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Liberty vs. Fire prediction: Why New York is favored to win Thursday's WNBA matchup [5/14/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Ryan Leaver, Senior Sports and Betting Editor
Get New York Liberty vs Portland Fire predictions for WNBA Thursday.
The Portland Fire will take on the favored New York Liberty in WNBA action at Moda Center on Thursday, commencing at 10:00 PM ET.
Based on the latest simulations, Dimers' proven WNBA model projects the Liberty as the most likely winner of the Liberty vs. Fire game.
The Fire, with the likes of Carla Leite, Nyadiew Puoch and Bridget Carleton, are set to take on the Liberty, whose lineup includes Breanna Stewart, Pauline Astier and Jonquel Jones.
This article offers an expanded analysis of Thursday's matchup, including best bets and player prop picks.
Liberty vs. Fire prediction: Who will win and cover?
Using powerful machine learning and statistical analysis, we have simulated the outcome of Thursday's WNBA matchup between the Liberty and Fire, forming part of our WNBA predictions coverage.
Our famous predictive model gives the Liberty an 85% chance of beating the Fire.
According to our model, the Fire (+11.5) have a 53% chance of covering the spread, while the 176.5-point over/under has a 67% chance of staying under.
Liberty vs. Fire odds
We have researched the best WNBA odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Liberty | Fire |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | -11.5 (-110) | +11.5 (-106) |
| Moneyline | -625 | +470 |
| Total | o176.5 (-105) | u176.5 (-112) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Liberty vs. Fire picks and best bet
After matching our probabilities against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Fire +11.5 | -106 |
| Moneyline | Liberty | -625 |
| Total | Under 176.5 | -112 |
According to our WNBA best bets, the top play to make on this game is Under 176.5 total points.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Liberty vs. Fire player props
WNBA prop bets are a common way to wager on Thursday's Liberty vs. Fire game without necessarily betting on the outcome. We use the best information available to project how each team's leading players will perform at Moda Center.
Breanna Stewart is expected to lead the Liberty with 22 points, 8 rebounds and 4 assists, while Carla Leite is projected to have 12 points, 2 rebounds and 3 assists for the Fire.
Check out our WNBA player projections for a full range of projected box scores, including points, assists, rebounds and today's WNBA first basket picks.
Liberty prediction
Our model's projected player stats for the Liberty are:
| Player | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | DFS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Breanna Stewart | 22 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 47 |
| Pauline Astier | 17 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 36 |
| Jonquel Jones | 14 | 8 | 3 | 2 | 35 |
| Marine Johannes | 13 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 27 |
| Betnijah Laney | 10 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 21 |
Fire prediction
Projected points, rebounds, assists and three-pointers made for the Fire:
| Player | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | DFS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carla Leite | 12 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 23 |
| Nyadiew Puoch | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 20 |
| B. Carleton | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 20 |
| L. Geiselsoder | 7 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 21 |
| Emily Engstler | 7 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 25 |
Liberty vs. Fire game-day updates and essential details
Thursday's matchup between the Fire and Liberty at Moda Center is scheduled to commence at 10:00 PM ET.
- Who: New York Liberty vs. Portland Fire
- Date: Thursday, May 14, 2026
- Time: 10:00 PM ET/7:00PM PT
- Venue: Moda Center
Conclusion
We predict the Liberty, with an 85% win probability, will likely beat the Fire in Thursday's WNBA matchup.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
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Ryan Leaver uses advanced statistical models and simulations to predict outcomes and provide predictions for the NBA, NFL, college football, college basketball, and soccer. He offers detailed game previews, best bets, props, and futures articles.
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