Rockets vs. Nuggets Prediction, Picks and Odds
Our detailed prediction and analysis for the Rockets vs. Nuggets NBA game on March 11, 2026 is featured below. Drawing from 10,000 game simulations, we provide expert picks, betting odds, and insights.
FINAL
NBA
FINAL
NBA
Rockets
93
129
Ball Arena
Nuggets
Ball Arena
| TEAM | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Rockets | 20 | 27 | 22 | 24 | 93 |
Nuggets | 24 | 29 | 40 | 36 | 129 |
Live Probabilities
Spread
Over / Under
Moneyline
- Rockets
- Nuggets
Win Probability
| TEAM | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Rockets | 20 | 27 | 22 | 24 | 93 |
Nuggets | 24 | 29 | 40 | 36 | 129 |
Q4 00:00 Rockets misses three point jump shot
Q4 00:28 Rockets makes three point jump shot
Q4 00:48 Josh Okogie misses two point tip layup
Q4 00:48 Josh Okogie misses two point tip layup
Q4 00:51 Rockets misses three point jump shot
Q4 1:03 Nuggets makes three point jump shot
Q4 1:13 Rockets makes two point jump shot
Q4 1:34 Rockets misses two point jump shot
Q4 1:36 Rockets misses two point jump shot
Q4 1:43 Nuggets misses two point jump shot
Play by Play
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
ALL
- Rockets misses three point jump shot
- Rockets offensive rebound
- End of 4th Quarter.
- Nuggets turnover
- +3Rockets makes three point jump shot93-129
- Rockets personal foul
- +1David Roddy makes regular free throw 1 of 290-128
- +1David Roddy makes regular free throw 2 of 290-129
- David Roddy defensive rebound
- David Roddy defensive rebound
- Josh Okogie misses two point tip layup
- Josh Okogie misses two point tip layup
- Rockets offensive rebound
- Nuggets personal foul
- +1Isaiah Crawford makes regular free throw 1 of 290-127
- Isaiah Crawford misses regular free throw 2 of 2
- Rockets misses three point jump shot
- +3Nuggets makes three point jump shot89-127
- +2Rockets makes two point jump shot89-124
- Rockets personal foul
- Zeke Nnaji misses regular free throw 1 of 2
- Nuggets offensive rebound
- +1Zeke Nnaji makes regular free throw 2 of 287-124
- Rockets turnover
- Clint Capela offensive rebound
- Clint Capela offensive rebound
- Rockets misses two point jump shot
- Rockets misses two point jump shot
- Isaiah Crawford defensive rebound
- Nuggets misses two point jump shot
- +2Rockets makes two point jump shot87-123
- Josh Okogie offensive rebound
- Rockets misses three point jump shot
- +3Nuggets makes three point jump shot85-123
- Rockets misses three point jump shot
- Nuggets defensive rebound
- Stoppage (Out of bounds)
- Rockets offensive rebound
- Nuggets personal foul
- Nuggets 60 second timeout
- Rockets misses three point jump shot
- Clint Capela defensive rebound
- Nuggets misses three point jump shot
- David Roddy offensive rebound
- Nuggets misses two point jump shot
- Zeke Nnaji defensive rebound
- Rockets misses three point jump shot
- Josh Okogie defensive rebound
- Nuggets misses three point jump shot
- Julian Strawther defensive rebound
- Rockets misses two point jump shot
- Rockets defensive rebound
- Stoppage (Out of bounds)
- Nuggets misses three point jump shot
- David Roddy defensive rebound
- Rockets misses three point jump shot
- Clint Capela offensive rebound
- Clint Capela misses two point jump shot
- Clint Capela offensive rebound
- Rockets misses two point jump shot
- Rockets offensive rebound
- Stoppage (Out of bounds)
- Rockets misses two point jump shot
- Aaron Holiday offensive rebound
- Rockets misses two point jump shot
- Rockets offensive rebound
- Stoppage (Out of bounds)
- Rockets misses two point jump shot
- Jeff Green defensive rebound
- Nuggets misses three point jump shot
- +2Rockets makes two point jump shot85-120
- Nuggets personal foul
