NFL best bets today: Week 18 picks include Commanders vs. Eagles play [1/4/2026]

Today’s NFL picks for January 4, 2026 are here, with Commanders vs. Eagles and Lions vs. Bears among the top plays identified by our model across Sunday’s NFL schedule.

Dimers’ predictive analytics engine runs 24/7, going over the latest football odds to unearth legitimate betting edges. The result? Data-backed picks that help Dimers Pro members make smarter decisions.

List of NFL best bets today [1/4, updated 4:09PM ET]

Below, you’ll find today’s best football bets, ranked by edge for Sunday, January 4, 2026.

Commanders +3.5 (-115)

• Edge: 5.4%
• Probability: 58.9%
• Matchup: Commanders vs. Eagles (4:25PM ET, Sunday)

Our model has identified value on Commanders +3.5 at -115 odds. A 58.9% probability produces an edge of 5.4%, making this the strongest play for today's NFL slate.

Bears -3.5 (-105)

• Edge: 2.6%
• Probability: 53.8%
• Matchup: Lions vs. Bears (4:25PM ET, Sunday)

Bears -3.5 carries a 2.6% edge and a probability of 53.8% at -105 odds, according to our model.

Bills ML (-750)

• Edge: 2.6%
• Probability: 90.8%
• Matchup: Jets vs. Bills (4:25PM ET, Sunday)

Bills ML at -750 odds shows a 2.6% edge, supported by a 90.8% probability in simulations.

Commanders vs. Eagles over 38.5 points (-110)

• Edge: 2.5%
• Probability: 54.9%
• Matchup: Commanders vs. Eagles (4:25PM ET, Sunday)

A 2.5% edge and 54.9% probability make Commanders vs. Eagles over 38.5 points at a value play in the Commanders vs. Eagles matchup, per our model.

Dolphins +13.5 (-105)

• Edge: 2.2%
• Probability: 53.4%
• Matchup: Dolphins vs. Patriots (4:25PM ET, Sunday)

Dolphins +13.5 at -105 odds presents a 2.2% edge, with simulations resulting in a probability of 53.4%.

NFL best bets summary: Sunday, 1/4/2026

As of 4:09PM ET, here are our top NFL bets by edge recommended by our model:

Matchup	Bet	Odds	Edge	Probability
Commanders vs. Eagles	Commanders +3.5	-115 @ FanDuel	5.4%	58.9%
Lions vs. Bears	Bears -3.5	-105 @ BetMGM	2.6%	53.8%
Jets vs. Bills	Bills ML	-750 @ BetMGM	2.6%	90.8%
Commanders vs. Eagles	Over 38.5 Points	-110 @ BetMGM	2.5%	54.9%
Dolphins vs. Patriots	Dolphins +13.5	-105 @ FanDuel	2.2%	53.4%

List of upcoming NFL games to bet on [1/4/2026]

• Dolphins vs. Patriots (4:25PM ET, Sunday)
• Cardinals vs. Rams (4:25PM ET, Sunday)
• Lions vs. Bears (4:25PM ET, Sunday)
• Commanders vs. Eagles (4:25PM ET, Sunday)
• Jets vs. Bills (4:25PM ET, Sunday)
• Chiefs vs. Raiders (4:25PM ET, Sunday)
• Chargers vs. Broncos (4:25PM ET, Sunday)
• Ravens vs. Steelers (8:20PM ET, Sunday)

See How Dimers Pro Enhances Your Best Bets

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What Is Dimebot?

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Conclusion

Our NFL best bets are locked and loaded for January 4, 2026, featuring plays such as Commanders +3.5 and Bears -3.5. Powered by advanced simulations, these picks are here to boost your betting game.

This article, enhanced by AI and automation, aims to deliver accurate NFL insights quickly, with human oversight ensuring high editorial quality. Our predictions are sourced from current data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

All odds and probabilities in this article are correct and accurate at the time of publication.

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