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Spurs vs. Timberwolves Prediction, Picks and Odds
Our detailed prediction and analysis for the Spurs vs. Timberwolves NBA game on January 11, 2026 is featured below. Drawing from 10,000 game simulations, we provide expert picks, betting odds, and insights.
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FINAL
NBA
FINAL
NBA
103
104
Jan 12, 12AM Target Center
Jan 12, 12AM Target Center
In-Play ProbabilitiesIn-Play
Game PredictionsPre-Game
Best Bets | TEAM | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Spurs | 31 | 24 | 30 | 18 | 103 |
Timberwolves | 24 | 18 | 29 | 33 | 104 |
Live Probabilities
Spread
Over / Under
Moneyline
Win %
22%
78%
Win Probability
| TEAM | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Spurs | 31 | 24 | 30 | 18 | 103 |
Timberwolves | 24 | 18 | 29 | 33 | 104 |
Q4 00:06 Victor Wembanyama misses two point pullup jump shot
Q4 00:57 Harrison Barnes misses three point jump shot
Q4 1:12 Julius Randle misses three point jump shot
Q4 3:00 Julius Randle makes two point putback layup
Q4 3:03 Jaden McDaniels misses three point pullup jump shot
Q4 4:16 Anthony Edwards makes two point running finger roll layup
Q4 6:48 Julius Randle misses three point jump shot
Q4 9:36 Lindy Waters III misses three point pullup jump shot
Q4 10:02 Naz Reid misses two point tip layup
Q4 10:20 Julian Champagnie misses three point running jump shot
Play by Play
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
ALL
Luke Kornet offensive rebound
Victor Wembanyama misses two point pullup jump shot
Harrison Barnes misses three point jump shot
Julius Randle misses three point jump shot
+2
Julius Randle makes two point putback layup
98-98
Jaden McDaniels misses three point pullup jump shot
Timberwolves 60 second timeout
Stoppage (Out of bounds)
+1
Victor Wembanyama makes regular free throw 1 of 1
96-93
+2
Anthony Edwards makes two point running finger roll layup
95-93
Spurs defensive rebound
Victor Wembanyama shooting foul (Julius Randle draws the foul)
Naz Reid offensive rebound
Julius Randle misses three point jump shot
+1
Victor Wembanyama makes technical free throw 1 of 1
88-81
Timberwolves lineup change (Julius Randle, Donte DiVincenzo, Anthony Edwards, Naz Reid, Jaden McDaniels)
Bones Hyland shooting foul (Stephon Castle draws the foul)
+1
Stephon Castle makes regular free throw 1 of 2
86-78
+1
Bones Hyland makes regular free throw 2 of 2
85-76
Lindy Waters III misses three point pullup jump shot
Naz Reid misses two point tip layup
Julian Champagnie misses three point running jump shot
Julian Champagnie defensive rebound
Timberwolves lineup change (Rudy Gobert, Bones Hyland, Donte DiVincenzo, Naz Reid, Jaden McDaniels)
+3
Naz Reid makes three point running jump shot (Julius Randle assists)
83-71
+2
Bones Hyland makes two point driving finger roll layup
83-68
Timberwolves offensive rebound
+3
Lindy Waters III makes three point jump shot (Victor Wembanyama assists)
80-64
+1
Stephon Castle makes regular free throw 1 of 2
76-61
+3
Naz Reid makes three point jump shot (Anthony Edwards assists)
75-61
Stephon Castle defensive rebound
+2
Donte DiVincenzo makes two point running dunk (Naz Reid assists)
69-56
Stephon Castle offensive foul (Donte DiVincenzo draws the foul)
Anthony Edwards misses three point running jump shot
Spurs lineup change (Harrison Barnes, Stephon Castle, Luke Kornet, Dylan Harper, Keldon Johnson)
Jaden McDaniels shooting foul (Stephon Castle draws the foul)
Rudy Gobert defensive rebound
Julian Champagnie defensive rebound
Jaden McDaniels blocks De'Aaron Fox's two point running layup
Donte DiVincenzo misses three point pullup jump shot
Victor Wembanyama misses three point stepback jump shot
