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Timberwolves vs. Rockets prediction: Houston to win, Kevin Durant projected for big game in Friday's NBA matchup [1/16/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Jason Bevilacqua, Head of Content and Communities
Get Minnesota Timberwolves vs Houston Rockets predictions for NBA Friday.
The Houston Rockets will take on the Minnesota Timberwolves in NBA action at Toyota Center on Friday, commencing at 9:30 PM ET.
Based on the latest simulation results and today’s injury news, Dimers' proven NBA model projects the Rockets as the most likely winner of the Timberwolves vs. Rockets game.
This prediction follows the latest NBA Injury Report, which suggests the Rockets lineup will feature stars like Kevin Durant, Alperen Sengun and Amen Thompson, while the Timberwolves will look to Julius Randle, Jaden McDaniels and Donte DiVincenzo.
This article offers further insights into Friday's matchup, including an expanded look at the predicted score, best bets and player prop picks.
Wolves vs. Rockets prediction: Who will win and cover?
Using powerful machine learning and data, we have simulated the result of Friday's NBA game between the Timberwolves and Rockets 10,000 times as part of our NBA predictions coverage.
Our independent predictive model currently gives the Rockets a 61% chance of defeating the Timberwolves. Our predicted final score has the Rockets winning 112-108.
According to our model, the bookmakers have got it right, and the Timberwolves and Rockets each have a 50% chance of covering the spread, while the over/under total of 221.5 points has a 51% chance of staying under.
Timberwolves vs. Rockets odds
We have researched the best NBA odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Timberwolves | Rockets |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | +3.5 (-105) | -3.5 (-115) |
| Moneyline | +142 | -160 |
| Total | o221.5 (-110) | u221.5 (-110) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Timberwolves vs. Rockets picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Timberwolves +3.5 | -105 |
| Moneyline | Rockets | -160 |
| Total | Under 221.5 | -110 |
According to our best NBA bets for Friday, the top play to make on this game is Rockets to win.
Timberwolves vs. Rockets player props
Looking for Minnesota vs. Houston NBA prop bets? We have crunched the numbers to project how each team's leading players will perform at Toyota Center.
Julius Randle is expected to lead the Timberwolves with 22 points, 6 rebounds and 5 assists, while Kevin Durant is projected to have 28 points, 6 rebounds and 5 assists for the Rockets.
Check out our NBA player projections for a full range of projected box scores, including points, assists, rebounds and today's NBA first basket picks.
Timberwolves prediction
Our model's projected player stats for the Timberwolves are:
| Player | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | DFS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Julius Randle | 22 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 43 |
| Jaden McDaniels | 16 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 31 |
| D. DiVincenzo | 14 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 32 |
| Naz Reid | 14 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 30 |
| Bones Hyland | 13 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 28 |
Rockets prediction
Projected points, rebounds, assists and three-pointers made for the Rockets:
| Player | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | DFS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Durant | 28 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 49 |
| Alperen Sengun | 21 | 9 | 6 | 1 | 46 |
| Amen Thompson | 19 | 8 | 6 | 0 | 44 |
| Jabari Smith | 15 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 31 |
| Reed Sheppard | 10 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 22 |
Wolves vs. Rockets game-day updates and essential details
Friday's action between the Rockets and Timberwolves at Toyota Center is scheduled to begin at 9:30 PM ET.
- Who: Minnesota Timberwolves vs. Houston Rockets
- Date: Friday, January 16, 2026
- Time: 9:30 PM ET/6:30PM PT
- Venue: Toyota Center
Conclusion
We predict the Rockets, with a 61% win probability, will likely beat the Timberwolves on Friday, with Kevin Durant projected for a game-high 49 fantasy points.
AI and automation have enhanced this article to quickly deliver accurate Timberwolves vs. Rockets insights, with human oversight ensuring high editorial quality. Our predictions are drawn from the latest data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.
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Jason Bevilacqua, an expert in MLB, NHL, NBA, MLS, and NFL, delivers game previews, best bets, and props. Since 2020, as Head of Social and Community at Dimers, he has contributed insightful articles utilizing data-driven models and simulations.
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