- Zeke Nnaji turnover (offensive foul)
- Rockets turnover
- +3Nuggets makes three point jump shot83-120
- David Roddy defensive rebound
- Rockets misses three point jump shot
- Isaiah Crawford defensive rebound
- +2Nuggets makes two point jump shot83-117
- Rockets personal foul
- Nuggets lineup change (Zeke Nnaji, Julian Strawther, Tyus Jones, David Roddy, Jalen Pickett)
- Tyus Jones misses regular free throw 1 of 1
- Jonas Valanciunas defensive rebound
- Rockets misses two point jump shot
- +2Nuggets makes two point jump shot83-115
- +3Rockets makes three point jump shot83-113
- +2Nuggets makes two point jump shot80-113
- +2Rockets makes two point jump shot80-111
- Rockets 60 second timeout
- Rockets lineup change (Aaron Holiday, Isaiah Crawford, Clint Capela, Jeff Green, Josh Okogie)
- Nuggets lineup change (Jonas Valanciunas, Bruce Brown, Julian Strawther, Tyus Jones, Spencer Jones)
- +3Nuggets makes three point jump shot78-111
- Spencer Jones defensive rebound
- Rockets misses three point jump shot
- Jonas Valanciunas offensive rebound
- +2Nuggets makes two point jump shot78-108
- Nuggets misses three point jump shot
- Bruce Brown defensive rebound
- Rockets misses three point jump shot
- Jonas Valanciunas offensive rebound
- +2Nuggets makes two point jump shot78-106
- Nuggets misses two point jump shot
- Nuggets personal foul
- +1Isaiah Crawford makes regular free throw 1 of 277-104
- +1Isaiah Crawford makes regular free throw 2 of 278-104
- +3Nuggets makes three point jump shot76-104
- +2Rockets makes two point jump shot76-101
- Clint Capela offensive rebound
- Rockets misses two point jump shot
- +2Nuggets makes two point jump shot74-101
- Nuggets personal foul
- Clint Capela misses regular free throw 1 of 2
- Rockets offensive rebound
- +1Clint Capela makes regular free throw 2 of 274-99
- +3Nuggets makes three point jump shot73-99
- +2Rockets makes two point jump shot73-96
- Nuggets turnover
- +2Rockets makes two point jump shot71-96
- +3Nuggets makes three point jump shot69-96
- Nuggets defensive rebound
- Stoppage (Out of bounds)
- Nuggets personal foul
- Josh Okogie misses regular free throw 1 of 2
- Rockets offensive rebound
- Josh Okogie misses regular free throw 2 of 2
- Nuggets turnover
- Jonas Valanciunas defensive rebound
- Rockets misses two point jump shot
- Rockets misses three point jump shot
- Rockets offensive rebound
- End of 3rd Quarter.
- Rockets lineup change (Aaron Holiday, Isaiah Crawford, Clint Capela, Reed Sheppard, Josh Okogie)
- Nuggets lineup change (Jonas Valanciunas, Jamal Murray, Bruce Brown, Tim Hardaway Jr., Spencer Jones)
- +3Nuggets makes three point jump shot69-93
- Tim Hardaway Jr. defensive rebound
- Rockets misses three point jump shot
- +2Nuggets makes two point jump shot69-90
- Rockets turnover
- Rockets personal foul
- Nikola Jokic misses regular free throw 1 of 2
- Nuggets offensive rebound
- +1Nikola Jokic makes regular free throw 2 of 269-88
- Rockets personal foul
- Cameron Johnson personal foul (Double)
- Rockets turnover
- Jabari Smith Jr. defensive rebound
- Nuggets misses two point jump shot
- Nikola Jokic offensive rebound
- Nuggets misses two point jump shot
- Stoppage (Out of bounds)
- Amen Thompson offensive rebound
- +2Rockets makes two point jump shot69-87
- Rockets misses two point jump shot
- Nuggets misses two point jump shot
- Rockets defensive rebound
- Stoppage (Out of bounds)
- Nikola Jokic defensive rebound
- Rockets misses two point jump shot
- +2Nuggets makes two point jump shot67-87
- +2Rockets makes two point jump shot67-85
- Spencer Jones defensive rebound
- Rockets personal foul
- Nuggets offensive rebound
- Bruce Brown misses regular free throw 1 of 2
- +1Bruce Brown makes regular free throw 2 of 265-85
