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Rockets vs. Nuggets Prediction, Picks and Odds
Our detailed prediction and analysis for the Rockets vs. Nuggets NBA game on March 11, 2026 is featured below. Drawing from 10,000 game simulations, we provide expert picks, betting odds, and insights.
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FINAL
NBA
FINAL
NBA
93
129
Mar 12, 2AM Ball Arena
Mar 12, 2AM Ball Arena
In-Play ProbabilitiesIn-Play
Game PredictionsPre-Game
Best Bets | TEAM | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Rockets | 20 | 27 | 22 | 24 | 93 |
Nuggets | 24 | 29 | 40 | 36 | 129 |
Live Probabilities
Spread
Over / Under
Moneyline
Win %
0%
100%
Win Probability
| TEAM | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Rockets | 20 | 27 | 22 | 24 | 93 |
Nuggets | 24 | 29 | 40 | 36 | 129 |
Q4 00:00 Rockets misses three point jump shot
Q4 00:28 Rockets makes three point jump shot
Q4 00:48 Josh Okogie misses two point tip layup
Q4 00:48 Josh Okogie misses two point tip layup
Q4 00:51 Rockets misses three point jump shot
Q4 1:03 Nuggets makes three point jump shot
Q4 1:13 Rockets makes two point jump shot
Q4 1:34 Rockets misses two point jump shot
Q4 1:36 Rockets misses two point jump shot
Q4 1:43 Nuggets misses two point jump shot
Play by Play
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
ALL
Rockets misses three point jump shot
Rockets offensive rebound
End of 4th Quarter.
Nuggets turnover
+3
Rockets makes three point jump shot
93-129
Rockets personal foul
+1
David Roddy makes regular free throw 1 of 2
90-128
+1
David Roddy makes regular free throw 2 of 2
90-129
David Roddy defensive rebound
David Roddy defensive rebound
Josh Okogie misses two point tip layup
Josh Okogie misses two point tip layup
Rockets offensive rebound
Nuggets personal foul
+1
Isaiah Crawford makes regular free throw 1 of 2
90-127
Isaiah Crawford misses regular free throw 2 of 2
Rockets misses three point jump shot
+3
Nuggets makes three point jump shot
89-127
+2
Rockets makes two point jump shot
89-124
Rockets personal foul
Zeke Nnaji misses regular free throw 1 of 2
Nuggets offensive rebound
+1
Zeke Nnaji makes regular free throw 2 of 2
87-124
Rockets turnover
Clint Capela offensive rebound
Clint Capela offensive rebound
Rockets misses two point jump shot
Rockets misses two point jump shot
Isaiah Crawford defensive rebound
Nuggets misses two point jump shot
+2
Rockets makes two point jump shot
87-123
Josh Okogie offensive rebound
Rockets misses three point jump shot
+3
Nuggets makes three point jump shot
85-123
Rockets misses three point jump shot
Nuggets defensive rebound
Stoppage (Out of bounds)
Rockets offensive rebound
Nuggets personal foul
Nuggets 60 second timeout
Rockets misses three point jump shot
Clint Capela defensive rebound
Nuggets misses three point jump shot
David Roddy offensive rebound
Nuggets misses two point jump shot
Zeke Nnaji defensive rebound
Rockets misses three point jump shot
Josh Okogie defensive rebound
Nuggets misses three point jump shot
Julian Strawther defensive rebound
Rockets misses two point jump shot
Rockets defensive rebound
Stoppage (Out of bounds)
Nuggets misses three point jump shot
David Roddy defensive rebound
Rockets misses three point jump shot
Clint Capela offensive rebound
Clint Capela misses two point jump shot
Clint Capela offensive rebound
Rockets misses two point jump shot
Rockets offensive rebound
Stoppage (Out of bounds)
Rockets misses two point jump shot
Aaron Holiday offensive rebound
Rockets misses two point jump shot
Rockets offensive rebound
Stoppage (Out of bounds)
Rockets misses two point jump shot
Jeff Green defensive rebound
Nuggets misses three point jump shot
+2
Rockets makes two point jump shot
85-120
Nuggets personal foul
Zeke Nnaji turnover (offensive foul)
Rockets turnover
+3
Nuggets makes three point jump shot
83-120
David Roddy defensive rebound
Rockets misses three point jump shot
Isaiah Crawford defensive rebound
+2
Nuggets makes two point jump shot
83-117
Rockets personal foul
