NBA player props today: Monday's best props include Peyton Watson [1/11/2026]

Peyton Watson over 1.5 blocks (+194)

• Edge: 13.1%
• Probability: 47.1%
• Projection: 1.2
• Game: Bucks vs. Nuggets (8:00PM ET)

Our model has found value on Denver's Peyton Watson over 1.5 blocks. A probability of 47.1% gives this play an edge of 13.1% at +194 odds.

Jaden McDaniels over 1.5 steals (+172)

• Edge: 12.1%
• Probability: 48.9%
• Projection: 1.4
• Game: Spurs vs. Timberwolves (7:00PM ET)

Jaden McDaniels’s steals prop shows a 12.1% edge at +172 odds, according to our model, which projects him for 1.4 steals on the over 1.5 line.

Kevin Durant over 2.5 3-pointers made (+150)

• Edge: 10.6%
• Probability: 50.6%
• Projection: 2.6
• Game: Rockets vs. Kings (9:00PM ET)

The data highlights value on Kevin Durant over 2.5 3-pointers made, with simulations showing a 50.6% probability and a 10.6% edge at +150.

Jalen Johnson over 1.5 steals (+154)

• Edge: 10.4%
• Probability: 49.8%
• Projection: 1.5
• Game: Hawks vs. Warriors (8:30PM ET)

Our model projects Jalen Johnson to put up 1.5 steals today, creating an edge of 10.4% on the over 1.5 line at +154 odds.

Kristaps Porzingis over 1.5 blocks (+178)

• Edge: 10.2%
• Probability: 46.2%
• Projection: 1.1
• Game: Hawks vs. Warriors (8:30PM ET)

Simulations indicate value on Kristaps Porzingis over 1.5 blocks for Atlanta, showing an edge of 10.2% at +178 odds.

Keon Ellis over 1.5 steals (+138)

• Edge: 9.9%
• Probability: 52.0%
• Projection: 1.6
• Game: Rockets vs. Kings (9:00PM ET)

Keon Ellis’s steals prop shows an edge of 9.9% at +138 odds, according to our model, which projects him for 1.6 today.

Nic Claxton over 1.5 blocks (+165)

• Edge: 9.9%
• Probability: 47.6%
• Projection: 1.2
• Game: Nets vs. Grizzlies (3:30PM ET)

Our model projects Nic Claxton for 1.2 blocks for Brooklyn, creating an edge of 9.9% on over 1.5 at +165 odds.

Nic Claxton over 3.5 assists (+120)

• Edge: 8.7%
• Probability: 54.2%
• Projection: 4.3
• Game: Nets vs. Grizzlies (3:30PM ET)

Our expert modelling projects Nic Claxton for 4.3 assists, creating value on the over 3.5 line at +120 odds and a 8.7% edge.

Reed Sheppard over 1.5 steals (+132)

• Edge: 8.6%
• Probability: 51.7%
• Projection: 1.6
• Game: Rockets vs. Kings (9:00PM ET)

An 8.6% edge on the over 3.5 steals line makes Reed Sheppard a value play in Rockets vs. Kings, with our model projecting him for 1.6 steals at +132 odds.

Shaedon Sharpe over 1.5 steals (+164)

• Edge: 8.5%
• Probability: 46.4%
• Projection: 1.2
• Game: Knicks vs. Trail Blazers (6:00PM ET)

Simulations project Shaedon Sharpe for 1.2 steals here, creating a 8.5% edge on the over 1.5 line at +164 odds.

NBA player prop summary: Sunday, January 11, 2026

A quick summary of today’s top props by edge according to our model as of 12:07AM ET:

Matchup	Prop	Odds	Edge	Probability
Bucks vs. Nuggets	Peyton Watson over 1.5 blocks	+194 @ FanDuel	13.1%	47.1%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves	Jaden McDaniels over 1.5 steals	+172 @ DraftKings	12.1%	48.9%
Rockets vs. Kings	Kevin Durant over 2.5 3-pointers made	+150 @ FanDuel	10.4%	49.8%
Hawks vs. Warriors	Jalen Johnson over 1.5 steals	+154 @ DraftKings	10.4%	49.8%
Hawks vs. Warriors	Kristaps Porzingis over 1.5 blocks	+178 @ FanDuel	10.2%	46.2%
Rockets vs. Kings	Keon Ellis over 1.5 steals	+138 @ FanDuel	9.9%	52.0%
Nets vs. Grizzlies	Nic Claxton over 1.5 blocks	+165 @ BetMGM	9.9%	47.6%
Nets vs. Grizzlies	Nic Claxton over 3.5 assists	+120 @ BetMGM	8.7%	54.2%
Rockets vs. Kings	Reed Sheppard over 3.5 steals	+132 @ DraftKings	8.6%	51.7%
Knicks vs. Trail Blazers	Shaedon Sharpe over 1.5 steals	+164 @ DraftKings	8.5%	46.4%

Conclusion

For January 11, 2026, our NBA prop bets feature players such as Peyton Watson, Jaden McDaniels and Kevin Durant. Each pick is grounded in real-time data and advanced simulations to help you bet with clarity and purpose.

Built using automation and human oversight, this article draws on the latest data to deliver accurate, timely insights. If using this article for betting, Dimers promotes responsible gambling.