- Rockets misses two point jump shot
- Rockets misses two point jump shot
- Rockets offensive rebound
- Nuggets personal foul
- Nuggets personal foul
- Nuggets lineup change (Nikola Jokic, Bruce Brown, Tim Hardaway Jr., Cameron Johnson, Spencer Jones)
- Rockets personal foul
- +1Jamal Murray makes regular free throw 1 of 265-83
- +1Jamal Murray makes regular free throw 2 of 265-84
- Nuggets lineup change (Nikola Jokic, Jamal Murray, Tim Hardaway Jr., Cameron Johnson, Spencer Jones)
- +2Rockets makes two point jump shot65-82
- Reed Sheppard defensive rebound
- Nuggets misses two point jump shot
- Christian Braun defensive rebound
- Rockets misses three point jump shot
- Rockets 60 second timeout
- Rockets lineup change (Aaron Holiday, Clint Capela, Reed Sheppard, Amen Thompson, Jabari Smith Jr.)
- Nuggets lineup change (Nikola Jokic, Jamal Murray, Christian Braun, Cameron Johnson, Spencer Jones)
- +3Nuggets makes three point jump shot63-82
- Nikola Jokic defensive rebound
- Rockets misses three point jump shot
- +3Nuggets makes three point jump shot63-79
- Nikola Jokic offensive rebound
- Nuggets misses two point jump shot
- +2Rockets makes two point jump shot63-76
- +2Nuggets makes two point jump shot61-76
- Rockets turnover
- Josh Okogie personal foul
- +1Cameron Johnson makes regular free throw 1 of 261-73
- +1Cameron Johnson makes regular free throw 2 of 261-74
- Rockets turnover
- Rockets personal foul
- +1Jamal Murray makes regular free throw 1 of 261-71
- Rockets lineup change (Tari Eason, Reed Sheppard, Alperen Sengun, Kevin Durant, Josh Okogie)
- +1Jamal Murray makes regular free throw 2 of 261-72
- +2Rockets makes two point jump shot61-70
- +2Nuggets makes two point jump shot59-69
- Rockets personal foul
- +1Nikola Jokic makes regular free throw 1 of 159-70
- +2Rockets makes two point jump shot59-67
- Jabari Smith Jr. defensive rebound
- Nuggets misses two point jump shot
- +2Rockets makes two point jump shot57-67
- +3Nuggets makes three point jump shot55-67
- Nikola Jokic offensive rebound
- Nuggets misses two point jump shot
- Christian Braun defensive rebound
- Rockets misses three point jump shot
- +2Nuggets makes two point jump shot55-64
- Rockets 60 second timeout
- Rockets lineup change (Reed Sheppard, Alperen Sengun, Amen Thompson, Jabari Smith Jr., Kevin Durant)
- Christian Braun defensive rebound
- Rockets misses three point jump shot
- +2Nuggets makes two point jump shot55-62
- Rockets turnover
- Amen Thompson misses two point running layup
- Nuggets defensive rebound
- Stoppage (Out of bounds)
- Amen Thompson defensive rebound
- Nuggets misses three point jump shot
- Rockets personal foul
- +2Rockets makes two point jump shot55-60
- +3Nuggets makes three point jump shot (Nikola Jokic assists)53-60
- Aaron Gordon defensive rebound
- Rockets misses two point jump shot
- Rockets misses two point jump shot
- Jabari Smith Jr. defensive rebound
- Nuggets misses two point jump shot
- Stoppage (Out of bounds)
- +2Rockets makes two point jump shot53-57
- Alperen Sengun offensive rebound
- Rockets misses three point jump shot
- Alperen Sengun defensive rebound
- Nuggets misses two point jump shot
- +2Rockets makes two point jump shot51-57
- Tari Eason defensive rebound
- Nuggets misses two point jump shot
- Stoppage (Out of bounds)
- +2Rockets makes two point jump shot49-57
- Rockets personal foul
- +1Nikola Jokic makes regular free throw 1 of 247-56
- +1Nikola Jokic makes regular free throw 2 of 247-57
- Aaron Gordon defensive rebound
- Rockets misses three point jump shot
- +2Nuggets makes two point jump shot47-55
- Rockets personal foul
- Rockets misses three point jump shot
- Rockets offensive rebound
- End of 1st Half.
