is performing best.

Last week, we missed on our primary Best Bet of the Week - the Cowboys couldn’t cover vs. the Cardinals on Monday Night Football.

But as the week unfolded, the model once again showed why tracking edge movement matters.

Check out this explainer video to get firsthand insight into how the Dimers model insights work:

Our NFL betting model moves

Seahawks-Commanders Over 48.5 moved into the 2% and above edge range we flagged in last week's report - and it cashed.

Vikings-Lions Under 52.5 was highlighted within our 5-10% Points Total category and had a 7.8% edge at kick - another winner.

Both of these reinforce the same point: The edge isn’t static - and the attack zones we flag throughout the week can become stronger the closer we get to kick-off.

Each week, this report surfaces the most meaningful signals from our internal results dashboard - showing where the Dimers NFL model has historically delivered a positive ROI - and outlining how you can apply those same profitable patterns when you visit the NFL Best Bets page this week.

NFL 2025 season analysis

INSIGHT: NHL model insights are reporting positive ROI

Quick summary:

If you’re filtering the Best Bets page, these are the exact combinations you should be hunting:

🎯 Favorited teams on the Moneyline

🎯 Moneylines showing a 2-10% edge

🎯 Points Totals showing a 5-10% edge

🎯 Patriots Points Totals (with an edge)

These is the model profiles that are winning.

So as you go through the NFL Best Bets board this week, don’t just look at the pick - look at what kind of pick it is, and what edge band it sits in.

Things to watch in NFL Week 10:

Right now, there are no Points Totals on the NFL Best Bets page with an edge higher than 3%. That’s notable - because Points Totals within the 5-10% edge band have been one of our most attacked spots this season.

Although, one notable exception is the Patriots game Under 48.5 points against the Buccaneers. Currently our model has a 3.4% edge on the -105 odds with DraftKings Sportsbook. Bets involving the Points Total in Patriots games, above a 2% edge, have been a consistent source of success for the model this season and is worth consideration.

Points Total bets are exactly the type of category that tends to emerge late in the week as new information hits the market - weather forecasts, injury confirmations, defensive/offensive personnel announcements, and pace indicators, so keep that in mind as you're browsing the site over the weekend and look for Points Total bets that sit within that 5-10% edge range.

RELATED: NBA betting model insights report

Best bet to attack - NFL Week 10

Moneyline favorites have been one of the strongest and most consistent profit spots for the Dimers NFL model this season - and we have another one that fits that exact profile.

Our best bet to attack in NFL Week 10 is Browns Moneyline (-126) vs. the Jets 

Fresh off of a bye, Cleveland comes in with rest, while the Jets enter this matchup after a mini roster sell-off at the trade deadline.

At the time of publishing, the Dimers model is showing a 4.4% edge on the Browns to win outright - placing this play firmly inside the Moneyline edge window that has produced positive ROI throughout 2025.

This is the data-backed side to be on.

Responsible gambling

Remember to please gamble responsibly. If you sense that you're taking your luck too far, know when to call it quits and don't be afraid to seek assistance. Keep in mind that gambling is all about having a fantastic experience! If you or someone you know is grappling with gambling issues, reach out to 1-800-GAMBLER for crisis counseling and support.