Heat vs. Thunder Prediction, Picks and Odds

Our detailed prediction and analysis for the Heat vs. Thunder NBA game on January 11, 2026 is featured below. Drawing from 10,000 game simulations, we provide expert picks, betting odds, and insights.
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Heat
112
124
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Thunder
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TEAM1234T
Heat
34 25 26 27 112
Thunder
32 22 39 31 124
Live Probabilities
Win %
  • Heat
    <1%
  • Thunder
    >99%
Win Probability
TEAM1234T
Heat
34 25 26 27 112
Thunder
32 22 39 31 124
Q4 1:05 Simone Fontecchio makes three point jump shot (Kasparas Jakucionis assists)
Q4 4:57 Bam Adebayo misses two point jump shot
Q4 5:20 Jalen Williams misses two point pullup jump shot
Q4 6:37 Tyler Herro misses three point jump shot
Q4 11:06 Kel'el Ware makes two point alley-oop dunk (Nikola Jovic assists)
Q3 1:29 Ajay Mitchell misses three point jump shot
Q3 1:52 Andrew Wiggins makes three point jump shot (Dru Smith assists)
Q3 3:19 Kel'el Ware misses three point jump shot
Q3 3:32 Isaiah Joe makes three point jump shot (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander assists)
Q3 7:11 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes two point driving floating bank jump shot
Play by Play
  1. Q4 1:05
    +3
    Simone Fontecchio makes three point jump shot (Kasparas Jakucionis assists)
    112-124
  2. Q4 1:38
    Thunder 60 second timeout
  3. Q4 1:49
    +1
    Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes regular free throw 1 of 2
    107-123
  4. Q4 2:43
    Bam Adebayo turnover (lost ball) (Aaron Wiggins steals)
  5. Q4 4:06
    Instant replay (Challenge: Stands)
  6. Q4 4:06
    Cason Wallace shooting foul (Pelle Larsson draws the foul)
  7. Q4 4:57
    Bam Adebayo misses two point jump shot
  8. Q4 5:17
    Chet Holmgren offensive rebound
  9. Q4 5:20
    Jalen Williams misses two point pullup jump shot
  10. Q4 5:41
    Davion Mitchell offensive rebound
  11. Q4 6:37
    Tyler Herro misses three point jump shot
  12. Q4 7:16
    Chet Holmgren offensive rebound
  13. Q4 8:55
    Heat lineup change (Bam Adebayo, Davion Mitchell, Tyler Herro, Nikola Jovic, Andrew Wiggins)
  14. Q4 9:05
    +1
    Isaiah Joe makes regular free throw 2 of 3
    90-105
  15. Q4 9:59
    Aaron Wiggins defensive rebound
  16. Q4 10:20
    Isaiah Joe offensive rebound
  17. Q4 11:06
    +2
    Kel'el Ware makes two point alley-oop dunk (Nikola Jovic assists)
    87-95
  18. Q4 11:47
    Nikola Jovic personal foul (Aaron Wiggins draws the foul)
  19. Q3 00:39
    Shai Gilgeous-Alexander misses regular free throw 1 of 2
  20. Q3 00:39
    +1
    Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes regular free throw 2 of 2
    82-91
  21. Q3 1:29
    Ajay Mitchell misses three point jump shot
  22. Q3 1:52
    +3
    Andrew Wiggins makes three point jump shot (Dru Smith assists)
    79-90
  23. Q3 3:19
    Kel'el Ware misses three point jump shot
  24. Q3 3:32
    +3
    Isaiah Joe makes three point jump shot (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander assists)
    74-84
  25. Q3 4:49
    Isaiah Joe misses regular free throw 2 of 2
  26. Q3 4:58
    Thunder lineup change (Jaylin Williams, Alex Caruso, Isaiah Joe, Ajay Mitchell, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander)
  27. Q3 5:22
    Heat 60 second timeout
  28. Q3 5:42
    Jalen Williams personal foul (Andrew Wiggins draws the foul)
  29. Q3 7:11
    +2
    Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes two point driving floating bank jump shot
    68-69
  30. Q3 7:38
    +2
    Chet Holmgren makes two point cutting layup
    66-67
  31. Q3 8:35
    +1
    Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes regular free throw 1 of 1
    66-63
  32. Q3 9:01
    +2
    Cason Wallace makes two point cutting layup (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander assists)