- Rockets lineup change (Tari Eason, Alperen Sengun, Amen Thompson, Jabari Smith Jr., Kevin Durant)
- Nuggets lineup change (Aaron Gordon, Nikola Jokic, Jamal Murray, Christian Braun, Cameron Johnson)
- +3Nuggets makes three point jump shot47-53
- +2Rockets makes two point jump shot47-50
- Nuggets personal foul
- Rockets lineup change (Tari Eason, Reed Sheppard, Alperen Sengun, Amen Thompson, Kevin Durant)
- Kevin Durant defensive rebound
- Nuggets misses two point jump shot
- Stoppage (Equipment malfunction)
- Rockets personal foul
- Rockets lineup change (Tari Eason, Clint Capela, Reed Sheppard, Amen Thompson, Kevin Durant)
- +2Rockets makes two point jump shot45-50
- Jabari Smith Jr. offensive rebound
- Rockets misses three point jump shot
- +2Nuggets makes two point jump shot43-50
- Rockets turnover
- Clint Capela offensive rebound
- Rockets misses two point jump shot
- +2Nuggets makes two point jump shot43-48
- Rockets turnover
- +2Nuggets makes two point jump shot43-46
- Rockets 60 second timeout
- Nuggets lineup change (Aaron Gordon, Nikola Jokic, Jamal Murray, Christian Braun, Tim Hardaway Jr.)
- Rockets lineup change (Clint Capela, Reed Sheppard, Amen Thompson, Jabari Smith Jr., Kevin Durant)
- Tim Hardaway Jr. defensive rebound
- Rockets misses three point jump shot
- +2Nuggets makes two point jump shot43-44
- Rockets turnover
- Kevin Durant defensive rebound
- Nuggets misses three point jump shot
- +2Rockets makes two point jump shot43-42
- Nuggets misses two point jump shot
- Nikola Jokic offensive rebound
- Nuggets misses two point jump shot
- Rockets defensive rebound
- Stoppage (Out of bounds)
- +2Rockets makes two point jump shot41-42
- Nuggets personal foul
- Nikola Jokic turnover (offensive foul)
- Nuggets lineup change (Aaron Gordon, Nikola Jokic, Christian Braun, Tim Hardaway Jr., Cameron Johnson)
- Rockets turnover
- Rockets lineup change (Tari Eason, Alperen Sengun, Amen Thompson, Kevin Durant, Josh Okogie)
- +2Nuggets makes two point jump shot39-42
- +2Rockets makes two point jump shot39-40
- Stoppage (Out of bounds)
- Rockets lineup change (Alperen Sengun, Amen Thompson, Jabari Smith Jr., Kevin Durant, Josh Okogie)
- Nuggets lineup change (Aaron Gordon, Nikola Jokic, Bruce Brown, Christian Braun, Cameron Johnson)
- +2Nuggets makes two point jump shot37-40
- Nuggets misses two point jump shot
- Nuggets offensive rebound
- Rockets personal foul
- Jamal Murray defensive rebound
- Rockets misses three point jump shot
- Reed Sheppard defensive rebound
- Nuggets misses two point jump shot
- Rockets turnover
- Rockets personal foul
- Nuggets 60 second timeout
- Rockets lineup change (Reed Sheppard, Alperen Sengun, Jabari Smith Jr., Kevin Durant, Josh Okogie)
- Nuggets lineup change (Nikola Jokic, Jamal Murray, Bruce Brown, Cameron Johnson, Spencer Jones)
- Jamal Murray misses regular free throw 1 of 2
- Nuggets offensive rebound
- +1Jamal Murray makes regular free throw 2 of 237-38
- +2Rockets makes two point jump shot37-37
- +2Nuggets makes two point jump shot35-37
- +2Rockets makes two point jump shot35-35
- +2Nuggets makes two point jump shot33-35
- +2Rockets makes two point jump shot33-33
- +2Nuggets makes two point jump shot31-33
- +2Rockets makes two point jump shot31-31
- Amen Thompson defensive rebound
- Nuggets misses two point jump shot
- Jonas Valanciunas defensive rebound
