Spurs vs. Timberwolves Prediction, Picks and Odds

Our detailed prediction and analysis for the Spurs vs. Timberwolves NBA game on January 11, 2026 is featured below. Drawing from 10,000 game simulations, we provide expert picks, betting odds, and insights.
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NBA
Spurs
103
104
Target Center
Timberwolves
Target Center
TEAM1234T
Spurs
31 24 30 18 103
Timberwolves
24 18 29 33 104
Live Probabilities
Win %
  • Spurs
    22%
  • Timberwolves
    78%
Win Probability
TEAM1234T
Spurs
31 24 30 18 103
Timberwolves
24 18 29 33 104
Q4 00:06 Victor Wembanyama misses two point pullup jump shot
Q4 00:57 Harrison Barnes misses three point jump shot
Q4 1:12 Julius Randle misses three point jump shot
Q4 3:00 Julius Randle makes two point putback layup
Q4 3:03 Jaden McDaniels misses three point pullup jump shot
Q4 4:16 Anthony Edwards makes two point running finger roll layup
Q4 6:48 Julius Randle misses three point jump shot
Q4 9:36 Lindy Waters III misses three point pullup jump shot
Q4 10:02 Naz Reid misses two point tip layup
Q4 10:20 Julian Champagnie misses three point running jump shot
Play by Play
  1. Q4 00:05
    Luke Kornet offensive rebound
  2. Q4 00:06
    Victor Wembanyama misses two point pullup jump shot
  3. Q4 00:57
    Harrison Barnes misses three point jump shot
  4. Q4 1:12
    Julius Randle misses three point jump shot
  5. Q4 3:00
    +2
    Julius Randle makes two point putback layup
    98-98
  6. Q4 3:03
    Jaden McDaniels misses three point pullup jump shot
  7. Q4 3:46
    Timberwolves 60 second timeout
  8. Q4 3:46
    Stoppage (Out of bounds)
  9. Q4 3:54
    +1
    Victor Wembanyama makes regular free throw 1 of 1
    96-93
  10. Q4 4:16
    +2
    Anthony Edwards makes two point running finger roll layup
    95-93
  11. Q4 5:54
    Spurs defensive rebound
  12. Q4 5:54
    Victor Wembanyama shooting foul (Julius Randle draws the foul)
  13. Q4 6:44
    Naz Reid offensive rebound
  14. Q4 6:48
    Julius Randle misses three point jump shot
  15. Q4 7:24
    +1
    Victor Wembanyama makes technical free throw 1 of 1
    88-81
  16. Q4 7:24
    Timberwolves lineup change (Julius Randle, Donte DiVincenzo, Anthony Edwards, Naz Reid, Jaden McDaniels)
  17. Q4 8:17
    Bones Hyland shooting foul (Stephon Castle draws the foul)
  18. Q4 8:17
    +1
    Stephon Castle makes regular free throw 1 of 2
    86-78
  19. Q4 9:26
    +1
    Bones Hyland makes regular free throw 2 of 2
    85-76
  20. Q4 9:36
    Lindy Waters III misses three point pullup jump shot
  21. Q4 10:02
    Naz Reid misses two point tip layup
  22. Q4 10:20
    Julian Champagnie misses three point running jump shot
  23. Q4 10:55
    Julian Champagnie defensive rebound
  24. Q4 12:00
    Timberwolves lineup change (Rudy Gobert, Bones Hyland, Donte DiVincenzo, Naz Reid, Jaden McDaniels)
  25. Q3 00:24
    +3
    Naz Reid makes three point running jump shot (Julius Randle assists)
    83-71
  26. Q3 00:40
    +2
    Bones Hyland makes two point driving finger roll layup
    83-68
  27. Q3 1:39
    Timberwolves offensive rebound
  28. Q3 1:47
    +3
    Lindy Waters III makes three point jump shot (Victor Wembanyama assists)
    80-64
  29. Q3 3:20
    +1
    Stephon Castle makes regular free throw 1 of 2
    76-61
  30. Q3 3:31
    +3
    Naz Reid makes three point jump shot (Anthony Edwards assists)
    75-61
  31. Q3 4:22
    Stephon Castle defensive rebound
  32. Q3 5:01
    +2
    Donte DiVincenzo makes two point running dunk (Naz Reid assists)
    69-56
  33. Q3 6:13
    Stephon Castle offensive foul (Donte DiVincenzo draws the foul)
  34. Q3 6:29
    Anthony Edwards misses three point running jump shot
  35. Q3 7:11
    Spurs lineup change (Harrison Barnes, Stephon Castle, Luke Kornet, Dylan Harper, Keldon Johnson)
  36. Q3 7:11
    Jaden McDaniels shooting foul (Stephon Castle draws the foul)
  37. Q3 8:12
    Rudy Gobert defensive rebound
  38. Q3 8:25