    66-60
  33. Q3 10:07
    Stoppage (Out of bounds)
  34. Q3 11:02
    Jalen Williams misses two point pullup jump shot
  35. Q3 11:10
    Andrew Wiggins personal foul (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander draws the foul)
  36. Q2 00:02
    +2
    Nikola Jovic makes two point cutting layup (Davion Mitchell assists)
    59-54
  37. Q2 00:53
    +2
    Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes two point driving layup
    55-54
  38. Q2 1:24
    Stoppage (Out of bounds)
  39. Q2 1:45
    Dru Smith misses regular free throw 1 of 2
  40. Q2 2:27
    Jaylin Williams misses two point driving layup
  41. Q2 2:44
    +1
    Jaylin Williams makes regular free throw 2 of 2
    49-46
  42. Q2 3:14
    Nikola Jovic defensive rebound
  43. Q2 4:18
    Jaime Jaquez Jr. misses three point jump shot
  44. Q2 5:03
    Jalen Williams turnover (offensive foul)
  45. Q2 5:03
    Thunder lineup change (Cason Wallace, Jaylin Williams, Alex Caruso, Luguentz Dort, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander)
  46. Q2 5:20
    Bam Adebayo defensive rebound
  47. Q2 5:24
    Heat lineup change (Bam Adebayo, Davion Mitchell, Nikola Jovic, Jaime Jaquez Jr., Pelle Larsson)
  48. Q2 5:24
    Jalen Williams misses regular free throw 1 of 2
  49. Q2 5:24
    Thunder offensive rebound
  50. Q2 5:36
    Nikola Jovic misses three point jump shot
  51. Q2 5:54
    Ajay Mitchell misses two point cutting layup
  52. Q2 6:10
    Chet Holmgren blocks Tyler Herro's two point driving layup
  53. Q2 6:16
    Pelle Larsson misses three point jump shot
  54. Q2 6:35
    Heat 60 second timeout
  55. Q2 6:38
    Aaron Wiggins misses three point running jump shot
  56. Q2 6:45
    Davion Mitchell misses two point driving layup
  57. Q2 7:11
    Tyler Herro personal foul (Jalen Williams draws the foul)
  58. Q2 7:11
    Thunder lineup change (Luguentz Dort, Chet Holmgren, Ajay Mitchell, Jalen Williams, Aaron Wiggins)
  59. Q2 7:20
    Heat offensive rebound
  60. Q2 7:21
    Bam Adebayo misses two point tip layup
  61. Q2 7:29
    Pelle Larsson defensive rebound
  62. Q2 7:46
    Nikola Jovic personal foul (Chet Holmgren draws the foul)
  63. Q2 7:56
    Pelle Larsson turnover (out of bounds bad pass)
  64. Q2 8:04
    Heat lineup change (Kel'el Ware, Nikola Jovic, Dru Smith, Pelle Larsson, Andrew Wiggins)
  65. Q2 8:15
    +2
    Aaron Wiggins makes two point driving dunk (Jalen Williams assists)
    41-38
  66. Q2 8:35
    Jaime Jaquez Jr. offensive foul (Jalen Williams draws the foul)
  67. Q2 8:52
    +2
    Jalen Williams makes two point pullup jump shot
    41-36
  68. Q2 9:02
    Chet Holmgren misses three point jump shot
  69. Q2 9:28
    +2
    Jalen Williams makes two point running alley-oop dunk (Aaron Wiggins assists)
    38-34
  70. Q2 9:39
    Jalen Williams turnover (lost ball) (Kel'el Ware steals)
  71. Q2 9:57
    Ajay Mitchell defensive rebound
  72. Q2 10:12
    Nikola Jovic defensive rebound
  73. Q2 10:32
    Thunder 60 second timeout
  74. Q2 10:37
    Dru Smith defensive rebound
  75. Q2 10:53
    +2
    Kel'el Ware makes two point hook shot (Dru Smith assists)
    36-32
  76. Q2 11:29
    Dru Smith personal foul (Kenrich Williams draws the foul)
  77. Q2 11:43
    Kel'el Ware misses two point driving dunk
  78. Q2 11:55
    Jump ball. Nikola Jovic vs. Ajay Mitchell (Andrew Wiggins gains possession)
  79. Q2 12:00
    Start of 2nd Quarter
  80. Q1 00:00
    +3
    Andrew Wiggins makes three point jump shot
    34-32
  81. Q1 00:03
    +2
    Dru Smith makes two point floating jump shot (Jaime Jaquez Jr. assists)
    31-32
  82. Q1 00:29
    Dru Smith turnover (out of bounds bad pass)
  83. Q1 00:43
    Thunder lineup change (Jaylin Williams, Alex Caruso, Isaiah Joe, Ajay Mitchell, Jalen Williams)
  84. Q1 00:50
    Andrew Wiggins defensive rebound
  85. Q1 00:51
    Shai Gilgeous-Alexander misses regular free throw 2 of 2
  86. Q1 00:58