- +2Rockets makes two point jump shot29-31
- Nuggets personal foul
- Nuggets lineup change (Jonas Valanciunas, Jamal Murray, Bruce Brown, Cameron Johnson, Spencer Jones)
- Rockets lineup change (Reed Sheppard, Alperen Sengun, Amen Thompson, Jabari Smith Jr., Kevin Durant)
- Amen Thompson misses regular free throw 1 of 1
- Jabari Smith Jr. defensive rebound
- Nuggets misses three point jump shot
- +2Rockets makes two point jump shot27-31
- Nuggets turnover
- Tim Hardaway Jr. defensive rebound
- Rockets misses three point jump shot
- Rockets defensive rebound
- Stoppage (Out of bounds)
- Nuggets misses three point jump shot
- Jamal Murray defensive rebound
- Rockets misses three point jump shot
- +2Nuggets makes two point jump shot25-31
- +3Rockets makes three point jump shot25-29
- +3Nuggets makes three point jump shot22-29
- Spencer Jones defensive rebound
- Nuggets personal foul
- Alperen Sengun misses regular free throw 1 of 2
- Rockets offensive rebound
- Alperen Sengun misses regular free throw 2 of 2
- Tari Eason offensive rebound
- Rockets misses two point jump shot
- Tari Eason defensive rebound
- Jamal Murray misses two point jump shot
- +2Rockets makes two point jump shot22-26
- +2Nuggets makes two point jump shot20-26
- Nuggets personal foul
- Rockets offensive rebound
- Alperen Sengun misses regular free throw 1 of 2
- Alperen Sengun misses regular free throw 2 of 2
- Nuggets lineup change (Nikola Jokic, Bruce Brown, Christian Braun, Tim Hardaway Jr., Spencer Jones)
- Nuggets defensive rebound
- End of 1st Quarter.
- Nuggets lineup change (Jonas Valanciunas, Jamal Murray, Bruce Brown, Tim Hardaway Jr., Spencer Jones)
- Rockets lineup change (Tari Eason, Reed Sheppard, Alperen Sengun, Amen Thompson, Jabari Smith Jr.)
- Nuggets personal foul
- Nuggets lineup change (Aaron Gordon, Bruce Brown, Christian Braun, Tim Hardaway Jr., Spencer Jones)
- Amen Thompson defensive rebound
- Rockets personal foul
- +1Bruce Brown makes regular free throw 1 of 220-24
- Rockets lineup change (Tari Eason, Reed Sheppard, Alperen Sengun, Amen Thompson, Kevin Durant)
- Bruce Brown misses regular free throw 2 of 2
- Rockets turnover
- Nuggets turnover
- Stoppage (Out of bounds)
- Nikola Jokic defensive rebound
- Rockets misses two point jump shot
- Amen Thompson defensive rebound
- Nuggets misses two point jump shot
- Rockets turnover
- +2Christian Braun makes two point jump shot20-23
- Nikola Jokic defensive rebound
- Rockets misses three point jump shot
- Tari Eason defensive rebound
- Nuggets misses three point jump shot
- +2Rockets makes two point jump shot20-21
- +2Nuggets makes two point jump shot18-21
- +2Rockets makes two point jump shot18-19
- Nuggets 60 second timeout
- Rockets lineup change (Tari Eason, Clint Capela, Reed Sheppard, Amen Thompson, Josh Okogie)
- Nuggets lineup change (Nikola Jokic, Bruce Brown, Christian Braun, Tim Hardaway Jr., Spencer Jones)
- +2Nuggets makes two point jump shot16-19
- Jamal Murray defensive rebound
- Rockets misses three point jump shot
- Stoppage (Out of bounds)
- Nuggets turnover
- Rockets turnover
- Kevin Durant defensive rebound
- Nuggets misses three point jump shot
- Aaron Gordon defensive rebound
- Rockets misses three point jump shot
- Nuggets turnover
- +2Rockets makes two point jump shot16-17
- Aaron Gordon offensive rebound
