MLB picks today: Monday's MLB best bets include Phillies vs. Royals play [7/6/2026]

Royals +1.5 (+108)

• Edge: 4.9%
• Probability: 53%
• Matchup: Phillies vs. Royals (2:10PM ET)

Our model has identified value on Royals +1.5 at +108 odds. A 53% probability produces an edge of 4.9%, making this the strongest play for today's MLB slate.

Yankees vs. Rays Over 7.5 runs (+108)

• Edge: 4.4%
• Probability: 52.5%
• Matchup: Yankees vs. Rays (6:40PM ET)

Yankees vs. Rays over 7.5 runs carries a 4.4% edge and a probability of 52.5% at +108 odds, according to our model.

Blue Jays vs. Giants Over 7.5 runs (-108)

• Edge: 4.1%
• Probability: 56%
• Matchup: Blue Jays vs. Giants (9:45PM ET)

Blue Jays vs. Giants Over 7.5 runs at -108 odds shows a 4.1% edge, supported by a 56% probability in simulations.

Astros ML (+120)

• Edge: 3.8%
• Probability: 49.3%
• Matchup: Astros vs. Nationals (6:45PM ET)

A 3.8% edge and 49.3% probability makes Astros at the moneyline a value play in the Astros vs. Nationals matchup, per our model.

Diamondbacks vs. Padres Over 8.5 runs (-104)

• Edge: 3.7%
• Probability: 54.7%
• Matchup: Diamondbacks vs. Padres (9:40PM ET)

Diamondbacks vs. Padres Over 8.5 runs at -104 odds presents a 3.7% edge, with simulations resulting in a probability of 54.7%.

Royals ML (+170)

• Edge: 3.1%
• Probability: 40.2%
• Matchup: Phillies vs. Royals (2:10PM ET)

Our model finds value on Royals to win at +170 odds, supported by an edge of 3.1%.

Mets vs. Braves Over 8.5 runs (-113)

• Edge: 2.9%
• Probability: 55.9%
• Matchup: Mets vs. Braves (7:15PM ET)

Our model has uncovered value on Mets vs. Braves Over 8.5 runs at -113 odds. A 55.9% probability produces a 2.9% edge, making this a strong play for today's MLB action.

Brewers vs. Cardinals Over 7.5 runs (-115)

• Edge: 2.7%
• Probability: 56.1%
• Matchup: Brewers vs. Cardinals (7:45PM ET)

A 2.7% edge on a 56.1% probability makes Over 7.5 runs at -115 odds a solid value play in today's Brewers vs. Cardinals matchup.

Dodgers ML (-194)

• Edge: 2.6%
• Probability: 68.6%
• Matchup: Rockies vs. Dodgers (10:10PM ET)

Our model projects value on Dodgers to win at -194 odds. A 68.6% probability produces a 2.6% edge, making Dodgers the favorable ML play in today's matchup.

Rockies vs. Dodgers Under 10.5 runs (-104)

• Edge: 2.4%
• Probability: 53.3%
• Matchup: Rockies vs. Dodgers (10:10PM ET)

Rounding out our top 10 bets, Rockies vs. Dodgers Under 10.5 runs at -104 odds shows a 53.3% probability and a 2.4% edge.

MLB best bets summary: Monday, 7/6/2026

As of 3:17AM ET, here are our top MLB bets by edge recommended by our model:

List of upcoming MLB games to bet on [7/6/2026]

• Phillies vs. Royals (2:10PM ET, Monday)
• Yankees vs. Rays (6:40PM ET, Monday)
• Astros vs. Nationals (6:45PM ET, Monday)
• Mets vs. Braves (7:15PM ET, Monday)
• Brewers vs. Cardinals (7:45PM ET, Monday)
• D-Backs vs. Padres (9:40PM ET, Monday)
• Blue Jays vs. Giants (9:45PM ET, Monday)
• Rockies vs. Dodgers (10:10PM ET, Monday)

Conclusion

Our MLB best bets are locked and loaded for July 6, 2026, featuring plays such as Royals +1.5 vs. Phillies and over 7.5 runs in the Yankees vs. Rays matchup. Powered by advanced simulations, these picks are here to boost your betting game.

Our predictions are sourced from current data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice, head to our Responsible Gambling hub.

All odds and probabilities in this article are correct and accurate at the time of publication.