Home run predictions for Friday include Shohei Ohtani, Giancarlo Stanton [7/4/2025]

Our MLB home run predictions for Friday, July 4, 2025, are in—with Shohei Ohtani topping the list based on the latest Dimers Pro simulation data.

These aren't guesses. Friday's HR projections come from our home run predictions, which simulate every MLB matchup 10,000 times to reveal the most likely home run hitters today.

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Home run predictions for July 4, 2025

Our analysis shows Ohtani leads today's MLB home run predictions with a 22.5% chance to go yard, followed by Aaron Judge (22.3%) and Kyle Schwarber (20.8%).

Giancarlo Stanton and Cal Raleigh are among several other sluggers to rank inside the top 10. Want the full list of home run props today—including every player's HR probability for Friday? Join Dimers Pro now.

Friday's home run picks [7/4/2025]

After running 10,000 simulations per matchup and assessing key variables like weather and pitching matchups, Dimers Pro has identified one of the best MLB home run props today.

Martin Maldonado (Padres) to hit a home run

• Probability: 11.4%
• Odds: +1250
• Edge: 4.0%
• Game: Rangers vs. Padres (6:40PM ET)
• Pitching matchup: Kumar Rocker

Despite not cracking the top 10 in today's home run predictions, San Diego slugger Martin Maldonado offers serious value at +1250 with BetMGM, showing an edge of 4.0%—making him one of the strongest home run bets today.

With Kumar Rocker on the mound for the Rangers, Maldonado shapes up as one of the best home run picks today on Friday's slate.

Martin Maldonado to hit a home run

+1250

Bet $20
Payout $270Bet $20, Payout $270

For more expert MLB picks and data-driven MLB predictions, join Dimers Pro now. Pro users get full access to a total of 80 home run predictions today, plus hit and RBI projections, pitcher props, and more—perfect for building smarter MLB parlays and round robins.

Dimers Pro has 80 home run picks for Friday

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MLB schedule for today [Friday, July 4, 2025]

• Red Sox vs. Nationals (11:05AM ET, Friday)
• Reds vs. Phillies (1:05PM ET, Friday)
• Cardinals vs. Cubs (2:20PM ET, Friday)
• Yankees vs. Mets (3:10PM ET, Friday)
• Rays vs. Twins (4:10PM ET, Friday)
• Pirates vs. Mariners (4:10PM ET, Friday)
• Rangers vs. Padres (6:40PM ET, Friday)
• Angels vs. Blue Jays (7:07PM ET, Friday)
• Tigers vs. Guardians (7:10PM ET, Friday)
• Brewers vs. Marlins (7:10PM ET, Friday)
• Orioles vs. Braves (7:15PM ET, Friday)
• White Sox vs. Rockies (8:10PM ET, Friday)
• Royals vs. D-Backs (9:40PM ET, Friday)
• Giants vs. Athletics (10:05PM ET, Friday)

Conclusion

For July 4, 2025, our MLB home run predictions are locked in, with sluggers like Shohei Ohtani, Aaron Judge and Kyle Schwarber projected to be among the most powerful bats in today’s games. But it's Martin Maldonado who stands out as the best value bet, offering an appealing 4.0% edge at +1250 odds.

These insights are based on 10,000 game simulations and are designed to help you identify smarter betting opportunities. As always, gamble responsibly. If you or someone you know needs support, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

For more coverage, check out today's MLB player props and MLB best bets. Plus, stay updated with the latest MLB news, MLB betting trends updated every 15 minutes, and World Series odds.

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