    Julian Champagnie defensive rebound
  39. Q3 9:12
    Jaden McDaniels blocks De'Aaron Fox's two point running layup
  40. Q3 9:33
    Donte DiVincenzo misses three point pullup jump shot
  41. Q3 10:25
    Victor Wembanyama misses three point stepback jump shot
  42. Q3 11:04
    Jaden McDaniels turnover (bad pass) (Victor Wembanyama steals)
  43. Q2 00:00
    Timberwolves misses heave shot
  44. Q2 00:28
    Victor Wembanyama shooting foul (Anthony Edwards draws the foul)
  45. Q2 1:10
    Julius Randle shooting foul (Victor Wembanyama draws the foul)
  46. Q2 1:39
    Donte DiVincenzo personal foul (Victor Wembanyama draws the foul)
  47. Q2 1:52
    Timberwolves offensive rebound
  48. Q2 2:58
    Victor Wembanyama defensive rebound
  49. Q2 3:00
    Spurs lineup change (Harrison Barnes, Lindy Waters III, De'Aaron Fox, Victor Wembanyama, Keldon Johnson)
  50. Q2 4:07
    Timberwolves lineup change (Rudy Gobert, Julius Randle, Anthony Edwards, Jaden McDaniels, Mike Conley)
  51. Q2 4:07
    +1
    Anthony Edwards makes regular free throw 2 of 2
    41-36
  52. Q2 5:19
    Julius Randle misses two point jump shot
  53. Q2 6:02
    Luke Kornet defensive rebound
  54. Q2 6:06
    Anthony Edwards defensive rebound
  55. Q2 6:44
    Stephon Castle defensive rebound
  56. Q2 6:57
    Dylan Harper misses three point jump shot
  57. Q2 7:01
    Stephon Castle misses two point stepback jump shot
  58. Q2 7:16
    Donte DiVincenzo defensive rebound
  59. Q2 7:32
    +2
    Naz Reid makes two point driving finger roll layup (Donte DiVincenzo assists)
    36-31
  60. Q2 7:50
    Dylan Harper turnover (bad pass) (Rudy Gobert steals)
  61. Q2 7:59
    Spurs lineup change (Harrison Barnes, Stephon Castle, Julian Champagnie, Luke Kornet, Dylan Harper)
  62. Q2 8:00
    +3
    Bones Hyland makes three point jump shot (Donte DiVincenzo assists)
    36-29
  63. Q2 8:09
    Julian Champagnie misses three point jump shot
  64. Q2 8:18
    Naz Reid blocks De'Aaron Fox's two point running layup
  65. Q2 8:26
    Donte DiVincenzo misses three point pullup jump shot
  66. Q2 8:48
    De'Aaron Fox defensive rebound
  67. Q2 9:03
    Jaden McDaniels defensive rebound
  68. Q2 9:14
    Victor Wembanyama defensive rebound
  69. Q2 9:22
    Stephon Castle personal foul (Rudy Gobert draws the foul)
  70. Q2 9:30
    Victor Wembanyama misses three point jump shot
  71. Q2 9:40
    Bones Hyland misses three point pullup jump shot
  72. Q2 10:02
    Donte DiVincenzo defensive rebound
  73. Q2 10:12
    Julian Champagnie defensive rebound
  74. Q2 10:14
    Naz Reid offensive rebound
  75. Q2 10:25
    Stephon Castle turnover (bad pass) (Naz Reid steals)
  76. Q2 10:57
    Naz Reid defensive rebound
  77. Q2 11:05
    Spurs offensive rebound
  78. Q2 11:06
    Bones Hyland blocks Stephon Castle's two point driving layup
  79. Q2 11:12
    Rudy Gobert offensive rebound
  80. Q2 11:15
    Bones Hyland misses three point jump shot
  81. Q2 11:43
    De'Aaron Fox defensive rebound
  82. Q1 00:00
    End of 1st Quarter.
  83. Q2 12:00
    Spurs lineup change (Kelly Olynyk, Stephon Castle, Julian Champagnie, De'Aaron Fox, Victor Wembanyama)
  84. Q2 12:00
    Timberwolves lineup change (Rudy Gobert, Bones Hyland, Donte DiVincenzo, Naz Reid, Jaden McDaniels)
  85. Q2 12:00
    Start of 2nd Quarter
  86. Q1 00:00
    Spurs offensive rebound
  87. Q1 00:19
    +3
    Keldon Johnson makes three point jump shot (De'Aaron Fox assists)
    31-23
  88. Q1 00:54
    +2
    De'Aaron Fox makes two point turnaround fadeaway jump shot
    28-21
  89. Q1 1:15
    Naz Reid defensive rebound
  90. Q1 1:42
    +3
    Mike Conley makes three point jump shot (Julius Randle assists)
    26-21
  91. Q1 1:50
    Keldon Johnson misses two point driving hook shot
  92. Q1 1:57
    +1
    Jaden McDaniels makes regular free throw 1 of 2
    26-17
  93. Q1 2:10
    +3
    Julian Champagnie makes three point jump shot (Dylan Harper assists)
    26-16
  94. Q1 2:27
