Jets vs. Patriots prediction: New England favored to win TNF Week 11, 2025

NFL Week 11 action continues on Thursday at 8:15PM ET as the New York Jets face off with the favored New England Patriots at Gillette Stadium.

Based on the latest simulation results, Dimers' proven NFL model predicts the Patriots as the most likely winner of the Jets vs. Patriots game.

This article offers a closer look at Thursday's matchup, including projected touchdown scorers, best bets and player prop picks.

Jets vs. Patriots prediction: Who will win and cover?

Since our Jets-Patriots predictions earlier in the week, we have simulated the outcome of Thursday's NFL game between the Jets and Patriots 10,000 times as part of our NFL predictions coverage.

Our independent predictive model gives the Patriots an 86% chance of beating the Jets in Week 11 of the NFL season. Our predicted final score has the Patriots winning 26-15.

According to our model, the Jets (+12.5) have a 53% chance of covering the spread, while the 43.5-point over/under has a 54% chance of staying under.

To see win probabilities for every matchup this week, check out our expert NFL Week 11 straight up picks.

Jets vs. Patriots odds

We have sourced the best NFL odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

Bet Type	Jets	Patriots
Spread	+12.5 (-105)	-12.5 (-110)
Moneyline	+625	-770
Total	o43.5 (-105)	u43.5 (-115)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Jets vs. Patriots picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

Bet Type	Pick	Bet Now
Spread	Jets +12.5	-105
Moneyline	Jets	+625
Total	Under 43.5	-115

According to our NFL best bets, the top play to make on this game is Jets +12.5 at the spread.

Jets vs. Patriots TD scorers

Who will score a touchdown in Jets vs. Patriots?

According to our list of touchdown scorer predictions for TNF, TreVeyon Henderson is most likely to score an anytime touchdown in Jets vs. Patriots.

Our projections give Henderson a 52.0% chance of scoring a TD at Gillette Stadium, while the running back is a 14.3% chance of registering the first touchdown the game.

Anytime touchdown scorer predictions

New York Jets

Player	Anytime TD Probability
Breece Hall (RB)	32.3%
Justin Fields (QB)	25.3%
Mason Taylor (TE)	22.6%
Isaiah Davis (RB)	14.2%
Tyler Johnson (WR)	13.0%

New England Patriots

Player	Anytime TD Probability
TreVeyon Henderson (RB)	52.0%
Stefon Diggs (WR)	37.2%
Hunter Henry (TE)	33.1%
Drake Maye (QB)	28.0%
Mack Hollins (WR)	27.0%

First touchdown scorer predictions

New York Jets

Player	First TD Probability
Breece Hall (RB)	7.5%
Justin Fields (QB)	5.6%
Mason Taylor (TE)	4.9%
Isaiah Davis (RB)	2.9%
Tyler Johnson (WR)	2.7%

New England Patriots

Player	First TD Probability
TreVeyon Henderson (RB)	14.3%
Stefon Diggs (WR)	9.1%
Hunter Henry (TE)	7.8%
Drake Maye (QB)	6.4%
Mack Hollins (WR)	6.1%

To make the most of TreVeyon Henderson's strong first TD probability, check out our guide on tonight's Thursday Night Football boosted odds.

Jets vs Patriots player props

Discover our predictions for the players likely to lead in passing, rushing and receiving yards for both the Jets and Patriots. Head to our NFL player projections page now to access a full list of player prop projections for every offensive player in this matchup and all other Week 11 games.

Quarterbacks

Of the starting quarterbacks, the Jets' Justin Fields is projected to have a quiet game with 144 passing yards, while the Patriots' Drake Maye is expected to throw for 235 yards.

Player	Proj. Pass Yards
Justin Fields (NYJ)	144
Drake Maye (NE)	235

Jets rushing

Player	Proj. Rush Yards
Breece Hall	67
Justin Fields	40
Isaiah Davis	15

Patriots rushing

Player	Proj. Rush Yards
TreVeyon Henderson	74
Drake Maye	26
Terrell Jennings	16

Jets receiving

Player	Proj. Rec. Yards
Mason Taylor	36
Tyler Johnson	24
Adonai Mitchell	22
Breece Hall	18
Arian Smith	17

Patriots receiving

Player	Proj. Rec. Yards
Stefon Diggs	62
Mack Hollins	46
Hunter Henry	41
DeMario Douglas	32
Kyle Williams	26

Jets vs. Patriots game-day updates and essential details

The NFL Week 11 matchup between the Patriots and Jets at Gillette Stadium is scheduled to start at 8:15PM ET.

• Who: New York Jets vs. New England Patriots
• Date: Thursday, November 13, 2025
• Time: 8:15PM ET/5:15PM PT
• Venue: Gillette Stadium

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Conclusion

We predict the Patriots, with an 86% win probability, will likely beat the Jets in Week 11 of the NFL season.

AI and automation have enhanced this article to quickly deliver accurate Jets vs. Patriots insights, with human oversight ensuring high editorial quality. Our predictions are based on up-to-date data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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