May 15, 2026
Cubs vs. White Sox prediction: Why Cubs are favored to win Friday's MLB matchup [5/15/2026]
Read Article Home run predictions for Friday include Shohei Ohtani, Nick Kurtz [5/15/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Jason Bevilacqua, Head of Content and Communities
Get home run predictions today driven by expert analysis of Friday's MLB slate.
Our MLB home run predictions for Friday, May 15, 2026, feature Shohei Ohtani as the top projected hitter, according to Dimers Pro's latest simulation data.
Friday's HR projections pull from our proprietary home run predictions, which simulate every MLB matchup 10,000 times to reveal the most likely home run hitters today.
Home run predictions for May 15, 2026
See which hitters join Ohtani on today’s list — including one long-shot pick the model rates as value at +630.
| Player (Team) | HR Projection |
|---|---|
| Shohei Ohtani (Dodgers) | 27.4% |
| Nick Kurtz (Athletics) | 24.9% |
| Shea Langeliers (Athletics) | 22.7% |
| Brent Rooker (Athletics) | 21.4% |
| Aaron Judge (Yankees) | 20.8% |
| Kyle Tucker (Dodgers) | 20.7% |
| Teoscar Hernandez (Dodgers) | 20.0% |
| Max Muncy (Dodgers) | 19.8% |
| Ketel Marte (Diamondbacks) | 19.6% |
| Corbin Carroll (Diamondbacks) | 19.6% |
Our analysis shows Ohtani leads today's MLB home run predictions with a 27.4% chance to go deep, followed by Nick Kurtz (24.9%) and Shea Langeliers (22.7%).
Brent Rooker and Aaron Judge are among several other sluggers to rank inside the top 10.
Want the full list of home run props today—including every player's HR prediction for Friday? Check out today's HR and hitter projections and sort by “To Hit HR” to see every player’s probability of going deep.
Friday's home run picks [5/15/2026]
Dimers Pro’s 10,000-simulation model, factoring in weather and pitching matchups, highlights today’s highest-rated home run prop.
Teoscar Hernandez (Dodgers) to hit a home run
- Probability: 20%
- Odds: +630
- Edge: 6.3%
- Game: Dodgers vs. Angels (9:38 PM EDT)
- Pitching matchup: Jack Kochanowicz
Ranked among today’s top 10 home run projections, Los Angeles slugger Teoscar Hernandez rates as a value play at +630 with DraftKings Sportsbook, showing a 6.3% edge.
With Jack Kochanowicz on the mound for the Angels, the data supports Hernandez as one of Friday’s strongest value spots among available home run props.
Pro users have access to a total of 22 home run betting edges today, plus hit and RBI projections, pitcher props, and more—perfect for building smarter MLB parlays and round robins.
Conclusion
For May 15, 2026, our MLB home run predictions are locked in, with sluggers like Shohei Ohtani, Nick Kurtz and Shea Langeliers projected to be among the most powerful bats in today’s games. But it's Teoscar Hernandez who emerges with the day’s strongest model-backed value, supported by a 6.3% edge at +630 odds.
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Jason Bevilacqua, an expert in MLB, NHL, NBA, MLS, and NFL, delivers game previews, best bets, and props. Since 2020, as Head of Social and Community at Dimers, he has contributed insightful articles utilizing data-driven models and simulations.
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