    Luke Kornet shooting foul (Julius Randle draws the foul)
  95. Q1 2:27
    +1
    Julius Randle makes regular free throw 1 of 1
    23-16
  96. Q1 2:27
    +2
    Julius Randle makes two point running layup (Jaylen Clark assists)
    23-15
  97. Q1 2:32
    Dylan Harper misses two point driving layup
  98. Q1 2:45
    Naz Reid misses three point jump shot
  99. Q1 3:06
    +2
    Luke Kornet makes two point tip layup
    23-13
  100. Q1 3:17
    Jaylen Clark personal foul (Dylan Harper draws the foul)
  101. Q1 3:27
    Spurs defensive rebound
  102. Q1 3:27
    Timberwolves lineup change (Julius Randle, Anthony Edwards, Naz Reid, Jaylen Clark, Mike Conley)
  103. Q1 3:39
    Spurs lineup change (Stephon Castle, Julian Champagnie, Luke Kornet, Dylan Harper, Keldon Johnson)
  104. Q1 3:39
    Timberwolves lineup change (Rudy Gobert, Anthony Edwards, Naz Reid, Jaylen Clark, Mike Conley)
  105. Q1 3:44
    Stephon Castle turnover (lost ball) (Donte DiVincenzo steals)
  106. Q1 3:52
    Naz Reid misses two point driving floating bank jump shot
  107. Q1 4:03
    Harrison Barnes misses two point jump shot
  108. Q1 4:49
    +2
    Stephon Castle makes two point driving layup
    21-11
  109. Q1 5:21
    Spurs offensive rebound
  110. Q1 5:21
    Stephon Castle misses regular free throw 1 of 2
  111. Q1 5:21
    +1
    Stephon Castle makes regular free throw 2 of 2
    19-9
  112. Q1 5:36
    Jaden McDaniels misses three point stepback jump shot
  113. Q1 5:48
    Spurs lineup change (Harrison Barnes, Stephon Castle, Luke Kornet, Dylan Harper, Keldon Johnson)
  114. Q1 5:49
    De'Aaron Fox misses two point driving layup
  115. Q1 6:01
    +3
    Donte DiVincenzo makes three point jump shot (Rudy Gobert assists)
    18-9
  116. Q1 6:19
    +2
    Jaden McDaniels makes two point driving layup
    16-6
  117. Q1 6:33
    Harrison Barnes misses three point jump shot
  118. Q1 6:35
    Stoppage (Out of bounds)
  119. Q1 6:41
    Spurs lineup change (Harrison Barnes, Stephon Castle, De'Aaron Fox, Luke Kornet, Keldon Johnson)
  120. Q1 6:55
    +2
    Jaden McDaniels makes two point driving floating jump shot (Rudy Gobert assists)
    16-4
  121. Q1 7:06
    Julian Champagnie misses three point jump shot
  122. Q1 7:40
    +3
    Julian Champagnie makes three point jump shot (Stephon Castle assists)
    16-0
  123. Q1 7:50
    Julius Randle misses two point fadeaway jump shot
  124. Q1 8:03
    Spurs lineup change (Harrison Barnes, Stephon Castle, Julian Champagnie, De'Aaron Fox, Luke Kornet)
  125. Q1 8:04
    Anthony Edwards misses two point stepback jump shot
  126. Q1 8:24
    Anthony Edwards shooting foul (Victor Wembanyama draws the foul)
  127. Q1 8:24
    +1
    Victor Wembanyama makes regular free throw 1 of 2
    12-0
  128. Q1 8:39
    Julius Randle misses two point turnaround jump shot
  129. Q1 8:58
    +3
    Harrison Barnes makes three point jump shot (De'Aaron Fox assists)
    11-0
  130. Q1 9:10
    Anthony Edwards misses two point turnaround fadeaway jump shot
  131. Q1 9:25
    De'Aaron Fox misses three point running pullup jump shot
  132. Q1 9:30
    Donte DiVincenzo turnover (bad pass) (Victor Wembanyama steals)
  133. Q1 9:55
    Rudy Gobert misses two point turnaround bank hook shot
  134. Q1 9:56
    Rudy Gobert offensive rebound
  135. Q1 10:26
    Julius Randle turnover (lost ball) (De'Aaron Fox steals)
  136. Q1 10:39
    +2
    De'Aaron Fox makes two point running pullup jump shot
    2-0
  137. Q1 11:00
    Julius Randle defensive rebound
  138. Q1 11:04
    De'Aaron Fox misses two point running pullup jump shot
  139. Q1 11:22
    Victor Wembanyama misses two point driving layup
  140. Q1 11:30
    De'Aaron Fox defensive rebound
  141. Q1 11:47
    Victor Wembanyama misses three point jump shot
  142. Q1 12:00
    Victor Wembanyama vs. Rudy Gobert (Stephon Castle gains possession)
  143. Q1 12:00
    Start of 1st Quarter
Box Score
Spurs
PosPlayerPts
Timberwolves
PosPlayerPts

