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Hawks vs. Warriors Prediction, Picks and Odds
Our detailed prediction and analysis for the Hawks vs. Warriors NBA game on January 11, 2026 is featured below. Drawing from 10,000 game simulations, we provide expert picks, betting odds, and insights.
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FINAL
NBA
FINAL
NBA
122
109
Jan 12, 1:30AM Chase Center
Jan 12, 1:30AM Chase Center
In-Play ProbabilitiesIn-Play
Game PredictionsPre-Game
Best Bets | TEAM | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Hawks | 27 | 32 | 35 | 28 | 122 |
Warriors | 28 | 25 | 25 | 31 | 109 |
Live Probabilities
Spread
Over / Under
Moneyline
Win %
>99%
<1%
Win Probability
| TEAM | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Hawks | 27 | 32 | 35 | 28 | 122 |
Warriors | 28 | 25 | 25 | 31 | 109 |
Q4 1:18 Gui Santos makes three point jump shot (Will Richard assists)
Q4 3:00 Nickeil Alexander-Walker misses two point running layup
Q4 3:16 CJ McCollum makes two point floating jump shot
Q4 3:58 Jimmy Butler III makes two point cutting layup (Draymond Green assists)
Q4 6:54 Jalen Johnson misses two point pullup jump shot
Q4 10:15 Luke Kennard makes three point jump shot (Corey Kispert assists)
Q3 6:19 Stephen Curry makes two point driving reverse layup
Q3 7:30 Jimmy Butler III makes two point driving floating bank jump shot
Q3 9:50 Moses Moody misses three point jump shot
Q2 00:01 CJ McCollum makes two point turnaround fadeaway jump shot
Play by Play
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
ALL
+3
Gui Santos makes three point jump shot (Will Richard assists)
122-109
Onyeka Okongwu misses regular free throw 2 of 2
Nickeil Alexander-Walker misses two point running layup
+2
CJ McCollum makes two point floating jump shot
118-102
+2
Jimmy Butler III makes two point cutting layup (Draymond Green assists)
116-101
Stephen Curry defensive rebound
Hawks lineup change (CJ McCollum, Jalen Johnson, Onyeka Okongwu, Nickeil Alexander-Walker, Vit Krejci)
Jalen Johnson misses two point pullup jump shot
Vit Krejci defensive rebound
+1
Corey Kispert makes regular free throw 1 of 2
109-87
Mouhamed Gueye defensive rebound
Draymond Green defensive rebound
+3
Luke Kennard makes three point jump shot (Corey Kispert assists)
103-81
Hawks lineup change (Onyeka Okongwu, Mouhamed Gueye, Nickeil Alexander-Walker, Luke Kennard, Corey Kispert)
Mouhamed Gueye defensive rebound
Warriors lineup change (Brandin Podziemski, Stephen Curry, Buddy Hield, Quinten Post, Draymond Green)
Jimmy Butler III defensive rebound
Al Horford defensive rebound
+2
Stephen Curry makes two point driving reverse layup
72-71
Warriors offensive rebound
+2
Jimmy Butler III makes two point driving floating bank jump shot
70-65
Warriors lineup change (Stephen Curry, Jimmy Butler III, De'Anthony Melton, Quinten Post, Draymond Green)
Moses Moody misses three point jump shot
Onyeka Okongwu defensive rebound
+1
Stephen Curry makes regular free throw 3 of 3
61-56
Dyson Daniels defensive rebound
+2
CJ McCollum makes two point turnaround fadeaway jump shot
59-53
Warriors lineup change (Stephen Curry, Moses Moody, Jimmy Butler III, De'Anthony Melton, Draymond Green)
Gary Payton II turnover (offensive foul)
Draymond Green defensive rebound
Stephen Curry misses three point pullup jump shot
+2
Jimmy Butler III makes two point driving floating jump shot
45-48
Jalen Johnson defensive rebound
Will Richard turnover (offensive foul)
+1
Jimmy Butler III makes regular free throw 1 of 1
41-44
CJ McCollum misses regular free throw 3 of 3
Nickeil Alexander-Walker defensive rebound
Vit Krejci misses three point jump shot
Jimmy Butler III misses three point jump shot
Jalen Johnson personal foul (Jimmy Butler III draws the foul)
+1
Jalen Johnson makes regular free throw 2 of 2
35-39
Warriors lineup change (Al Horford, Moses Moody, Jimmy Butler III, De'Anthony Melton, Will Richard)
Onyeka Okongwu offensive foul (Brandin Podziemski draws the foul)
Hawks lineup change (Asa Newell, Jalen Johnson, Nickeil Alexander-Walker, Vit Krejci, Corey Kispert)
+2
Stephen Curry makes two point reverse layup (Draymond Green assists)
34-39
+2
Dyson Daniels makes two point driving floating jump shot (Corey Kispert assists)
34-37
Hawks 60 second timeout
Hawks lineup change (Dyson Daniels, Jalen Johnson, Onyeka Okongwu, Vit Krejci, Corey Kispert)
Mouhamed Gueye misses two point fadeaway jump shot
+2
Gary Payton II makes two point cutting dunk (Brandin Podziemski assists)
29-35
Draymond Green personal foul (Mouhamed Gueye draws the foul)
Mouhamed Gueye defensive rebound
Brandin Podziemski offensive rebound
Gui Santos misses three point jump shot
Onyeka Okongwu misses three point jump shot
+2
De'Anthony Melton makes two point driving floating bank jump shot (Gui Santos assists)
29-33
Hawks offensive rebound
Corey Kispert misses three point jump shot
Corey Kispert misses two point cutting layup
+3
Brandin Podziemski makes three point running pullup jump shot (Stephen Curry assists)
27-31
Gui Santos personal foul (Mouhamed Gueye draws the foul)
Hawks lineup change (Dyson Daniels, Onyeka Okongwu, Mouhamed Gueye, Luke Kennard, Corey Kispert)
Start of 2nd Quarter
End of 1st Quarter.
