Get first basket predictions today backed by expert analysis of Saturday's NBA slate.
Our NBA first basket predictions for November 22, 2025, are based on Saturday's latest data and matchups.
Our NBA first basket predictions for Saturday, November 22, 2025, are live—with Nikola Jokic of the Nuggets the most likely player to score the first basket according to the latest Dimers Pro simulation data.
Saturday's first basket predictions come straight from our NBA first basket odds and player projections, which highlight not only first basket probabilities, but also projected points, rebounds, assists and more for every player on today's basketball slate.
Who will score the first basket tonight? [November 22, 2025]
According to our data-driven analysis, the most likely NBA player to score the first basket across today's matchups is Nikola Jokic, with a probability of 20.3%.
Player (Team)
FB Probability
Nikola Jokic (Nuggets)
20.3%
Jalen Brunson (Knicks)
15.7%
Alex Sarr (Wizards)
13.6%
Cade Cunningham (Pistons)
13.5%
Santi Aldama (Grizzlies)
13.5%
Ryan Rollins (Bucks)
13.3%
Jeremiah Fears (Pelicans)
12.7%
Jalen Duren (Pistons)
12.6%
Cooper Flagg (Mavericks)
12.5%
Karl-Anthony Towns (Knicks)
12.1%
Following Jokic closely are Jalen Brunson at 15.7% and Alex Sarr at 13.6%.
Cade Cunningham and Santi Aldama also feature, with the full list of first basket projections for Saturday available via today’s NBA player projections.
Jalen Brunson is one of the most likely NBA players to score the first basket on Saturday, November 22, 2025.
Best NBA first basket picks [11/22/2025]
Having simulated the result of today's NBA matchups thousands of times each, our leading predictive analytics model has generated the best NBA first basket bet for you to make on Saturday.
Our model has identified the best NBA first basket bet for Saturday's NBA slate in the game between the Kings and Nuggets. The bet is on Nikola Jokic (DEN) at odds of +550 with FanDuel Sportsbook, with an edge of 4.9% according to our analysis.
Our model not only showcases Jokic for him 4.9% betting edge but also ranks him as the number one most likely first basket scorer for today, as seen in the preceding list.
For November 22, 2025, our NBA first basket predictions feature standout players including Nikola Jokic, Jalen Brunson and Alex Sarr—all of whom are among the top projected chances to open the scoring in today’s games. But when it comes to betting value, it’s Nikola Jokic who emerges as the top pick, showing a calculated 4.9% edge at +550 odds.
These projections are built from 10,000 game simulations, giving you a reliable starting point for smarter prop betting. Always wager with care—help is available at 1-800-GAMBLER if you or someone close to you needs support.
Nick Slade, with nearly two decades of experience, is the Chief Content Officer at Cipher Sports Technology Group, overseeing content for Dimers. He specializes in soccer, NBA, and NHL betting, leveraging predictive analytics and machine learning to provide accurate betting insights.