Jaden McDaniels turnover (bad pass) (Victor Wembanyama steals)
Timberwolves misses heave shot
Victor Wembanyama shooting foul (Anthony Edwards draws the foul)
Julius Randle shooting foul (Victor Wembanyama draws the foul)
Donte DiVincenzo personal foul (Victor Wembanyama draws the foul)
Timberwolves offensive rebound
Victor Wembanyama defensive rebound
Spurs lineup change (Harrison Barnes, Lindy Waters III, De'Aaron Fox, Victor Wembanyama, Keldon Johnson)
Timberwolves lineup change (Rudy Gobert, Julius Randle, Anthony Edwards, Jaden McDaniels, Mike Conley)
+1
Anthony Edwards makes regular free throw 2 of 2
41-36
Julius Randle misses two point jump shot
Luke Kornet defensive rebound
Anthony Edwards defensive rebound
Stephon Castle defensive rebound
Dylan Harper misses three point jump shot
Stephon Castle misses two point stepback jump shot
Donte DiVincenzo defensive rebound
+2
Naz Reid makes two point driving finger roll layup (Donte DiVincenzo assists)
36-31
Dylan Harper turnover (bad pass) (Rudy Gobert steals)
Spurs lineup change (Harrison Barnes, Stephon Castle, Julian Champagnie, Luke Kornet, Dylan Harper)
+3
Bones Hyland makes three point jump shot (Donte DiVincenzo assists)
36-29
Julian Champagnie misses three point jump shot
Naz Reid blocks De'Aaron Fox's two point running layup
Donte DiVincenzo misses three point pullup jump shot
De'Aaron Fox defensive rebound
Jaden McDaniels defensive rebound
Victor Wembanyama defensive rebound
Stephon Castle personal foul (Rudy Gobert draws the foul)
Victor Wembanyama misses three point jump shot
Bones Hyland misses three point pullup jump shot
Donte DiVincenzo defensive rebound
Julian Champagnie defensive rebound
Naz Reid offensive rebound
Stephon Castle turnover (bad pass) (Naz Reid steals)
Naz Reid defensive rebound
Spurs offensive rebound
Bones Hyland blocks Stephon Castle's two point driving layup
Rudy Gobert offensive rebound
Bones Hyland misses three point jump shot
De'Aaron Fox defensive rebound
End of 1st Quarter.
Spurs lineup change (Kelly Olynyk, Stephon Castle, Julian Champagnie, De'Aaron Fox, Victor Wembanyama)
Timberwolves lineup change (Rudy Gobert, Bones Hyland, Donte DiVincenzo, Naz Reid, Jaden McDaniels)
Start of 2nd Quarter
Spurs offensive rebound
+3
Keldon Johnson makes three point jump shot (De'Aaron Fox assists)
31-23
+2
De'Aaron Fox makes two point turnaround fadeaway jump shot
28-21
Naz Reid defensive rebound
+3
Mike Conley makes three point jump shot (Julius Randle assists)
26-21
Keldon Johnson misses two point driving hook shot
+1
Jaden McDaniels makes regular free throw 1 of 2
26-17
+3
Julian Champagnie makes three point jump shot (Dylan Harper assists)
26-16
Luke Kornet shooting foul (Julius Randle draws the foul)
+1
Julius Randle makes regular free throw 1 of 1
23-16
+2
Julius Randle makes two point running layup (Jaylen Clark assists)
23-15
Dylan Harper misses two point driving layup
Naz Reid misses three point jump shot
+2
Luke Kornet makes two point tip layup
23-13
Jaylen Clark personal foul (Dylan Harper draws the foul)
Spurs defensive rebound
Timberwolves lineup change (Julius Randle, Anthony Edwards, Naz Reid, Jaylen Clark, Mike Conley)
Spurs lineup change (Stephon Castle, Julian Champagnie, Luke Kornet, Dylan Harper, Keldon Johnson)
Timberwolves lineup change (Rudy Gobert, Anthony Edwards, Naz Reid, Jaylen Clark, Mike Conley)
Stephon Castle turnover (lost ball) (Donte DiVincenzo steals)
Naz Reid misses two point driving floating bank jump shot
Harrison Barnes misses two point jump shot
+2
Stephon Castle makes two point driving layup
21-11
Spurs offensive rebound
Stephon Castle misses regular free throw 1 of 2
+1
Stephon Castle makes regular free throw 2 of 2
19-9
Jaden McDaniels misses three point stepback jump shot
