NFL best bets today: Week 18 picks include Commanders vs. Eagles play [1/4/2026]

Commanders +3.5 (-115)

• Edge: 5.4%
• Probability: 58.9%
• Matchup: Commanders vs. Eagles (4:25PM ET, Sunday)

Our model has identified value on Commanders +3.5 at -115 odds. A 58.9% probability produces an edge of 5.4%, making this the strongest play for today's NFL slate.

Bears -3.5 (-105)

• Edge: 2.6%
• Probability: 53.8%
• Matchup: Lions vs. Bears (4:25PM ET, Sunday)

Bears -3.5 carries a 2.6% edge and a probability of 53.8% at -105 odds, according to our model.

Bills ML (-750)

• Edge: 2.6%
• Probability: 90.8%
• Matchup: Jets vs. Bills (4:25PM ET, Sunday)

Bills ML at -750 odds shows a 2.6% edge, supported by a 90.8% probability in simulations.

Commanders vs. Eagles over 38.5 points (-110)

• Edge: 2.5%
• Probability: 54.9%
• Matchup: Commanders vs. Eagles (4:25PM ET, Sunday)

A 2.5% edge and 54.9% probability make Commanders vs. Eagles over 38.5 points at a value play in the Commanders vs. Eagles matchup, per our model.

Dolphins +13.5 (-105)

• Edge: 2.2%
• Probability: 53.4%
• Matchup: Dolphins vs. Patriots (4:25PM ET, Sunday)

Dolphins +13.5 at -105 odds presents a 2.2% edge, with simulations resulting in a probability of 53.4%.

NFL best bets summary: Sunday, 1/4/2026

As of 4:09PM ET, here are our top NFL bets by edge recommended by our model:

Matchup	Bet	Odds	Edge	Probability
Commanders vs. Eagles	Commanders +3.5	-115 @ FanDuel	5.4%	58.9%
Lions vs. Bears	Bears -3.5	-105 @ BetMGM	2.6%	53.8%
Jets vs. Bills	Bills ML	-750 @ BetMGM	2.6%	90.8%
Commanders vs. Eagles	Over 38.5 Points	-110 @ BetMGM	2.5%	54.9%
Dolphins vs. Patriots	Dolphins +13.5	-105 @ FanDuel	2.2%	53.4%

List of upcoming NFL games to bet on [1/4/2026]

• Dolphins vs. Patriots (4:25PM ET, Sunday)
• Cardinals vs. Rams (4:25PM ET, Sunday)
• Lions vs. Bears (4:25PM ET, Sunday)
• Commanders vs. Eagles (4:25PM ET, Sunday)
• Jets vs. Bills (4:25PM ET, Sunday)
• Chiefs vs. Raiders (4:25PM ET, Sunday)
• Chargers vs. Broncos (4:25PM ET, Sunday)
• Ravens vs. Steelers (8:20PM ET, Sunday)

See How Dimers Pro Enhances Your Best Bets

Unlock the full power of our best bets with Dimers Pro. Watch this explainer video to see how it can elevate your betting game.

What Is Dimebot?

Dimebot is Dimers’ AI bet assistant, designed to surface swift insights, answer betting questions, and help you explore data more efficiently.

NFL betting promos for Week 18

Make the most of our best bets today—including Commanders +3.5—with the two offers listed below.

DraftKings Sportsbook

Sign up for DraftKings Sportsbook! Bet $5, get $200 in bonus bets instantly plus over $200 off NFL Sunday Ticket.

Bet365 Sportsbook

Join Bet365 Sportsbook! Bet $5, get $200 in bonus bets win or lose.

Conclusion

Our NFL best bets are locked and loaded for January 4, 2026, featuring plays such as Commanders +3.5 and Bears -3.5. Powered by advanced simulations, these picks are here to boost your betting game.

This article, enhanced by AI and automation, aims to deliver accurate NFL insights quickly, with human oversight ensuring high editorial quality. Our predictions are sourced from current data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

All odds and probabilities in this article are correct and accurate at the time of publication.

Note: Clicking links to our sportsbook partners may earn us a referral fee. Learn about how we review products and services.