Nuggets lineup change (Zeke Nnaji, Julian Strawther, Tyus Jones, David Roddy, Jalen Pickett)
Tyus Jones misses regular free throw 1 of 1
Jonas Valanciunas defensive rebound
Rockets misses two point jump shot
+2
Nuggets makes two point jump shot
83-115
+3
Rockets makes three point jump shot
83-113
+2
Nuggets makes two point jump shot
80-113
+2
Rockets makes two point jump shot
80-111
Rockets 60 second timeout
Rockets lineup change (Aaron Holiday, Isaiah Crawford, Clint Capela, Jeff Green, Josh Okogie)
Nuggets lineup change (Jonas Valanciunas, Bruce Brown, Julian Strawther, Tyus Jones, Spencer Jones)
+3
Nuggets makes three point jump shot
78-111
Spencer Jones defensive rebound
Rockets misses three point jump shot
Jonas Valanciunas offensive rebound
+2
Nuggets makes two point jump shot
78-108
Nuggets misses three point jump shot
Bruce Brown defensive rebound
Rockets misses three point jump shot
Jonas Valanciunas offensive rebound
+2
Nuggets makes two point jump shot
78-106
Nuggets misses two point jump shot
Nuggets personal foul
+1
Isaiah Crawford makes regular free throw 1 of 2
77-104
+1
Isaiah Crawford makes regular free throw 2 of 2
78-104
+3
Nuggets makes three point jump shot
76-104
+2
Rockets makes two point jump shot
76-101
Clint Capela offensive rebound
Rockets misses two point jump shot
+2
Nuggets makes two point jump shot
74-101
Nuggets personal foul
Clint Capela misses regular free throw 1 of 2
Rockets offensive rebound
+1
Clint Capela makes regular free throw 2 of 2
74-99
+3
Nuggets makes three point jump shot
73-99
+2
Rockets makes two point jump shot
73-96
Nuggets turnover
+2
Rockets makes two point jump shot
71-96
+3
Nuggets makes three point jump shot
69-96
Nuggets defensive rebound
Stoppage (Out of bounds)
Nuggets personal foul
Josh Okogie misses regular free throw 1 of 2
Rockets offensive rebound
Josh Okogie misses regular free throw 2 of 2
Nuggets turnover
Jonas Valanciunas defensive rebound
Rockets misses two point jump shot
Rockets misses three point jump shot
Rockets offensive rebound
End of 3rd Quarter.
Rockets lineup change (Aaron Holiday, Isaiah Crawford, Clint Capela, Reed Sheppard, Josh Okogie)
Nuggets lineup change (Jonas Valanciunas, Jamal Murray, Bruce Brown, Tim Hardaway Jr., Spencer Jones)
+3
Nuggets makes three point jump shot
69-93
Tim Hardaway Jr. defensive rebound
Rockets misses three point jump shot
+2
Nuggets makes two point jump shot
69-90
Rockets turnover
Rockets personal foul
Nikola Jokic misses regular free throw 1 of 2
Nuggets offensive rebound
+1
Nikola Jokic makes regular free throw 2 of 2
69-88
Rockets personal foul
Cameron Johnson personal foul (Double)
Rockets turnover
Jabari Smith Jr. defensive rebound
Nuggets misses two point jump shot
Nikola Jokic offensive rebound
Nuggets misses two point jump shot
Stoppage (Out of bounds)
Amen Thompson offensive rebound
+2
Rockets makes two point jump shot
69-87
Rockets misses two point jump shot
Nuggets misses two point jump shot
Rockets defensive rebound
Stoppage (Out of bounds)
Nikola Jokic defensive rebound
Rockets misses two point jump shot
+2
Nuggets makes two point jump shot
67-87
+2
Rockets makes two point jump shot
67-85
Spencer Jones defensive rebound
Rockets personal foul
Nuggets offensive rebound
Bruce Brown misses regular free throw 1 of 2
+1
Bruce Brown makes regular free throw 2 of 2
65-85
Rockets misses two point jump shot
Rockets misses two point jump shot
Rockets offensive rebound
Nuggets personal foul
Nuggets personal foul
Nuggets lineup change (Nikola Jokic, Bruce Brown, Tim Hardaway Jr., Cameron Johnson, Spencer Jones)
Rockets personal foul
+1
Jamal Murray makes regular free throw 1 of 2
65-83
+1
Jamal Murray makes regular free throw 2 of 2
65-84
Nuggets lineup change (Nikola Jokic, Jamal Murray, Tim Hardaway Jr., Cameron Johnson, Spencer Jones)
+2
Rockets makes two point jump shot
65-82
Reed Sheppard defensive rebound
Nuggets misses two point jump shot
Christian Braun defensive rebound
Rockets misses three point jump shot
Rockets 60 second timeout
Rockets lineup change (Aaron Holiday, Clint Capela, Reed Sheppard, Amen Thompson, Jabari Smith Jr.)
