Get first basket predictions today driven by expert analysis of Saturday's NBA slate.
Our NBA first basket predictions for October 25, 2025, are based on Saturday's latest data and matchups.
Our NBA first basket predictions for Saturday, October 25, 2025, have landed—with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander of the Thunder the most likely player to score the first basket based on the latest Dimers Pro simulation data.
Saturday's first basket predictions come from our NBA first basket odds and player projections, which highlight not only first basket probabilities, but also projected points, rebounds, assists and more for every player on today's basketball slate.
Who will score the first basket tonight? [October 25, 2025]
According to our data-driven analysis, the most likely NBA player to score the first basket across today's matchups is Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, with a probability of 19.2%.
Player (Team)
FB Probability
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (Thunder)
19.2%
Ja Morant (Grizzlies)
17.0%
Devin Booker (Suns)
15.5%
Nikola Vucevic (Bulls)
14.6%
Pascal Siakam (Pacers)
14.2%
LaMelo Ball (Hornets)
13.7%
Joel Embiid (76ers)
13.3%
Franz Wagner (Magic)
13.0%
Nikola Jokic (Nuggets)
12.8%
Trae Young (Hawks)
12.6%
Following Gilgeous-Alexander closely are Ja Morant at 17.0% and Devin Booker at 15.5%.
Nikola Vucevic and Pascal Siakam are among those in the top 10, with the full list of first basket projections for Saturday available via today’s NBA player projections.
Ja Morant is one of the most likely NBA players to score the first basket on Saturday, October 25, 2025.
Best NBA first basket picks [10/25/2025]
After simulating the outcome of today's NBA slate thousands of times, our independent predictive analytics model has discovered the best NBA first basket bet for you to make on Saturday.
Our model has identified the best NBA first basket bet for Saturday's NBA slate in the game between the Bulls and Magic. The bet is on Tre Jones (CHI) at odds of +1400 with FanDuel Sportsbook, with an edge of 3.3% according to our analysis.
Although Jones doesn't feature in our model's top 10 most likely first basket scorers for Saturday's NBA slate, he does present the best betting opportunity for those looking to gain an edge on the market.
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Conclusion
For October 25, 2025, our NBA first basket predictions feature star players such as Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Ja Morant and Devin Booker—all of whom are among the top projected chances to open the scoring in today’s games. But when it comes to +EV betting, it’s Tre Jones who emerges as the top pick, producing a calculated 3.3% edge at +1400 odds.
These projections are the result of 10,000 simulations, giving you a reliable basis for smarter prop betting. Always wager with care—help is available at 1-800-GAMBLER if you or someone close to you needs support.
Nick Slade, with nearly two decades of experience, is the Chief Content Officer at Cipher Sports Technology Group, overseeing content for Dimers. He specializes in soccer, NBA, and NHL betting, leveraging predictive analytics and machine learning to provide accurate betting insights.