- Nuggets misses two point jump shot
- Jabari Smith Jr. defensive rebound
- Nuggets misses two point jump shot
- +2Rockets makes two point jump shot14-17
- +3Nuggets makes three point jump shot12-17
- Josh Okogie offensive rebound
- +2Rockets makes two point jump shot12-14
- Rockets misses three point jump shot
- Clint Capela offensive rebound
- Rockets misses three point jump shot
- Rockets misses two point jump shot
- Nikola Jokic defensive rebound
- Amen Thompson personal foul
- Nuggets 60 second timeout
- Instant replay
- Nuggets lineup change (Aaron Gordon, Nikola Jokic, Jamal Murray, Christian Braun, Tim Hardaway Jr.)
- Rockets lineup change (Clint Capela, Reed Sheppard, Jabari Smith Jr., Kevin Durant, Josh Okogie)
- Nikola Jokic turnover (lost ball)
- +3Nuggets makes three point jump shot10-14
- +2Rockets makes two point jump shot10-11
- Tari Eason offensive rebound
- Rockets misses three point jump shot
- Tari Eason defensive rebound
- Nuggets misses two point jump shot
- Nikola Jokic defensive rebound
- Rockets misses two point jump shot
- +2Nuggets makes two point jump shot8-11
- Rockets turnover
- Nuggets personal foul
- +1Kevin Durant makes technical free throw 1 of 18-9
- +2Nuggets makes two point jump shot7-9
- Rockets personal foul
- Cameron Johnson defensive rebound
- Rockets misses three point jump shot
- +3Nuggets makes three point jump shot7-7
- Jamal Murray defensive rebound
- Rockets misses two point jump shot
- +2Nuggets makes two point jump shot7-4
- Rockets turnover
- Tari Eason defensive rebound
- Nuggets misses two point jump shot
- Stoppage (Out of bounds)
- +3Rockets makes three point jump shot7-2
- Jabari Smith Jr. defensive rebound
- Nuggets misses three point jump shot
- Nikola Jokic defensive rebound
Box Score
Player Stats
Team Stats
| Pos | Player | Pts | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pos | Player | Pts | |
|---|---|---|---|
Rockets vs. Nuggets: Detailed Breakdown
Matchup Overview
- Teams: Rockets vs. Nuggets
- Date: Wednesday, March 11, 2026
- Time: 10:00 PM ET
- Venue: Ball Arena
Current Betting Odds
- Spread: Nuggets favored at -6.5
- Total (Over/Under): 231.5
- Moneyline Odds: Rockets +225, Nuggets -260
Dimers' Win Probabilities
- Rockets: 28%
- Nuggets: 72%
Dimers' predictive model, renowned for its accuracy, assesses each team's chances by simulating the outcome of the game 10,000 times. This method provides a precise and unbiased view.
Projected Final Score
Our predicted final score for this NBA matchup is Rockets 112-119 Nuggets.
This prediction is based on each team's average score following 10,000 game simulations.
Our Prediction: Who Wins?
After extensive simulations, our model gives the Rockets a win probability of 28%, while the Nuggets have a win probability of 72%. Discover the best spread, over/under, and moneyline odds for the game on this page.
Summary
According to our analysis, the Nuggets are more likely to beat the Rockets in the NBA game at Ball Arena on Thursday. Discover the best spread, over/under and moneyline odds, picks and probabilities for the game on this page.
Our Rockets vs. Nuggets predictions, based on sophisticated simulations and current data, guide you in making informed decisions. Remember to bet responsibly and within your financial limits.
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