Nuggets lineup change (Nikola Jokic, Jamal Murray, Christian Braun, Cameron Johnson, Spencer Jones)
+3
Nuggets makes three point jump shot
63-82
Nikola Jokic defensive rebound
Rockets misses three point jump shot
+3
Nuggets makes three point jump shot
63-79
Nikola Jokic offensive rebound
Nuggets misses two point jump shot
+2
Rockets makes two point jump shot
63-76
+2
Nuggets makes two point jump shot
61-76
Rockets turnover
Josh Okogie personal foul
+1
Cameron Johnson makes regular free throw 1 of 2
61-73
+1
Cameron Johnson makes regular free throw 2 of 2
61-74
Rockets turnover
Rockets personal foul
+1
Jamal Murray makes regular free throw 1 of 2
61-71
Rockets lineup change (Tari Eason, Reed Sheppard, Alperen Sengun, Kevin Durant, Josh Okogie)
+1
Jamal Murray makes regular free throw 2 of 2
61-72
+2
Rockets makes two point jump shot
61-70
+2
Nuggets makes two point jump shot
59-69
Rockets personal foul
+1
Nikola Jokic makes regular free throw 1 of 1
59-70
+2
Rockets makes two point jump shot
59-67
Jabari Smith Jr. defensive rebound
Nuggets misses two point jump shot
+2
Rockets makes two point jump shot
57-67
+3
Nuggets makes three point jump shot
55-67
Nikola Jokic offensive rebound
Nuggets misses two point jump shot
Christian Braun defensive rebound
Rockets misses three point jump shot
+2
Nuggets makes two point jump shot
55-64
Rockets 60 second timeout
Rockets lineup change (Reed Sheppard, Alperen Sengun, Amen Thompson, Jabari Smith Jr., Kevin Durant)
Christian Braun defensive rebound
Rockets misses three point jump shot
+2
Nuggets makes two point jump shot
55-62
Rockets turnover
Amen Thompson misses two point running layup
Nuggets defensive rebound
Stoppage (Out of bounds)
Amen Thompson defensive rebound
Nuggets misses three point jump shot
Rockets personal foul
+2
Rockets makes two point jump shot
55-60
+3
Nuggets makes three point jump shot (Nikola Jokic assists)
53-60
Aaron Gordon defensive rebound
Rockets misses two point jump shot
Rockets misses two point jump shot
Jabari Smith Jr. defensive rebound
Nuggets misses two point jump shot
Stoppage (Out of bounds)
+2
Rockets makes two point jump shot
53-57
Alperen Sengun offensive rebound
Rockets misses three point jump shot
Alperen Sengun defensive rebound
Nuggets misses two point jump shot
+2
Rockets makes two point jump shot
51-57
Tari Eason defensive rebound
Nuggets misses two point jump shot
Stoppage (Out of bounds)
+2
Rockets makes two point jump shot
49-57
Rockets personal foul
+1
Nikola Jokic makes regular free throw 1 of 2
47-56
+1
Nikola Jokic makes regular free throw 2 of 2
47-57
Aaron Gordon defensive rebound
Rockets misses three point jump shot
+2
Nuggets makes two point jump shot
47-55
Rockets personal foul
Rockets misses three point jump shot
Rockets offensive rebound
End of 1st Half.
