Get first basket predictions today driven by expert analysis of Sunday's NBA slate.
Our NBA first basket predictions for November 9, 2025, are based on Sunday's latest data and matchups.
Our NBA first basket predictions for Sunday, November 9, 2025, have landed—with Jaylen Brown of the Celtics the most likely player to score the first basket per the latest Dimers Pro simulation data.
Sunday's first basket predictions pull from our full list of NBA first basket odds and player projections, which highlight not only first basket chances, but also projected points, rebounds, assists and more for every player on today's basketball slate.
Who will score the first basket tonight? [November 9, 2025]
According to our data-driven analysis, the most likely NBA player to score the first basket across today's games is Jaylen Brown, with a probability of 17.1%.
Player (Team)
FB Probability
Jaylen Brown (Celtics)
17.1%
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (Thunder)
16.1%
Tyrese Maxey (76ers)
15.8%
Jalen Brunson (Knicks)
15.5%
Ja Morant (Grizzlies)
13.7%
Anthony Edwards (Timberwolves)
13.2%
Cade Cunningham (Pistons)
13.1%
Julius Randle (Timberwolves)
13.0%
Jalen Duren (Pistons)
12.8%
Nic Claxton (Nets)
12.6%
Following Brown closely are Shai Gilgeous-Alexander at 16.1% and Tyrese Maxey at 15.8%.
Jalen Brunson and Ja Morant are among those in the top 10, with the full list of first basket projections for Sunday available via today’s NBA player projections.
Jaylen Brown is among the top contenders in the NBA to score the first basket on Sunday, November 9, 2025.
Best NBA first basket picks [11/9/2025]
Having simulated the result of today's NBA matchups 10,000 times each, our predictive model has generated the best NBA first basket betting pick for Sunday.
Our model has identified the best NBA first basket bet for today's NBA slate in the game between the Timberwolves and Kings. The bet is on DeMar DeRozan (SAC) at odds of +1200 with FanDuel Sportsbook, with an edge of 3.6% according to our analysis.
Although DeRozan doesn't feature in our model's top 10 most likely first basket scorers for Sunday's NBA slate, he does present the best betting opportunity for those searching for an edge on the market.
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Conclusion
For November 9, 2025, our NBA first basket predictions spotlight big-name players including Jaylen Brown, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Tyrese Maxey—all of whom are among the top projected chances to open the scoring in today’s games. But when it comes to +EV betting, it’s DeMar DeRozan who emerges as the top pick, offering a calculated 3.6% edge at +1200 odds.
These projections are the result of 10,000 game simulations, giving you a reliable foundation for smarter prop betting. Always wager with care—help is available at 1-800-GAMBLER if you or someone close to you needs support.
Jason Bevilacqua, an expert in MLB, NHL, NBA, MLS, and NFL, delivers game previews, best bets, and props. Since 2020, as Head of Social and Community at Dimers, he has contributed insightful articles utilizing data-driven models and simulations.
