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Read Article Home run predictions for Thursday include Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton [7/3/2025]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Dave Garofolo, Content Producer
Get home run predictions today driven by expert analysis of Thursday's MLB slate.
Our MLB home run predictions for Thursday, July 3, 2025, are here—with Aaron Judge topping the list according to the latest Dimers Pro simulation data.
Thursday's HR projections pull from our full list of home run predictions, which simulate every MLB matchup 10,000 times to reveal the most likely home run hitters today.
Bet smarter with Pro: Use 20BASEBALL for 20% off Home run predictions for July 3, 2025
| Player (Team) | HR Projection |
|---|---|
| Aaron Judge (Yankees) | 23.2% |
| Shohei Ohtani (Dodgers) | 22.5% |
| Giancarlo Stanton (Yankees) | 20.5% |
| Cal Raleigh (Mariners) | 🔒 |
| Byron Buxton (Twins) | 🔒 |
| Pete Alonso (Mets) | 🔒 |
| Teoscar Hernandez (Dodgers) | 🔒 |
| Hunter Goodman (Rockies) | 🔒 |
| Matt Olson (Braves) | 🔒 |
| Mike Trout (Angels) | 🔒 |
Our analysis shows Judge leads today's MLB home run predictions with a 23.2% chance to go deep, followed by Shohei Ohtani (22.5%) and Giancarlo Stanton (20.5%).
Cal Raleigh and Byron Buxton are among several other sluggers to rank inside the top 10. Want the full list of home run props today—including every player's HR prediction for Thursday? Join Dimers Pro now.
Thursday's home run picks [7/3/2025]
After running 10,000 simulations per matchup and assessing key factors like weather and pitching matchups, Dimers Pro has identified one of the best MLB home run props today.
Michael Harris II (Braves) to hit a home run
- Probability: 11.9%
- Odds: +900
- Edge: 1.9%
- Game: Angels vs. Braves (7:15PM ET)
- Pitching matchup: José Soriano
Despite not cracking the top 10 in today's home run predictions, Atlanta slugger Michael Harris II offers standout value at +900 with Bet365, showing an edge of 1.9%—making him one of the strongest home run bets today.
Set to face José Soriano in tonight's Angels-Braves matchup, this combination of betting value and power potential makes II one of the best home run picks today on Thursday's slate.
For more expert MLB picks and data-led MLB predictions, join Dimers Pro now. Pro users get full access to a total of 54 home run predictions today, plus hit and RBI projections, pitcher props, and more—perfect for building smarter MLB parlays and round robins.
Dimers Pro has 54 home run picks for Thursday MLB schedule for today [Thursday, July 3, 2025]
- Twins vs. Marlins (12:10PM ET, Thursday)
- Yankees vs. Blue Jays (7:07PM ET, Thursday)
- Brewers vs. Mets (7:10PM ET, Thursday)
- Angels vs. Braves (7:15PM ET, Thursday)
- Guardians vs. Cubs (8:05PM ET, Thursday)
- Giants vs. D-Backs (9:40PM ET, Thursday)
- White Sox vs. Dodgers (10:10PM ET, Thursday)
Conclusion
For July 3, 2025, our MLB home run predictions are locked in, with sluggers like Aaron Judge, Shohei Ohtani and Giancarlo Stanton projected to be among the most powerful bats in today’s games. But it's Michael Harris II who stands out as the best value bet, offering a favorable 1.9% edge at +900 odds.
These insights are based on 10,000 game simulations and are designed to help you identify smarter betting opportunities. As always, gamble responsibly. If you or someone you know needs support, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
For more coverage, check out today's MLB player props and MLB best bets. Plus, stay updated with the latest MLB news, MLB betting trends updated every 15 minutes, and World Series odds.
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Dave Garofolo uses sophisticated AI-driven analytics to make predictions and evaluate player performances in the NBA, MLB, NFL, NHL, NCAAM, and PGA TOUR tournaments, crafting insightful game and prop previews.
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