Rockets lineup change (Tari Eason, Alperen Sengun, Amen Thompson, Jabari Smith Jr., Kevin Durant)
Nuggets lineup change (Aaron Gordon, Nikola Jokic, Jamal Murray, Christian Braun, Cameron Johnson)
+3
Nuggets makes three point jump shot
47-53
+2
Rockets makes two point jump shot
47-50
Nuggets personal foul
Rockets lineup change (Tari Eason, Reed Sheppard, Alperen Sengun, Amen Thompson, Kevin Durant)
Kevin Durant defensive rebound
Nuggets misses two point jump shot
Stoppage (Equipment malfunction)
Rockets personal foul
Rockets lineup change (Tari Eason, Clint Capela, Reed Sheppard, Amen Thompson, Kevin Durant)
+2
Rockets makes two point jump shot
45-50
Jabari Smith Jr. offensive rebound
Rockets misses three point jump shot
+2
Nuggets makes two point jump shot
43-50
Rockets turnover
Clint Capela offensive rebound
Rockets misses two point jump shot
+2
Nuggets makes two point jump shot
43-48
Rockets turnover
+2
Nuggets makes two point jump shot
43-46
Rockets 60 second timeout
Nuggets lineup change (Aaron Gordon, Nikola Jokic, Jamal Murray, Christian Braun, Tim Hardaway Jr.)
Rockets lineup change (Clint Capela, Reed Sheppard, Amen Thompson, Jabari Smith Jr., Kevin Durant)
Tim Hardaway Jr. defensive rebound
Rockets misses three point jump shot
+2
Nuggets makes two point jump shot
43-44
Rockets turnover
Kevin Durant defensive rebound
Nuggets misses three point jump shot
+2
Rockets makes two point jump shot
43-42
Nuggets misses two point jump shot
Nikola Jokic offensive rebound
Nuggets misses two point jump shot
Rockets defensive rebound
Stoppage (Out of bounds)
+2
Rockets makes two point jump shot
41-42
Nuggets personal foul
Nikola Jokic turnover (offensive foul)
Nuggets lineup change (Aaron Gordon, Nikola Jokic, Christian Braun, Tim Hardaway Jr., Cameron Johnson)
Rockets turnover
Rockets lineup change (Tari Eason, Alperen Sengun, Amen Thompson, Kevin Durant, Josh Okogie)
+2
Nuggets makes two point jump shot
39-42
+2
Rockets makes two point jump shot
39-40
Stoppage (Out of bounds)
Rockets lineup change (Alperen Sengun, Amen Thompson, Jabari Smith Jr., Kevin Durant, Josh Okogie)
Nuggets lineup change (Aaron Gordon, Nikola Jokic, Bruce Brown, Christian Braun, Cameron Johnson)
+2
Nuggets makes two point jump shot
37-40
Nuggets misses two point jump shot
Nuggets offensive rebound
Rockets personal foul
Jamal Murray defensive rebound
Rockets misses three point jump shot
Reed Sheppard defensive rebound
Nuggets misses two point jump shot
Rockets turnover
Rockets personal foul
Nuggets 60 second timeout
Rockets lineup change (Reed Sheppard, Alperen Sengun, Jabari Smith Jr., Kevin Durant, Josh Okogie)
Nuggets lineup change (Nikola Jokic, Jamal Murray, Bruce Brown, Cameron Johnson, Spencer Jones)
Jamal Murray misses regular free throw 1 of 2
Nuggets offensive rebound
+1
Jamal Murray makes regular free throw 2 of 2
37-38
+2
Rockets makes two point jump shot
37-37
+2
Nuggets makes two point jump shot
35-37
+2
Rockets makes two point jump shot
35-35
+2
Nuggets makes two point jump shot
33-35
+2
Rockets makes two point jump shot
33-33
+2
Nuggets makes two point jump shot
31-33
+2
Rockets makes two point jump shot
31-31
Amen Thompson defensive rebound
Nuggets misses two point jump shot
Jonas Valanciunas defensive rebound
+2
Rockets makes two point jump shot
29-31
Nuggets personal foul
Nuggets lineup change (Jonas Valanciunas, Jamal Murray, Bruce Brown, Cameron Johnson, Spencer Jones)
Rockets lineup change (Reed Sheppard, Alperen Sengun, Amen Thompson, Jabari Smith Jr., Kevin Durant)
