Yankees vs. Red Sox prediction: Boston favored to win Sunday's MLB matchup [6/28/2026]
Get New York Yankees vs Boston Red Sox predictions for MLB Sunday.
The Boston Red Sox and New York Yankees are scheduled to meet in MLB action at Fenway Park on Sunday, starting at 7:20 PM ET.
The Red Sox will have Sonny Gray (9-1, 2.95 ERA) as their starting pitcher, pitting him against Carlos Rodón (4-2, 3.70 ERA) for the Yankees.
Based on the latest simulation results, Dimers' advanced MLB model gives the Red Sox a slight edge with a 51.0% win probability over the Yankees.
This article offers a closer look at Sunday's Yankees vs. Red Sox matchup, including best bets and picks.
Yankees vs. Red Sox prediction: Who will win and cover?
Our leading predictive model gives the Red Sox a 51.0% chance of beating the Yankees.
According to our model, the Yankees (+1.5) have a 65.0% chance of covering the run line, while the 8-run over/under has a 53.2% chance of going over,.
Yankees vs. Red Sox odds [6/28/2026]
We have researched the best MLB odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Yankees | Red Sox |
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | +1.5 (-220) | -1.5 (+165) |
| Moneyline | -102 | -114 |
| Total | o8 (-105) | u8 (-110) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Yankees vs. Red Sox picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | Red Sox -1.5 | +165 |
| Moneyline | Yankees | -102 |
| Total | Over 8 | -105 |
According to our MLB best bets, the top play to make on this game is Over 8 total runs.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Yankees vs. Red Sox game-day updates and essential details
Sunday's MLB game between the Red Sox and Yankees at Fenway Park is scheduled to begin at 7:20 PM ET.
- Who: New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox
- Date: Sunday, June 28, 2026
- Time: 7:20 PM ET/4:20PM PT
- Venue: Fenway Park
Conclusion
We predict the Red Sox, with a 51.0% win probability, will likely beat the Yankees in Sunday's MLB matchup.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
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Jason Bevilacqua, an expert in MLB, NHL, NBA, MLS, and NFL, delivers game previews, best bets, and props. Since 2020, as Head of Social and Community at Dimers, he has contributed insightful articles utilizing data-driven models and simulations.
