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NBA Props: One thing to know for every game on Wednesday, March 11
Updated: | First published:
Written by Dave Garofolo, Content Producer
Reviewed by Nick Slade
We use the Dimers Pro NBA projections to find the best betting angle in each game on Wednesday, March 11.
There are six games on the NBA schedule this Wednesday, March 11, and we are looking at the best NBA player prop or bet to make in each, thanks to some data-backed insights from the Dimers Pro suite of NBA betting tools.
From our best bets and props to the Dimers Pro NBA Projections Hub and our prop trends, all exclusive to Dimers Pros, we have a loaded arsenal of features to help you cut through the noise and find the most profitable ways to bet on every single NBA game.
After debuting last season, the NBA Player Projections Hub quickly became one of the best ways to uncover hidden player prop value, providing daily projections for every NBA player, including points, rebounds, assists, blocks, and steals, and we'll be using this tool heavily today.
The expansive hub can identify players on the brink of significant statistical performances, notably those who are within range of double digits in multiple categories as “Double-Double Threats” or “Triple-Double Threats” as well as find players who are projected not just to hit their regular prop line, but go over even further and cash some plus-money alternate lines or ladder props.
To narrow down today's opportunities, we've identified one notable stat, projection or bet in each of today's six games.
1. Paolo Banchero's assist upside
Game: Cavaliers vs. Magic
Tip: 7:30 PM ET
In the first game of the night between these Eastern Conference teams, our model signals a strong betting opportunity with Paolo Banchero of the Magic, specifically around his assists prop, which is set at o/u 4.5 on FanDuel.
Three separate Dimers datapoints highlight this bet: a 55.5% probability of Banchero going over 4.5 assists in our NBA Props page, a positive NBA trend showing he's gone over 4.5 assists in 7 of his L10 games, and our NBA Projections Hub predicting Banchero for 5.5 assists vs. Cleveland.
Now, context is important - in several of those games he's gone over, the Magic were without Jalen Suggs, their assists leader this season, leading Banchero at 5.3 assists per game to 5.0.
However, Suggs is active tonight, and our projections still show them at nearly identical values, with Suggs at 5.8 assists.
Banchero's over 4.5 assists has very favorable odds of +108, and it's worth noting that in all of those games he went over, he recorded 6+ assists, which is priced at +225 for an alternate line not far off our projections.
Paolo Banchero's assist value the Dimers NBA Props page.
2. Crashing boards vs. New Orleans
Game: Raptors vs. Pelicans
Tip: 8:30 PM ET
Over their past 15 games, the New Orleans Pelicans rank 26th and 27th vs. opposing centers and forwards for grabbing rebounds, allowing the 8th-most all season regardless of position.
In this game, the top three projected rebounders are all Raptors: Jakob Poeltl (GTD) at 8.8 REB, Scottie Barnes at 7.7 and RJ Barrett at 6.3.
Barnes is the team leader at 7.9 rebounds per game, but is trending well below that lately, clearing 7 boards just once since the end of the All-Star Break.
This could be the game he needs to get right as the Pelicans have given up six double-digit rebounding performances since the league returned from break, and his 8+ rebounds, just over our average projection of 7.7 gets +134 odds on FanDuel.
3. Brunson's return to form
Game: Knicks vs. Jazz
Tip: 9:00 PM ET
Jalen Brunson is a top 10 scorer in the NBA, but hasn't been flirting with his usual ceiling since returning from the All-Star Break.
Our NBA Trends show that Brunson has gone under 27.5 points in 9 of his L10 games, with Monday's 28-point game vs. the Clippers his first game over that line since his first game after the break.
Fortunately for him and the Knicks, the Dimers model predicts that was the beginning of a trend back to his typical upside, projecting him for 28.4 points, the second most of the entire night alongside Nikola Jokic, and notably over his line of 26.5.
The Jazz have been better lately than their season-long numbers, but this is the same matchup we targeted on Saturday for Giannis's best game since his return which paid off.
Utah ahs allowed four 30-point and two 40point performances over their past 10 games and few of their opponents have the scoring potential that Brunson possesses.
4. Nikola Jokic's triple double
Game: Rockets vs. Nuggets
Tip: 8:00 PM ET
This is the second time this week that we've highlighted Nikola Jokic as a triple double threat.
As the league's leader with 24 of them this season, it's not uncommon for him to pace the projections in both REB and AST, as well as be the favorite to record a triple double on the sportsbooks any given night.
But what stands out tonight, and did the other night when we shared his triple double projection on our socials, is the plus-money odds, and our model's projection comfortably over the required lines.
"Every mountain top is within reach if you just keep climbing"
— Dimers (@DimersCom) March 11, 2026
We're onto Day 4 of our 10K challenge and we're going with Nikola Jokic tonight to record a triple double at +118 with DraftKings.
Dimers model projects the Joker for 28/12/11.
Best of luck if riding 🍀 https://t.co/VWOPdKIUnh pic.twitter.com/o0qoT6PDHp
At 28.4 points, 11.9 rebounds and 11.4 assists, our model projects the Joker for nearly two full rebounds and a 1.4 assists over the double-digit marks needed, yet he sits at +122 odds, implying under a 50% probability.
His lowest line, assists, is set at 9.5 on the books, showing over a 50% probability from our model that he clears the number for his second triple double vs. Houston this season.
5. Raining threes vs. the Kings
Game: Hornets vs. Kings
Tip: 10:00 PM ET
The Sacramento Kings have allowed the highest 3PT% in the NBA over their last 15 games, the only team allowing opponents to shoot at least 40% from beyond the arc.
They host the Hornets tonight and if you sort today's NBA projection on Dimers by three-pointers, the top three projected players are all on Charlotte: LaMelo Ball and Kon Knueppel at 3.5 followed by Brandon Miller at 3.3.
Both Knueppel and Ball are tied for the third-most threes made per game this season, with Knueppel getting the edge in accuracy at 43.8% to Ball's 36.2%
Knueppel ranks second in the league in 3PT% for players who average at least 5 attempts per game, so while he typically has lower volume, he's the better shooter out of all three.
6. Kawhi Leonard's 30-point projection
Game: Timberwolves vs. Clippers
Tip: 10:30 PM ET
The top-projected scorer on tonight's slate is the Clippers' Kawhi Leonard at 30.2 points when L.A. hosts the Timberwolves in the nightcap.
Leonard's line is set at 27.5, pointing to him hitting his over and then a little extra, and he hit 28+ point in four straight games. Just before the All-Star Break, he put up 41 vs. this Timberwolves team that's on the second night of a back-to-back, where they just allowed a pair of 31-point games to Luka Doncic and Austin Reaves on Tuesday night.
Leonard projects for over 27.5 points, at 30+ points (+124 on DraftKings) and as the game's top scorer (+115 on DraftKings), three ways to use the same Dimers projection.
Dimers' NBA betting resources for the 2025-26 season
- NBA Game Predictions: Our data-backed previews for every NBA matchup, every day.
- NBA Best Bets: Our Top Picks for every game.
- NBA Finals Odds: Who will win the championship?
- Best NBA Props: Player edges and projections from our predictive analytics model
- NBA Betting News: The latest promos, storylines and more around the league
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To give you the most accurate and helpful information, this article has been reviewed and edited by Nick Slade through our fact-checking process.
Dave Garofolo uses sophisticated AI-driven analytics to make predictions and evaluate player performances in the NBA, MLB, NFL, NHL, NCAAM, and PGA TOUR tournaments, crafting insightful game and prop previews.
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