Amen Thompson misses regular free throw 1 of 1
Jabari Smith Jr. defensive rebound
Nuggets misses three point jump shot
+2
Rockets makes two point jump shot
27-31
Nuggets turnover
Tim Hardaway Jr. defensive rebound
Rockets misses three point jump shot
Rockets defensive rebound
Stoppage (Out of bounds)
Nuggets misses three point jump shot
Jamal Murray defensive rebound
Rockets misses three point jump shot
+2
Nuggets makes two point jump shot
25-31
+3
Rockets makes three point jump shot
25-29
+3
Nuggets makes three point jump shot
22-29
Spencer Jones defensive rebound
Nuggets personal foul
Alperen Sengun misses regular free throw 1 of 2
Rockets offensive rebound
Alperen Sengun misses regular free throw 2 of 2
Tari Eason offensive rebound
Rockets misses two point jump shot
Tari Eason defensive rebound
Jamal Murray misses two point jump shot
+2
Rockets makes two point jump shot
22-26
+2
Nuggets makes two point jump shot
20-26
Nuggets personal foul
Rockets offensive rebound
Alperen Sengun misses regular free throw 1 of 2
Alperen Sengun misses regular free throw 2 of 2
Nuggets lineup change (Nikola Jokic, Bruce Brown, Christian Braun, Tim Hardaway Jr., Spencer Jones)
Nuggets defensive rebound
End of 1st Quarter.
Nuggets lineup change (Jonas Valanciunas, Jamal Murray, Bruce Brown, Tim Hardaway Jr., Spencer Jones)
Rockets lineup change (Tari Eason, Reed Sheppard, Alperen Sengun, Amen Thompson, Jabari Smith Jr.)
Nuggets personal foul
Nuggets lineup change (Aaron Gordon, Bruce Brown, Christian Braun, Tim Hardaway Jr., Spencer Jones)
Amen Thompson defensive rebound
Rockets personal foul
+1
Bruce Brown makes regular free throw 1 of 2
20-24
Rockets lineup change (Tari Eason, Reed Sheppard, Alperen Sengun, Amen Thompson, Kevin Durant)
Bruce Brown misses regular free throw 2 of 2
Rockets turnover
Nuggets turnover
Stoppage (Out of bounds)
Nikola Jokic defensive rebound
Rockets misses two point jump shot
Amen Thompson defensive rebound
Nuggets misses two point jump shot
Rockets turnover
+2
Christian Braun makes two point jump shot
20-23
Nikola Jokic defensive rebound
Rockets misses three point jump shot
Tari Eason defensive rebound
Nuggets misses three point jump shot
+2
Rockets makes two point jump shot
20-21
+2
Nuggets makes two point jump shot
18-21
+2
Rockets makes two point jump shot
18-19
Nuggets 60 second timeout
Rockets lineup change (Tari Eason, Clint Capela, Reed Sheppard, Amen Thompson, Josh Okogie)
Nuggets lineup change (Nikola Jokic, Bruce Brown, Christian Braun, Tim Hardaway Jr., Spencer Jones)
+2
Nuggets makes two point jump shot
16-19
Jamal Murray defensive rebound
Rockets misses three point jump shot
Stoppage (Out of bounds)
Nuggets turnover
Rockets turnover
Kevin Durant defensive rebound
Nuggets misses three point jump shot
Aaron Gordon defensive rebound
Rockets misses three point jump shot
Nuggets turnover
+2
Rockets makes two point jump shot
16-17
Aaron Gordon offensive rebound
Nuggets misses two point jump shot
Jabari Smith Jr. defensive rebound
Nuggets misses two point jump shot
+2
Rockets makes two point jump shot
14-17
+3
Nuggets makes three point jump shot
12-17
Josh Okogie offensive rebound
+2
Rockets makes two point jump shot
12-14
Rockets misses three point jump shot
Clint Capela offensive rebound
Rockets misses three point jump shot
Rockets misses two point jump shot
Nikola Jokic defensive rebound
Amen Thompson personal foul
Nuggets 60 second timeout
Instant replay
Nuggets lineup change (Aaron Gordon, Nikola Jokic, Jamal Murray, Christian Braun, Tim Hardaway Jr.)
