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NBA betting model insights report: Analyzing this week's performance
Updated: | First published:
Written by Nick Slade, Chief Content Officer
Reviewed by Jason Bevilacqua
This report pulls data from our backend resulting dashboard to highlight where our in-house NBA model has historically excelled with a positive ROI.
The NBA season is now in full swing, and the Dimers model is already showing clear trends in where the profitable edge ranges are emerging. With more data rolling in each night, we’re beginning to see repeatable patterns - and that means more defined attack spots to target in this week’s report.
Current streak: 5-1
Lakers ML ✅
Kings ML ✅
Suns ML ✅
Bucks ML ✅
Lakers ML ❌
Pistons ML ✅
Each week, this report surfaces the most meaningful signals from our internal results dashboard - showing where the Dimers NBA Model has historically delivered a positive ROI - and outlining how you can apply those same profitable patterns when you visit the NBA Best Bets page this week.
NBA 2025-26 season analysis
Our NBA model continues to pick up steam, showing a positive return in every traditional betting market (ML/Spread/Totals)
| SPOT | SAMPLE SIZE | ROI |
| Moneyline bets (2-10% edge) | 45+ | POSITIVE |
| Spread bets (2-7% edge) | 35+ | POSITIVE |
| Closing line Totals (Edges over 2%) | 5+ | POSITIVE |
INSIGHT: NFL model is dominating Points Totals bets
Quick summary:
As the sample size grows, our NBA model continues to consolidate its strong results - specifically Moneyline plays between 2-10% and Spread plays between 2-7% which are both appearing on the Best Bets page regularly.
When using the right online sports betting sites, both spots have shown reliable positive ROI so far, which suggests the model is accurately identifying price inefficiencies early in the season. Despite the small sample size, we’ve also started to see strong returns on closing line Totals when the edge stays above 2%, another encouraging sign that the model is holding value late in the cycle.
Things to watch in NBA this week:
Keep an eye on games where the edge number moves into these windows closer to tip. We’ve seen early value get bet down by the market, and when the model still registers a qualifying edge - that’s been a reliable indicator of strength.
Upside is also emerging on closing Totals: only a handful have qualified so far, but the sample in that band has returned profit. If you see a Total in the 2% edge and above range as we approach tip-off - that bet is worth serious consideration!
RELATED: NHL model insights are reporting positive ROI
CASHED: NBA best bets we attacked on Wednesday night ✅
With Moneyline bets delivering the strongest returns from our NBA model so far this season, we’re leaning into that same lane for Wednesday’s slate.
At the time of publishing, two standout plays are appearing on the NBA Best Bets page: Kings Moneyline (vs. the Warriors), and Lakers Moneyline (vs. the Spurs).
The Dimers model is showing a 2.5% edge on Sacramento and a 3.2% edge on Los Angeles - placing both directly inside the profitability window we’ve seen drive positive ROI through the opening stages of the season.
Lakers ML ✅
Kings ML ✅
CASHED: NBA best bet we attacked on Thursday night
Phoenix Suns Moneyline -137 (vs. Clippers) ✅
For tonight's NBA matchup on Thursday, November 6th at 10pm (ET), the Phoenix Suns are favored to win against the Los Angeles Clippers, with an implied win probability of 60.2%. The best available betting odds for a Suns victory are -137, offering an edge of 2.4% - right in the range outlined above - according to the analysis. This suggests that despite the Clippers' efforts, the Suns are the statistically stronger pick for the night's outcome.
Suns ML ✅
CASHED: NBA best bet we attacked on Friday night
Milwaukee Bucks Moneyline -170 (vs. Bulls) ✅
The Bucks winning against the Bulls is graded as a high-value target. The model projects a strong 65.5% probability of a Bucks victory.
Importantly, the calculated 2.5% edge (based on the best available odds of -170) falls squarely within our established "sweet spot" range for profitable Moneyline bets. This significant, positive expected value makes the Bucks Moneyline a prime bet to attack.
Bucks ML ✅
NBA bet we attacked on Saturday night
Los Angeles Lakers Moneyline -156 (vs. Hawks) ❌
The Lakers Moneyline against the Hawks on Saturrday, November 8th is a confirmed high-value opportunity. The model assigns the Lakers a strong 63.6% probability of winning the game. The best available odds for this favorite bet are -156.
The key data point is the calculated 2.6% edge found in the market. This significant edge, derived from the difference between the model's projection and the bookmaker's implied probability (approx. 60.8%), places the Lakers Moneyline bet squarely within our preferred "sweet spot" to attack. This excellent positive expected value makes the Lakers win a top priority wager.
CASHED: NBA best bet we attacked on Sunday night
Pistons Moneyline -166 (vs. 76ers)
The NBA bet on the Pistons Moneyline against the 76ers on November 9th is identified as a high-value opportunity. The model projects the Pistons to win with a strong 62.9% probability. The best available odds for this favorite bet are -166.
The key metric is the robust 2.2% edge found in the market. This positive expected value is significant and confirms the bet's position within our profitable "sweet spot" range. The combination of a high projected win probability and a substantial edge makes the Pistons Moneyline a priority wager for attack.
NBA best bet to attack on Monday night
Bucks Moneyline -115 (vs. Mavericks)
For November 10, the moneyline bet we are attacking are the Milwaukee Bucks as they travel to Dallas to take on the Mavericks.
Sticking with what is working so well for this model, with a 3.2% edge on the best available odds - along with a 56.4% probability - this is another bet that lands right within our sweet spot for profit based upon historical Dimers model performance.
Conclusion
Building on a successful start, the focus remains on leveraging the most profitable patterns identified by the Dimers NBA Model. The 2025 season analysis confirms the model's status as one of the sharpest in the industry, continuing to show positive ROI in key areas.
Users should prioritize Moneyline and Spread bets falling within the 2- 10% edge window, a sweet spot that has proven successful whether betting early or taking advantage of closing numbers. Additionally, the model shows consistent, early strength on closing line Totals bets when they also fall into that key 2% and above edge range ✅
These insights are designed to guide your weekly approach to the NBA Best Bets page, helping you apply the same profitable strategies that have been delivering strong returns. By focusing on these opportunities, you give yourself the best chance to replicate the model's success and maximize your returns on the hardwood this week.
Responsible gambling
Remember to please gamble responsibly. If you sense that you're taking your luck too far, know when to call it quits and don't be afraid to seek assistance. Keep in mind that gambling is all about having a fantastic experience! If you or someone you know is grappling with gambling issues, reach out to 1-800-GAMBLER for crisis counseling and support.
To give you the most accurate and helpful information, this article has been reviewed and edited by Jason Bevilacqua through our fact-checking process.
Nick Slade, with nearly two decades of experience, is the Chief Content Officer at Cipher Sports Technology Group, overseeing content for Dimers. He specializes in soccer, NBA, and NHL betting, leveraging predictive analytics and machine learning to provide accurate betting insights.
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