Spurs lineup change (Harrison Barnes, Stephon Castle, Luke Kornet, Dylan Harper, Keldon Johnson)
De'Aaron Fox misses two point driving layup
+3
Donte DiVincenzo makes three point jump shot (Rudy Gobert assists)
18-9
+2
Jaden McDaniels makes two point driving layup
16-6
Harrison Barnes misses three point jump shot
Stoppage (Out of bounds)
Spurs lineup change (Harrison Barnes, Stephon Castle, De'Aaron Fox, Luke Kornet, Keldon Johnson)
+2
Jaden McDaniels makes two point driving floating jump shot (Rudy Gobert assists)
16-4
Julian Champagnie misses three point jump shot
+3
Julian Champagnie makes three point jump shot (Stephon Castle assists)
16-0
Julius Randle misses two point fadeaway jump shot
Spurs lineup change (Harrison Barnes, Stephon Castle, Julian Champagnie, De'Aaron Fox, Luke Kornet)
Anthony Edwards misses two point stepback jump shot
Anthony Edwards shooting foul (Victor Wembanyama draws the foul)
+1
Victor Wembanyama makes regular free throw 1 of 2
12-0
Julius Randle misses two point turnaround jump shot
+3
Harrison Barnes makes three point jump shot (De'Aaron Fox assists)
11-0
Anthony Edwards misses two point turnaround fadeaway jump shot
De'Aaron Fox misses three point running pullup jump shot
Donte DiVincenzo turnover (bad pass) (Victor Wembanyama steals)
Rudy Gobert misses two point turnaround bank hook shot
Rudy Gobert offensive rebound
Julius Randle turnover (lost ball) (De'Aaron Fox steals)
+2
De'Aaron Fox makes two point running pullup jump shot
2-0
Julius Randle defensive rebound
De'Aaron Fox misses two point running pullup jump shot
Victor Wembanyama misses two point driving layup
De'Aaron Fox defensive rebound
Victor Wembanyama misses three point jump shot
Victor Wembanyama vs. Rudy Gobert (Stephon Castle gains possession)
Start of 1st Quarter
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Spurs vs. Timberwolves: Detailed Breakdown
Matchup Overview
- Teams: Spurs vs. Timberwolves
- Date: Sunday, January 11, 2026
- Time: 7:00 PM ET
- Venue: Target Center
Current Betting Odds
- Spread: Timberwolves favored at -2.5
- Total (Over/Under): 232.5
- Moneyline Odds: Spurs +120, Timberwolves -134
Dimers' Win Probabilities
- Spurs: 44%
- Timberwolves: 56%
Dimers' predictive model, renowned for its accuracy, assesses each team's chances by simulating the outcome of the game 10,000 times. This method provides a precise and unbiased view.
Projected Final Score
Our predicted final score for this NBA matchup is Spurs 114-116 Timberwolves.
This prediction is based on each team's average score following 10,000 game simulations.
Our Prediction: Who Wins?
After extensive simulations, our model gives the Spurs a win probability of 44%, while the Timberwolves have a win probability of 56%. Discover the best spread, over/under, and moneyline odds for the game on this page.
Summary
According to our analysis, the Timberwolves are more likely to beat the Spurs in the NBA game at Target Center on Monday. Discover the best spread, over/under and moneyline odds, picks and probabilities for the game on this page.
Our Spurs vs. Timberwolves predictions, based on sophisticated simulations and current data, guide you in making informed decisions. Remember to bet responsibly and within your financial limits.
For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.
When you click or tap on a link on Dimers that goes to a third-party website that we have a commercial relationship with (such as a sportsbook), we may receive a referral fee.
For further insights, explore our expert NBA predictions and the best NBA bets today, while our in-depth analysis includes NBA props, NBA futures, NBA odds, and the latest NBA news.
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