NBA player props today: Sunday's best props include Keon Ellis [1/11/2026]

Keon Ellis over 1.5 steals (+178)

• Edge: 15.5%
• Probability: 51.5%
• Projection: 1.6
• Game: Rockets vs. Kings (9:00PM ET)

Our model has found value on Sacramento's Keon Ellis over 1.5 steals. A probability of 51.5% gives this play an edge of 15.5% at +178 odds.

Giannis Antetokounmpo over 5.5 assists (+128)

• Edge: 14.1%
• Probability: 58.0%
• Projection: 6.9
• Game: Bucks vs. Nuggets (8:00PM ET)

Giannis Antetokounmpo’s assists prop shows a 14.1% edge at +128 odds, according to our model, which projects him for 6.9 assists on the over 5.5 line.

Russell Westbrook over 1.5 steals (+178)

• Edge: 11.1%
• Probability: 47.1%
• Projection: 1.3
• Game: Rockets vs. Kings (9:00PM ET)

The data highlights value on Russell Westbrook over 1.5 steals, with simulations showing a 47.1% probability and an 11.1% edge at +178.

Nic Claxton over 1.5 blocks (+170)

• Edge: 10.6%
• Probability: 47.6%
• Projection: 1.2
• Game: Nets vs. Grizzlies (3:30PM ET)

Our model projects Nic Claxton to record 1.2 blocks today, creating an edge of 10.6% on the over 1.5 line at +170 odds.

Jamal Murray over 1.5 steals (+194)

• Edge: 10.0%
• Probability: 44.0%
• Projection: 1.0
• Game: Bucks vs. Nuggets (8:00PM ET)

Simulations indicate value on Jamal Murray over 1.5 steals for Denver, showing an edge of 10.0% at +194 odds.

Nic Claxton over 3.5 assists (+122)

• Edge: 9.2%
• Probability: 54.2%
• Projection: 4.3
• Game: Nets vs. Grizzlies (3:30PM ET)

Nic Claxton’s assists prop shows an edge of 9.2% at +122 odds, according to our model, which projects him for 4.3 today.

Cam Spencer over 2.5 3-pointers made (+136)

• Edge: 9.1%
• Probability: 51.5%
• Projection: 2.6
• Game: Nets vs. Grizzlies (3:30PM ET)

Our model projects Cam Spencer for 2.6 3-pointers made for Memphis, creating an edge of 9.1% on over 2.5 at +136 odds.

Zach LaVine over 2.5 3-pointers made (+140)

• Edge: 9.1%
• Probability: 50.8%
• Projection: 2.6
• Game: Rockets vs. Kings (9:00PM ET)

Our expert modelling projects Zach LaVine for 2.6 3-pointers made, creating value on the over 2.5 line at +140 odds and a 9.1% edge.

Derik Queen over 1.5 blocks (+150)

• Edge: 8.1%
• Probability: 48.1%
• Projection: 1.3
• Game: Pelicans vs. Magic (3:00PM ET)

An 8.1% edge on the over 2.5 blocks line makes Derik Queen a value play in Pelicans vs. Magic, with our model projecting him for 1.3 blocks at +150 odds.

Peyton Watson over 1.5 steals (+162)

• Edge: 8.1%
• Probability: 46.3%
• Projection: 1.2
• Game: Bucks vs. Nuggets (8:00PM ET)

Simulations project Peyton Watson for 1.2 steals here, creating a 8.1% edge on the over 1.5 line at +162 odds.

NBA player prop summary: Sunday, January 11, 2026

A quick summary of today’s top props by edge according to our model as of 9:51AM ET:

Matchup	Prop	Odds	Edge	Probability
Rockets vs. Kings	Keon Ellis over 1.5 steals	+178 @ FanDuel	15.5%	51.5%
Bucks vs. Nuggets	Giannis Antetokounmpo over 5.5 assists	+128 @ FanDuel	14.1%	58.0%
Rockets vs. Kings	Russell Westbrook over 1.5 steals	+178 @ FanDuel	10.6%	47.6%
Nets vs. Grizzlies	Nic Claxton over 1.5 blocks	+170 @ BetMGM	10.6%	47.6%
Bucks vs. Nuggets	Jamal Murray over 1.5 steals	+194 @ FanDuel	10.0%	44.0%
Nets vs. Grizzlies	Nic Claxton over 3.5 assists	+122 @ FanDuel	9.2%	54.2%
Nets vs. Grizzlies	Cam Spencer over 2.5 3-pointers made	+136 @ DraftKings	9.1%	51.5%
Rockets vs. Kings	Zach LaVine over 2.5 3-pointers made	+140 @ FanDuel	9.1%	50.8%
Pelicans vs. Magic	Derik Queen over 2.5 blocks	+150 @ DraftKings	8.1%	48.1%
Bucks vs. Nuggets	Peyton Watson over 1.5 steals	+162 @ FanDuel	8.1%	46.3%

Conclusion

For January 11, 2026, our NBA prop bets feature players such as Keon Ellis, Giannis Antetokounmpo and Russell Westbrook. Each pick is grounded in real-time data and advanced simulations to help you bet with clarity and purpose.

Built using automation and human oversight, this article draws on the latest data to deliver accurate, timely insights. If using this article for betting, Dimers encourages responsible gambling.