    Ajay Mitchell defensive rebound
  87. Q1 1:16
    +1
    Jaylin Williams makes regular free throw 1 of 2
    29-28
  88. Q1 1:31
    +2
    Kel'el Ware makes two point cutting dunk (Dru Smith assists)
    29-27
  89. Q1 1:51
    Jaylin Williams defensive rebound
  90. Q1 2:09
    +2
    Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes two point stepback jump shot
    27-25
  91. Q1 2:23
    Andrew Wiggins misses two point pullup jump shot
  92. Q1 2:43
    +1
    Jaylin Williams makes regular free throw 2 of 2
    27-23
  93. Q1 2:43
    Kel'el Ware shooting foul (Jaylin Williams draws the foul)
  94. Q1 2:58
    +3
    Jaylin Williams makes three point jump shot (Alex Caruso assists)
    27-21
  95. Q1 3:02
    Stoppage (Out of bounds)
  96. Q1 3:17
    Heat lineup change (Kel'el Ware, Nikola Jovic, Dru Smith, Jaime Jaquez Jr., Andrew Wiggins)
  97. Q1 3:23
    Jaylin Williams misses three point jump shot
  98. Q1 3:40
    Shai Gilgeous-Alexander turnover (bad pass) (Pelle Larsson steals)
  99. Q1 4:04
    Stoppage (Out of bounds)
  100. Q1 4:04
    Heat lineup change (Tyler Herro, Kel'el Ware, Dru Smith, Jaime Jaquez Jr., Pelle Larsson)
  101. Q1 4:28
    +2
    Davion Mitchell makes two point driving floating bank jump shot
    23-18
  102. Q1 5:08
    Thunder lineup change (Cason Wallace, Jaylin Williams, Alex Caruso, Isaiah Joe, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander)
  103. Q1 5:10
    +2
    Tyler Herro makes two point driving floating jump shot (Davion Mitchell assists)
    21-16
  104. Q1 5:21
    Chet Holmgren misses three point running jump shot
  105. Q1 5:32
    Shai Gilgeous-Alexander turnover (bad pass) (Jaime Jaquez Jr. steals)
  106. Q1 5:40
    Chet Holmgren blocks Pelle Larsson's two point driving layup
  107. Q1 5:58
    +2
    Tyler Herro makes two point driving layup (Jaime Jaquez Jr. assists)
    19-14
  108. Q1 6:22
    Bam Adebayo turnover (out of bounds lost ball)
  109. Q1 6:34
    +3
    Chet Holmgren makes three point jump shot (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander assists)
    17-12
  110. Q1 6:59
    Luguentz Dort offensive foul (Pelle Larsson draws the foul)
  111. Q1 7:05
    Shai Gilgeous-Alexander shooting foul (Pelle Larsson draws the foul)
  112. Q1 7:05
    +1
    Pelle Larsson makes regular free throw 1 of 1
    17-9
  113. Q1 7:15
    Chet Holmgren offensive rebound
  114. Q1 7:26
    Cason Wallace defensive rebound
  115. Q1 7:46
    +2
    Jalen Williams makes two point pullup jump shot (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander assists)
    14-7
  116. Q1 7:59
    Bam Adebayo misses three point jump shot
  117. Q1 8:08
    Luguentz Dort misses two point turnaround fadeaway jump shot
  118. Q1 8:40
    Thunder offensive rebound
  119. Q1 8:40
    Bam Adebayo shooting foul (Cason Wallace draws the foul)
  120. Q1 8:41
    Davion Mitchell turnover (bad pass) (Jalen Williams steals)
  121. Q1 8:46
    Pelle Larsson blocks Cason Wallace's two point driving floating bank jump shot
  122. Q1 9:10
    Jalen Williams turnover (out of bounds bad pass)
  123. Q1 9:20
    Tyler Herro misses two point fadeaway jump shot
  124. Q1 9:35
    Chet Holmgren offensive rebound
  125. Q1 9:38
    Shai Gilgeous-Alexander misses three point jump shot
  126. Q1 9:58
    Bam Adebayo defensive rebound
  127. Q1 10:08
    Tyler Herro personal foul (Cason Wallace draws the foul)
  128. Q1 10:16
    Bam Adebayo misses two point driving floating jump shot
  129. Q1 10:25
    Shai Gilgeous-Alexander misses two point pullup jump shot
  130. Q1 10:49
    Andrew Wiggins defensive rebound
  131. Q1 11:08
    +3
    Andrew Wiggins makes three point jump shot (Davion Mitchell assists)
    3-2
  132. Q1 11:37
    Luguentz Dort defensive rebound
  133. Q1 12:00
    Start of 1st Quarter
  134. Q1 12:00
    Bam Adebayo vs. Chet Holmgren (Tyler Herro gains possession)
Box Score
Heat
PosPlayerPts
Thunder
PosPlayerPts

