Get first basket predictions today guided by expert analysis of Monday's NBA slate.
Our NBA first basket predictions for November 17, 2025, are based on Monday's latest data and matchups.
Our NBA first basket predictions for Monday, November 17, 2025, have landed—with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander of the Thunder the most likely player to score the first basket per the latest Dimers Pro simulation data.
Monday's first basket predictions come from our NBA first basket odds and player projections, which highlight not only first basket probabilities, but also projected points, rebounds, assists and more for every player on today's basketball slate.
Who will score the first basket tonight? [November 17, 2025]
According to our data-driven analysis, the most likely NBA player to score the first basket in any of today's games is Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, with a probability of 17.4%.
Player (Team)
FB Probability
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (Thunder)
17.4%
Giannis Antetokounmpo (Bucks)
17.1%
Nikola Jokic (Nuggets)
16.3%
Tyrese Maxey (76ers)
16.1%
Pascal Siakam (Pacers)
14.4%
LaMelo Ball (Hornets)
14.0%
Karl-Anthony Towns (Knicks)
13.7%
Norman Powell (Heat)
13.5%
Ivica Zubac (Clippers)
13.3%
Brandon Williams (Mavericks)
13.2%
Donovan Mitchell (Cavaliers)
13.1%
Anthony Edwards (Timberwolves)
13.1%
James Harden (Clippers)
13.0%
Julius Randle (Timberwolves)
12.2%
Cooper Flagg (Mavericks)
12.1%
Miles Bridges (Hornets)
11.9%
Andrew Wiggins (Heat)
11.9%
Josh Giddey (Bulls)
11.7%
Chet Holmgren (Thunder)
11.7%
Jalen Duren (Pistons)
11.4%
John Collins (Clippers)
11.4%
Isaiah Hartenstein (Thunder)
11.2%
Kevin Huerter (Bulls)
11.0%
Jaden McDaniels (Timberwolves)
11.0%
Jarrett Allen (Cavaliers)
11.0%
Jamal Murray (Nuggets)
10.9%
Jeremiah Fears (Pelicans)
10.9%
Scottie Barnes (Raptors)
10.8%
P.J. Washington (Mavericks)
10.8%
Mikal Bridges (Knicks)
10.8%
RJ Barrett (Raptors)
10.7%
Brandon Ingram (Raptors)
10.6%
Ryan Rollins (Bucks)
10.5%
Nikola Vucevic (Bulls)
10.3%
Kon Knueppel (Hornets)
10.2%
Matas Buzelis (Bulls)
10.1%
Following Gilgeous-Alexander closely are Giannis Antetokounmpo at 17.1% and Nikola Jokic at 16.3%.
Tyrese Maxey and Pascal Siakam also feature, with the full list of first basket projections for Monday available via today’s NBA player projections.
Nikola Jokic is among the top contenders in the NBA to score the first basket on Monday, November 17, 2025.
Best NBA first basket picks [11/17/2025]
Having simulated the outcome of today's NBA slate thousands of times, our trusted predictive analytics model has discovered the best NBA first basket betting pick for Monday.
Our model has identified the best NBA first basket bet for Monday's NBA slate in the game between the Mavericks and Timberwolves. The bet is on Brandon Williams (DAL) at odds of +1200 with FanDuel Sportsbook, with an edge of 5.5% according to our analysis.
Our model not only features Williams for him 5.5% betting edge but also ranks him among the top 10 most likely first basket scorers for today, as seen in the preceding list.
For November 17, 2025, our NBA first basket predictions showcase star players including Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Giannis Antetokounmpo and Nikola Jokic—all of whom are among the top projected chances to open the scoring in today’s games. But when it comes to betting value, it’s Brandon Williams who emerges as the top play, offering a calculated 5.5% edge at +1200 odds.
These projections are built from 10,000 game simulations, giving you a reliable basis for smarter prop betting. Always wager with care—help is available at 1-800-GAMBLER if you or someone close to you needs support.
Damien Souness leverages over 15 years of experience to create engaging content focused on sports, online gaming and wagering. As Chief Innovation Officer at Cipher Sports Technology Group, the parent company of Dimers, he offers strategic insights and innovative solutions to enhance the player experience.