Rockets lineup change (Clint Capela, Reed Sheppard, Jabari Smith Jr., Kevin Durant, Josh Okogie)
Nikola Jokic turnover (lost ball)
+3
Nuggets makes three point jump shot
10-14
+2
Rockets makes two point jump shot
10-11
Tari Eason offensive rebound
Rockets misses three point jump shot
Tari Eason defensive rebound
Nuggets misses two point jump shot
Nikola Jokic defensive rebound
Rockets misses two point jump shot
+2
Nuggets makes two point jump shot
8-11
Rockets turnover
Nuggets personal foul
+1
Kevin Durant makes technical free throw 1 of 1
8-9
+2
Nuggets makes two point jump shot
7-9
Rockets personal foul
Cameron Johnson defensive rebound
Rockets misses three point jump shot
+3
Nuggets makes three point jump shot
7-7
Jamal Murray defensive rebound
Rockets misses two point jump shot
+2
Nuggets makes two point jump shot
7-4
Rockets turnover
Tari Eason defensive rebound
Nuggets misses two point jump shot
Stoppage (Out of bounds)
+3
Rockets makes three point jump shot
7-2
Jabari Smith Jr. defensive rebound
Nuggets misses three point jump shot
Nikola Jokic defensive rebound
Box Score
Player Stats
Team Stats
| Pos | Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | 20 | J. Okogie | 12 | 4 | 3 |
| G | 0 | A. Holiday | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| C | 30 | C. Capela | 9 | 7 | 0 |
| F | 32 | J. Green | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| F | 27 | I. Crawford | 5 | 3 | 1 |
| Pos | Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | 24 | J. Pickett | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| F | 45 | D. Roddy | 2 | 5 | 1 |
| F-C | 22 | Z. Nnaji | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| G | 3 | J. Strawther | 6 | 1 | 0 |
| G | 5 | T. Jones | 2 | 0 | 2 |
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Rockets vs. Nuggets: Detailed Breakdown
Matchup Overview
- Teams: Rockets vs. Nuggets
- Date: Wednesday, March 11, 2026
- Time: 10:00 PM ET
- Venue: Ball Arena
Current Betting Odds
- Spread: Nuggets favored at -6.5
- Total (Over/Under): 231.5
- Moneyline Odds: Rockets +225, Nuggets -260
Dimers' Win Probabilities
- Rockets: 28%
- Nuggets: 72%
Dimers' predictive model, renowned for its accuracy, assesses each team's chances by simulating the outcome of the game 10,000 times. This method provides a precise and unbiased view.
Projected Final Score
Our predicted final score for this NBA matchup is Rockets 112-119 Nuggets.
This prediction is based on each team's average score following 10,000 game simulations.
Our Prediction: Who Wins?
After extensive simulations, our model gives the Rockets a win probability of 28%, while the Nuggets have a win probability of 72%. Discover the best spread, over/under, and moneyline odds for the game on this page.
Summary
According to our analysis, the Nuggets are more likely to beat the Rockets in the NBA game at Ball Arena on Thursday. Discover the best spread, over/under and moneyline odds, picks and probabilities for the game on this page.
Our Rockets vs. Nuggets predictions, based on sophisticated simulations and current data, guide you in making informed decisions. Remember to bet responsibly and within your financial limits.
For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.
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For further insights, explore our expert NBA predictions and the best NBA bets today, while our in-depth analysis includes NBA props, NBA futures, NBA odds, and the latest NBA news.
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