Heat vs. Thunder: Detailed Breakdown

Matchup Overview

  • Teams: Heat vs. Thunder
  • Date: Sunday, January 11, 2026
  • Time: 7:00 PM ET
  • Venue: Paycom Center

Current Betting Odds

  • Spread: Thunder favored at -14.5
  • Total (Over/Under): 234
  • Moneyline Odds: Heat +625, Thunder -800

Dimers' Win Probabilities

  • Heat: 14%
  • Thunder: 86%

Dimers' predictive model, renowned for its accuracy, assesses each team's chances by simulating the outcome of the game 10,000 times. This method provides a precise and unbiased view.

Projected Final Score

Our predicted final score for this NBA matchup is Heat 109-122 Thunder.

This prediction is based on each team's average score following 10,000 game simulations.

Our Prediction: Who Wins?

After extensive simulations, our model gives the Heat a win probability of 14%, while the Thunder have a win probability of 86%. Discover the best spread, over/under, and moneyline odds for the game on this page.

Summary

According to our analysis, the Thunder are more likely to beat the Heat in the NBA game at Paycom Center on Monday. Discover the best spread, over/under and moneyline odds, picks and probabilities for the game on this page.

Our Heat vs. Thunder predictions, based on sophisticated simulations and current data, guide you in making informed decisions. Remember to bet responsibly and within your financial limits.

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