Spurs vs. Timberwolves: Detailed Breakdown

Matchup Overview

  • Teams: Spurs vs. Timberwolves
  • Date: Sunday, January 11, 2026
  • Time: 7:00 PM ET
  • Venue: Target Center

Current Betting Odds

  • Spread: Timberwolves favored at -2.5
  • Total (Over/Under): 232.5
  • Moneyline Odds: Spurs +120, Timberwolves -134

Dimers' Win Probabilities

  • Spurs: 44%
  • Timberwolves: 56%

Dimers' predictive model, renowned for its accuracy, assesses each team's chances by simulating the outcome of the game 10,000 times. This method provides a precise and unbiased view.

Projected Final Score

Our predicted final score for this NBA matchup is Spurs 114-116 Timberwolves.

This prediction is based on each team's average score following 10,000 game simulations.

Our Prediction: Who Wins?

After extensive simulations, our model gives the Spurs a win probability of 44%, while the Timberwolves have a win probability of 56%. Discover the best spread, over/under, and moneyline odds for the game on this page.

Summary

According to our analysis, the Timberwolves are more likely to beat the Spurs in the NBA game at Target Center on Monday. Discover the best spread, over/under and moneyline odds, picks and probabilities for the game on this page.

Our Spurs vs. Timberwolves predictions, based on sophisticated simulations and current data, guide you in making informed decisions. Remember to bet responsibly and within your financial limits.

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For further insights, explore our expert NBA predictions and the best NBA bets today, while our in-depth analysis includes NBA props, NBA futures, NBA odds, and the latest NBA news.