De'Anthony Melton blocks Nickeil Alexander-Walker's two point driving floating jump shot
Stoppage (Out of bounds)
Jimmy Butler III misses three point jump shot
+2
Nickeil Alexander-Walker makes two point stepback jump shot
27-28
+2
Luke Kennard makes two point cutting finger roll layup (Onyeka Okongwu assists)
25-28
Onyeka Okongwu offensive rebound
De'Anthony Melton defensive rebound
Al Horford blocks Onyeka Okongwu's two point driving hook shot
Nickeil Alexander-Walker misses three point stepback jump shot
Hawks 60 second timeout
Al Horford defensive rebound
CJ McCollum misses two point turnaround fadeaway jump shot
Hawks lineup change (CJ McCollum, Onyeka Okongwu, Mouhamed Gueye, Nickeil Alexander-Walker, Luke Kennard)
Warriors offensive rebound
+1
Moses Moody makes regular free throw 3 of 3
21-18
+1
Moses Moody makes regular free throw 1 of 3
21-17
Moses Moody misses three point jump shot
Al Horford offensive rebound
Stephen Curry misses three point pullup jump shot
+3
Mouhamed Gueye makes three point jump shot (Jalen Johnson assists)
21-16
Jalen Johnson offensive rebound
Luke Kennard misses three point running pullup jump shot
Warriors lineup change (Gui Santos, Al Horford, Gary Payton II, Stephen Curry, Moses Moody)
Dyson Daniels personal foul (Draymond Green draws the foul)
+3
Jalen Johnson makes three point running jump shot (Dyson Daniels assists)
16-14
Vit Krejci defensive rebound
Dyson Daniels defensive rebound
Moses Moody misses three point pullup jump shot
Hawks lineup change (CJ McCollum, Dyson Daniels, Jalen Johnson, Mouhamed Gueye, Vit Krejci)
+2
Onyeka Okongwu makes two point driving floating jump shot (Jalen Johnson assists)
11-14
Draymond Green defensive rebound
Dyson Daniels misses two point driving floating jump shot
Jimmy Butler III offensive rebound
Dyson Daniels blocks Jimmy Butler III's two point driving layup
+3
Nickeil Alexander-Walker makes three point pullup jump shot (Onyeka Okongwu assists)
7-14
+3
Stephen Curry makes three point jump shot (Jimmy Butler III assists)
4-14
+1
Jalen Johnson makes regular free throw 1 of 2
4-11
Jalen Johnson misses regular free throw 2 of 2
Stoppage (Out of bounds)
Stoppage (Out of bounds)
Moses Moody shooting foul (Dyson Daniels draws the foul)
+1
Dyson Daniels makes regular free throw 2 of 2
3-9
Draymond Green defensive rebound
Nickeil Alexander-Walker misses three point jump shot
+2
Jimmy Butler III makes two point layup (Draymond Green assists)
2-6
+2
Jalen Johnson makes two point stepback jump shot (Dyson Daniels assists)
2-4
+1
Stephen Curry makes regular free throw 2 of 2
0-4
Stoppage (Out of bounds)
Dyson Daniels offensive rebound
Dyson Daniels misses two point floating jump shot
Jimmy Butler III defensive rebound
Onyeka Okongwu misses two point driving hook shot
Vit Krejci misses three point pullup jump shot
Jimmy Butler III turnover (out of bounds bad pass)
Hawks lineup change (Dyson Daniels, Jalen Johnson, Onyeka Okongwu, Nickeil Alexander-Walker, Vit Krejci)
Start of 1st Quarter
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Hawks vs. Warriors: Detailed Breakdown
Matchup Overview
- Teams: Hawks vs. Warriors
- Date: Sunday, January 11, 2026
- Time: 8:30 PM ET
- Venue: Chase Center
Current Betting Odds
- Spread: Warriors favored at -7.5
- Total (Over/Under): 236.5
- Moneyline Odds: Hawks +230, Warriors -250
Dimers' Win Probabilities
- Hawks: 28%
- Warriors: 72%
Dimers' predictive model, renowned for its accuracy, assesses each team's chances by simulating the outcome of the game 10,000 times. This method provides a precise and unbiased view.
Projected Final Score
Our predicted final score for this NBA matchup is Hawks 114-120 Warriors.
This prediction is based on each team's average score following 10,000 game simulations.
Our Prediction: Who Wins?
After extensive simulations, our model gives the Hawks a win probability of 28%, while the Warriors have a win probability of 72%. Discover the best spread, over/under, and moneyline odds for the game on this page.
Summary
According to our analysis, the Warriors are more likely to beat the Hawks in the NBA game at Chase Center on Monday. Discover the best spread, over/under and moneyline odds, picks and probabilities for the game on this page.
Our Hawks vs. Warriors predictions, based on sophisticated simulations and current data, guide you in making informed decisions. Remember to bet responsibly and within your financial limits.
For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.
When you click or tap on a link on Dimers that goes to a third-party website that we have a commercial relationship with (such as a sportsbook), we may receive a referral fee.
For further insights, explore our expert NBA predictions and the best NBA bets today, while our in-depth analysis includes NBA props, NBA futures, NBA odds, and the latest NBA news.
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