Get first basket predictions today driven by expert analysis of Wednesday's NBA slate.
Our NBA first basket predictions for November 12, 2025, are based on Wednesday's latest data and matchups.
Our NBA first basket predictions for Wednesday, November 12, 2025, are live—with Jaylen Brown of the Celtics the most likely player to score the first basket per the latest Dimers Pro simulation data.
Wednesday's first basket predictions pull from our full list of NBA first basket odds and player projections, which highlight not only first basket chances, but also projected points, rebounds, assists and more for every player on today's basketball slate.
Who will score the first basket tonight? [November 12, 2025]
According to our data-driven analysis, the most likely NBA player to score the first basket across today's matchups is Jaylen Brown, with a probability of 17.7%.
Player (Team)
FB Probability
Jaylen Brown (Celtics)
17.7%
Jalen Duren (Pistons)
15.5%
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (Thunder)
15.5%
Stephen Curry (Warriors)
15.2%
Nikola Jokic (Nuggets)
15.1%
Jalen Brunson (Knicks)
14.7%
Devin Booker (Suns)
14.4%
Jarrett Allen (Cavaliers)
14.2%
Shaedon Sharpe (Trail Blazers)
13.8%
Victor Wembanyama (Spurs)
13.8%
Following Brown closely are Jalen Duren at 15.5% and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander at 15.5%.
Stephen Curry and Nikola Jokic are among those in the top 10, with the full list of first basket projections for Wednesday available via today’s NBA player projections.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is among the top contenders in the NBA to score the first basket on Wednesday, November 12, 2025.
Best NBA first basket picks [11/12/2025]
After simulating the outcome of today's NBA slate thousands of times, our predictive model has found the best NBA first basket betting pick for Wednesday.
Our model has identified the best NBA first basket bet for Wednesday's NBA slate in the game between the Grizzlies and Celtics. The bet is on Jaylen Brown (BOS) at odds of +550 with FanDuel Sportsbook, with an edge of 2.3% according to our analysis.
Our model not only features Brown for him 2.3% betting edge but also ranks him as the number one most likely first basket scorer for today, as seen in the above list.
For November 12, 2025, our NBA first basket predictions highlight standout players such as Jaylen Brown, Jalen Duren and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander—all of whom are among the top projected chances to open the scoring in today’s games. But when it comes to +EV betting, it’s Jaylen Brown who emerges as the top pick, showing a calculated 2.3% edge at +550 odds.
These projections are the result of 10,000 simulations, giving you a reliable base for smarter prop betting. Always wager with care—help is available at 1-800-GAMBLER if you or someone close to you needs support.
Damien Souness leverages over 15 years of experience to create engaging content focused on sports, online gaming and wagering. As Chief Innovation Officer at Cipher Sports Technology Group, the parent company of Dimers, he offers strategic insights and innovative solutions to enhance the player experience.
