NBA picks today: Friday's best bets include Thunder vs. Heat play [1/16/2026]

Today’s NBA picks for January 16, 2026 are here, with Thunder vs. Heat and Timberwolves vs. Rockets among the top plays identified by our model across Friday’s NBA play.

Dimers’ predictive analytics engine runs 24/7, going over the latest basketball odds to unearth genuine betting edges. The result? Data-backed plays that help Dimers Pro members make smarter decisions.

List of NBA picks tonight [1/16, updated 9:15PM ET]

Below, you’ll find today’s best basketball bets, ranked by edge for Friday, January 16, 2026.

Heat +8.5 (-105)

• Edge: 4.1%
• Probability: 55.3%
• Matchup: Thunder vs. Heat (8:00PM ET, Saturday)

Our model has identified value on Heat +8.5 at -105 odds. A 55.3% probability produces an edge of 4.1%, making this the strongest play for today's NBA slate.

Timberwolves +3.5 (-105)

• Edge: 3.5%
• Probability: 54.7%
• Matchup: Timberwolves vs. Rockets (9:30PM ET, Friday)

Timberwolves +3.5 carries a 3.5% edge and a probability of 54.7% at -105 odds, according to our model.

Mavericks ML (-166)

• Edge: 3.4%
• Probability: 59.3%
• Matchup: Jazz vs. Mavericks (5:00PM ET, Saturday)

Mavericks ML at -166 odds shows a 3.4% edge, supported by a 59.3% probability in simulations.

Pacers +12.5 (-110)

• Edge: 3.0%
• Probability: 55.4%
• Matchup: Pacers vs. Pistons (7:30PM ET, Saturday)

A 3.0% edge and 55.4% probability make Pacers +12.5 vs. Pistons at a value play in the Pacers vs. Pistons matchup, per our model.

Wizards +12.5 (-110)

• Edge: 2.9%
• Probability: 55.3%
• Matchup: Wizards vs. Nuggets (9:00PM ET, Saturday)

Wizards +12.5 at -110 odds presents a 2.9% edge, with simulations resulting in a probability of 55.3%.

Wizards vs. Kings under 233.5 points (-105)

• Edge: 2.5%
• Probability: 53.7%
• Matchup: Wizards vs. Kings (10:00PM ET, Friday)

Our model finds value on under 233.5 points in Wizards vs. Kings at -105 odds, supported by an edge of 2.5%.

Warriors ML (-245)

• Edge: 2.2%
• Probability: 74.2%
• Matchup: Hornets vs. Warriors (8:30PM ET, Saturday)

Our model has uncovered value on Warriors ML at -245 odds. A 74.2% probability produces a 2.2% edge, making this a strong play for today's NBA action.

NBA best bets summary: Friday, 1/16/2026

As of 9:15PM ET, here are our top NBA bets by edge recommended by our model:

Matchup	Bet	Odds	Edge	Probability
Thunder vs. Heat	Heat +8.5	-105 @ DraftKings	4.1%	55.3%
Timberwolves vs. Rockets	Timberwolves +3.5	-105 @ BetMGM	3.5%	54.7%
Jazz vs. Mavericks	Mavericks ML	-166 @ DraftKings	3.4%	59.3%
Pacers vs. Pistons	Pacers +12.5	-110 @ BetMGM	3.0%	55.4%
Wizards vs. Nuggets	Wizards +12.5	-110 @ DraftKings	2.9%	55.3%
Wizards vs. Kings	Under 233.5 Points	-105 @ BetMGM	2.5%	53.7%
Hornets vs. Warriors	Warriors ML	-245 @ FanDuel	2.2%	74.2%

List of upcoming NBA games to bet on [1/16/2026]

• Timberwolves vs. Rockets (9:30PM ET, Friday)
• Wizards vs. Kings (10:00PM ET, Friday)
• Jazz vs. Mavericks (5:00PM ET, Saturday)
• Pacers vs. Pistons (7:30PM ET, Saturday)
• Celtics vs. Hawks (7:30PM ET, Saturday)
• Suns vs. Knicks (7:30PM ET, Saturday)
• Thunder vs. Heat (8:00PM ET, Saturday)
• Timberwolves vs. Spurs (8:00PM ET, Saturday)
• Hornets vs. Warriors (8:30PM ET, Saturday)
• Wizards vs. Nuggets (9:00PM ET, Saturday)

Using Dimebot for betting research

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Conclusion

Our NBA best bets are locked and loaded for January 16, 2026, featuring plays such as Heat +8.5 and Timberwolves +3.5. Powered by advanced simulations, these picks are here to boost your betting game.

This article, enhanced by AI and automation, aims to deliver accurate NBA insights quickly, with human oversight ensuring high editorial quality. Our predictions are sourced from current data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

All odds and probabilities in this article are correct and accurate at the time of publication.

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