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Timberwolves vs. Rockets prediction: Houston to win, Kevin Durant projected for big game in Friday's NBA matchup [1/16/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Jason Bevilacqua, Head of Content and Communities
Get Minnesota Timberwolves vs Houston Rockets predictions for NBA Friday.
The Houston Rockets will face the Minnesota Timberwolves in NBA action at Toyota Center on Friday, beginning at 9:30 PM ET.
Based on the latest simulations and today’s injury reports, Dimers' advanced NBA model predicts the Rockets as the most likely winner of the Timberwolves vs. Rockets game.
This prediction follows the latest NBA Injury Report, which suggests the Rockets lineup will feature players like Kevin Durant, Amen Thompson and Alperen Sengun, while the Timberwolves will look to Julius Randle, Bones Hyland and Jaden McDaniels.
This article offers an expanded analysis of Friday's matchup, including an expanded look at the predicted score, best bets and player prop picks.
Wolves vs. Rockets prediction: Who will win and cover?
Using trusted machine learning and statistical analysis, we have simulated the result of Friday's NBA matchup between the Timberwolves and Rockets 10,000 times as part of our NBA predictions coverage.
Our famous predictive model currently gives the Rockets a 63% chance of defeating the Timberwolves. Our predicted final score has the Rockets winning 112-108.
According to our model, the Timberwolves (+4.5) have a 53% chance of covering the spread, while the 222.5-point over/under has a 52% chance of staying under.
Timberwolves vs. Rockets odds
We have sourced the best NBA odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Timberwolves | Rockets |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | +4.5 (-110) | -4.5 (-110) |
| Moneyline | +154 | -180 |
| Total | o222.5 (-108) | u222.5 (-110) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Timberwolves vs. Rockets picks and best bet
After matching our probabilities against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Timberwolves +4.5 | -110 |
| Moneyline | Rockets | -180 |
| Total | Under 222.5 | -110 |
According to our best NBA bets for Friday, the top play to make on this game is Timberwolves +4.5 at the spread.
Timberwolves vs. Rockets player props
Betting on Minnesota vs. Houston NBA player props? We have crunched the numbers to project how each team's leading players will perform at Toyota Center.
Julius Randle is expected to lead the Timberwolves with 22 points, 5 rebounds and 6 assists, while Kevin Durant is projected to have 31 points, 6 rebounds and 5 assists for the Rockets.
Check out our NBA player projections for a full range of projected box scores, including points, assists, rebounds and today's NBA first basket picks.
Timberwolves prediction
Our model's projected player stats for the Timberwolves are:
| Player | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | DFS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Julius Randle | 22 | 5 | 6 | 2 | 42 |
| Bones Hyland | 16 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 33 |
| Jaden McDaniels | 15 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 31 |
| D. DiVincenzo | 13 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 31 |
| Naz Reid | 13 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 29 |
Rockets prediction
Projected points, rebounds, assists and three-pointers made for the Rockets:
| Player | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | DFS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Durant | 31 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 53 |
| Amen Thompson | 22 | 9 | 6 | 0 | 50 |
| Alperen Sengun | 21 | 9 | 6 | 1 | 47 |
| Jabari Smith | 14 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 29 |
| Tari Eason | 14 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 31 |
Wolves vs. Rockets game-day updates and essential details
Friday's game between the Rockets and Timberwolves at Toyota Center is scheduled to start at 9:30 PM ET.
- Who: Minnesota Timberwolves vs. Houston Rockets
- Date: Friday, January 16, 2026
- Time: 9:30 PM ET/6:30PM PT
- Venue: Toyota Center
Conclusion
We predict the Rockets, with a 63% win probability, will likely beat the Timberwolves on Friday, with Kevin Durant projected for a game-high 53 fantasy points.
AI and automation have enhanced this article to quickly deliver accurate Timberwolves vs. Rockets insights, with human oversight ensuring high editorial quality. Our predictions are sourced from the latest data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.
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Jason Bevilacqua, an expert in MLB, NHL, NBA, MLS, and NFL, delivers game previews, best bets, and props. Since 2020, as Head of Social and Community at Dimers, he has contributed insightful articles utilizing data-driven models and simulations.
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