Get first basket predictions today backed by expert analysis of Tuesday's NBA slate.
Our NBA first basket predictions for November 11, 2025, are based on Tuesday's latest data and matchups.
Our NBA first basket predictions for Tuesday, November 11, 2025, have landed—with Jaylen Brown of the Celtics the most likely player to score the first basket according to the latest Dimers Pro simulation data.
Tuesday's first basket predictions pull from our full list of NBA first basket odds and player projections, which highlight not only first basket probabilities, but also projected points, rebounds, assists and more for every player on today's basketball slate.
Who will score the first basket tonight? [November 11, 2025]
According to our data-driven analysis, the most likely NBA player to score the first basket across today's matchups is Jaylen Brown, with a probability of 18.0%.
Player (Team)
FB Probability
Jaylen Brown (Celtics)
18.0%
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (Thunder)
16.0%
Lauri Markkanen (Jazz)
15.6%
Stephen Curry (Warriors)
14.8%
Pascal Siakam (Pacers)
14.7%
Tyrese Maxey (76ers)
14.4%
Jalen Brunson (Knicks)
14.3%
Nikola Jokic (Nuggets)
13.8%
Zach LaVine (Kings)
12.4%
Ja Morant (Grizzlies)
12.4%
Following Brown closely are Shai Gilgeous-Alexander at 16.0% and Lauri Markkanen at 15.6%.
Stephen Curry and Pascal Siakam are among those in the top 10, with the full list of first basket projections for Tuesday available via today’s NBA player projections.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is among the top contenders in the NBA to score the first basket on Tuesday, November 11, 2025.
Best NBA first basket picks [11/11/2025]
After simulating the outcome of today's NBA slate thousands of times, our predictive model has discovered the best NBA first basket bet for you to make on Tuesday.
Our model has identified the best NBA first basket bet for today's NBA slate in the game between the Warriors and Thunder. The bet is on Stephen Curry (GSW) at odds of +850 with FanDuel Sportsbook, with an edge of 4.2% according to our analysis.
Not only does Curry present an edge according to our model, but he is also among our top five most likely first basket scorers for today, as noted in the list above.
For November 11, 2025, our NBA first basket predictions showcase standout players like Jaylen Brown, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Lauri Markkanen—all of whom are among the top projected chances to open the scoring in today’s games. But when it comes to betting value, it’s Stephen Curry who emerges as the top pick, showing a calculated 4.2% edge at +850 odds.
These projections are built from 10,000 simulations, giving you a reliable basis for smarter prop betting. Always wager with care—help is available at 1-800-GAMBLER if you or someone close to you needs support.
Nick Slade, with nearly two decades of experience, is the Chief Content Officer at Cipher Sports Technology Group, overseeing content for Dimers. He specializes in soccer, NBA, and NHL betting, leveraging predictive analytics and machine learning to provide accurate betting insights.
