Jul 6, 2026
MLB picks today: Monday's MLB best bets include Yankees vs. Rays play [7/6/2026]
Read Article MLB player props today: Monday's best props include Kyle Freeland [7/6/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Dave Garofolo, Content Producer
Get MLB player props today with projections for Monday's games.
Dimers' MLB props are live for July 6, 2026, with today's top prop bets led by the likes of Kyle Freeland, Dustin May and Mike Burrows.
Our MLB player props model runs continuously, analyzing every matchup, including Mets vs. Braves and Phillies vs. Royals, to surface the best MLB player prop bets across the market.
List of MLB prop bets for Monday, 7/6
Sourced from 45+ total MLB props on site today, below are the top 10 MLB player props for July 6, ranked by probability.
Kyle Freeland under 4.5 strikeouts (-158)
- Edge: 8.2%
- Probability: 69.4%
- Game: Rockies vs. Dodgers (10:10PM ET)
Our model has flagged value on Colorado's Kyle Freeland under 4.5 strikeouts. A probability of 69.4% gives this play an edge of 8.2% at -158 odds.
Dustin May over 3.5 strikeouts (-150)
- Edge: 5.0%
- Probability: 65.0%
- Game: Brewers vs. Cardinals (7:45PM ET)
Dustin May’s strikeouts prop shows a 65.0% probability and an 5.0% edge at -150 odds, according to our model.
Mike Burrows under 16.5 outs recorded (-122)
- Edge: 7.8%
- Probability: 62.7%
- Game: Astros vs. Nationals (6:45PM ET)
The data highlights value on Mike Burrows under 16.5 outs recorded, with simulations showing a 62.7% probability and a 7.8% edge at -122.
Nick Allen to get a hit (-145)
- Edge: 3.4%
- Probability: 62.6%
- Game: Astros vs. Nationals (6:45PM ET)
Our model finds value on Nick Allen to get a hit, with a 62.6% probability and an edge of 3.4% at -145 odds.
Nathan Church to get a hit (-130)
- Edge: 3.3%
- Probability: 59.8%
- Game: Brewers vs. Cardinals (7:45PM ET)
Simulations indicate value on Nathan Church to get a hit for St. Louis, showing an edge of 3.3% at -130 odds.
Yordan Alvarez over 1.5 bases (-130)
- Edge: 2.4%
- Probability: 58.9%
- Game: Astros vs. Nationals (6:45PM ET)
Yordan Alvarez’s bases prop shows an edge of 2.4% at -130 odds, supported by a 58.9% probability according to our model.
Teoscar Hernández over 1.5 bases (+105)
- Edge: 9.2%
- Probability: 58.0%
- Game: Rockies vs. Dodgers (10:10PM ET)
Our model highlights value on Teoscar Hernández over 1.5 bases for LA Dodgers, with a 58.0% probability and a 9.2% edge at +105 odds.
Andy Pages over 1.5 bases (-110)
- Edge: 4.9%
- Probability: 57.3%
- Game: Rockies vs. Dodgers (10:10PM ET)
The data shows value on Andy Pages over 1.5 bases, supported by a 57.3% probability at -110 odds and an edge of 4.9%.
Freddie Freeman over 1.5 bases (-105)
- Edge: 5.9%
- Probability: 57.1%
- Game: Rockies vs. Dodgers (10:10PM ET)
A 5.9% edge on the over 1.5 bases line makes Freddie Freeman a value play in Rockies vs. Dodgers, supported by a 57.1% probability at -105 odds.
Michael Massey to get a hit (-120)
- Edge: 2.3%
- Probability: 56.8%
- Game: Phillies vs. Royals (2:10PM ET)
Simulations show value on Michael Massey to get a hit here, with a 56.8% probability and 2.3% edge at -120 odds.
MLB player prop summary: Monday, July 6, 2026
A quick summary of today’s top props by probability according to our model as of 2:31AM ET:
| Matchup | Prop | Odds | Edge | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rockies vs. Dodgers | Kyle Freeland under 4.5 strikeouts | -158 @ DraftKings | 8.2% | 69.4% |
| Brewers vs. Cardinals | Dustin May over 3.5 strikeouts | -150 @ Fanatics | 5.0% | 65.0% |
| Astros vs. Nationals | Mike Burrows under 16.5 outs recorded | -122 @ DraftKings | 3.4% | 62.6% |
| Astros vs. Nationals | Nick Allen to get a hit | -145 @ FanDuel | 3.4% | 62.6% |
| Brewers vs. Cardinals | Nathan Church to get a hit | -130 @ Fanatics | 3.3% | 59.8% |
| Astros vs. Nationals | Yordan Alvarez over 1.5 bases | -130 @ Fanatics | 2.4% | 58.9% |
| Rockies vs. Dodgers | Teoscar Hernández over 1.5 bases | +105 @ Fanatics | 9.2% | 58.0% |
| Rockies vs. Dodgers | Andy Pages over 1.5 bases | -110 @ DraftKings | 4.9% | 57.3% |
| Rockies vs. Dodgers | Freddie Freeman over 1.5 bases | -105 @ DraftKings | 5.9% | 57.1% |
| Phillies vs. Royals | Michael Massey to get a hit | -120 @ DraftKings | 2.3% | 56.8% |
Conclusion
For July 6, 2026, our MLB prop bets feature players such as Kyle Freeland, Dustin May and Mike Burrows. Each pick is grounded in real-time data and advanced simulations to help you bet with clarity and purpose.
Built using automation and human oversight, this article draws on the latest data to deliver accurate, timely insights. If using this article for betting, Dimers encourages responsible gambling.
Dave Garofolo uses sophisticated AI-driven analytics to make predictions and evaluate player performances in the NBA, MLB, NFL, NHL, NCAAM, and PGA TOUR tournaments, crafting insightful game and prop previews.
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