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Jazz vs. Mavericks Prediction, Picks and Odds
Our detailed prediction and analysis for the Jazz vs. Mavericks NBA game on January 17, 2026 is featured below. Drawing from 10,000 game simulations, we provide expert picks, betting odds, and insights.
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FINAL
NBA
FINAL
NBA
116
132
Jan 17, 10PM American Airlines Center
Jan 17, 10PM American Airlines Center
In-Play ProbabilitiesIn-Play
Game PredictionsPre-Game
Best Bets | TEAM | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Jazz | 29 | 30 | 35 | 22 | 116 |
Mavericks | 42 | 29 | 35 | 26 | 132 |
Live Probabilities
Spread
Over / Under
Moneyline
Win %
<1%
>99%
Win Probability
| TEAM | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Jazz | 29 | 30 | 35 | 22 | 116 |
Mavericks | 42 | 29 | 35 | 26 | 132 |
Q4 1:04 Jazz misses three point jump shot
Q4 1:50 Jazz makes two point jump shot
Q4 2:51 Keyonte George misses two point stepback jump shot
Q4 3:30 Jazz makes two point jump shot
Q4 4:02 Cody Williams makes three point jump shot (Kyle Filipowski assists)
Q4 4:09 Cody Williams misses two point driving layup
Q4 4:23 Mavericks misses three point jump shot
Q4 5:14 Jaden Hardy misses two point turnaround fadeaway jump shot
Q4 5:29 Jazz makes two point jump shot
Q4 5:56 Brice Sensabaugh misses two point cutting layup
Play by Play
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
ALL
End of 4th Quarter.
Moussa Cisse defensive rebound
Miles Kelly defensive rebound
Jazz misses three point jump shot
Jaden Hardy misses regular free throw 1 of 2
Jaden Hardy misses regular free throw 2 of 2
Mavericks offensive rebound
Moussa Cisse defensive rebound
Mavericks turnover
+2
Jazz makes two point jump shot
120-133
Moussa Cisse offensive rebound
Jazz personal foul
Moussa Cisse misses regular free throw 2 of 2
+1
Moussa Cisse makes regular free throw 1 of 2
118-133
Jazz 60 second timeout
+1
Keyonte George makes regular free throw 2 of 2
118-132
Kyle Filipowski defensive rebound
Miles Kelly offensive rebound
Miles Kelly offensive rebound
Jeremiah Robinson-Earl defensive rebound
Jazz personal foul
Keyonte George misses two point stepback jump shot
Mavericks offensive rebound
Moussa Cisse misses regular free throw 1 of 2
Moussa Cisse misses regular free throw 2 of 2
+2
Jazz makes two point jump shot
116-132
+3
Cody Williams makes three point jump shot (Kyle Filipowski assists)
114-129
Cody Williams misses two point driving layup
Mavericks misses three point jump shot
Mavericks turnover
+1
Keyonte George makes regular free throw 1 of 2
111-129
Jazz lineup change (Ace Bailey, Kyle Filipowski, Cody Williams, Keyonte George, Walter Clayton Jr.)
Jaden Hardy shooting foul (Keyonte George draws the foul)
Brice Sensabaugh defensive rebound
Jaden Hardy misses two point turnaround fadeaway jump shot
+2
Jazz makes two point jump shot
110-129
Jaden Hardy offensive rebound
Mavericks defensive rebound
Mavericks 60 second timeout
Mavericks lineup change (Moussa Cisse, Jeremiah Robinson-Earl, Jaden Hardy, Miles Kelly, Ryan Nembhard)
Kyle Anderson offensive rebound
Brice Sensabaugh misses two point cutting layup
Brice Sensabaugh misses three point jump shot
+2
Mavericks makes two point jump shot
108-129
+2
Mavericks makes two point jump shot
106-127
Jazz personal foul
+1
Dwight Powell makes regular free throw 2 of 2
106-125
+2
Jaden Hardy makes two point driving floating bank jump shot (Brandon Williams assists)
106-123
+2
Ace Bailey makes two point alley-oop dunk (Keyonte George assists)
106-121
Caleb Martin misses regular free throw 1 of 2
Jazz lineup change (Ace Bailey, Brice Sensabaugh, Kyle Anderson, Cody Williams, Keyonte George)
+1
Caleb Martin makes regular free throw 2 of 2
104-121
Mavericks lineup change (Caleb Martin, Dwight Powell, Jeremiah Robinson-Earl, Jaden Hardy, Brandon Williams)
+2
Brice Sensabaugh makes two point pullup jump shot
104-120
+2
Mavericks makes two point jump shot
102-120
Isaiah Collier offensive foul (Off the ball) (Caleb Martin draws the foul)
Isaiah Collier personal foul (Brandon Williams draws the foul)
+1
Brandon Williams makes regular free throw 1 of 2
102-117
+1
Brandon Williams makes regular free throw 2 of 2
102-118
+2
Kyle Anderson makes two point driving layup (Isaiah Collier assists)
102-116
Taylor Hendricks shooting foul (Brandon Williams draws the foul)
+1
Brandon Williams makes regular free throw 2 of 2
100-116
Jazz turnover
Taylor Hendricks defensive rebound
Mavericks misses three point jump shot
Max Christie defensive rebound
Jazz misses three point jump shot
+1
Max Christie makes regular free throw 1 of 1
100-112
+2
Max Christie makes two point running layup
100-113
Kyle Anderson shooting foul (Max Christie draws the foul)
Naji Marshall defensive rebound
Brice Sensabaugh misses two point driving floating jump shot
+2
Mavericks makes two point jump shot
100-111
+2
Ace Bailey makes two point putback layup
100-109
Brice Sensabaugh misses two point fadeaway jump shot
Taylor Hendricks defensive rebound
Kyle Anderson shooting foul (Naji Marshall draws the foul)
Naji Marshall misses regular free throw 2 of 2
Caleb Martin defensive rebound
Jazz misses two point jump shot
Ace Bailey offensive rebound
Dwight Powell personal foul (Ace Bailey draws the foul)
Kyle Anderson misses two point turnaround fadeaway jump shot
Mavericks turnover
Taylor Hendricks offensive rebound
Ace Bailey misses two point driving reverse layup
Walter Clayton Jr. shooting foul (Max Christie draws the foul)
+1
Max Christie makes regular free throw 2 of 2
96-108
+2
Walter Clayton Jr. makes two point running layup (Ace Bailey assists)
96-106
Ace Bailey defensive rebound
Max Christie misses two point fadeaway jump shot
Jazz offensive rebound
Mavericks lineup change (Caleb Martin, Dwight Powell, Max Christie, Naji Marshall, Brandon Williams)
End of 3rd Quarter.
Walter Clayton Jr. defensive rebound
Jazz misses heave shot
Jeremiah Robinson-Earl misses three point jump shot
+1
Keyonte George makes regular free throw 1 of 3
92-106
+1
Keyonte George makes regular free throw 3 of 3
94-106
Ryan Nembhard shooting foul (Keyonte George draws the foul)
Ryan Nembhard misses regular free throw 1 of 2
+1
Ryan Nembhard makes regular free throw 2 of 2
91-106
Walter Clayton Jr. personal foul (Ryan Nembhard draws the foul)
Jeremiah Robinson-Earl defensive rebound
Brice Sensabaugh misses regular free throw 2 of 2
+1
Brice Sensabaugh makes regular free throw 1 of 2
91-105
Kyle Anderson defensive rebound
Mavericks misses two point jump shot
Taylor Hendricks defensive rebound
Jaden Hardy misses three point jump shot
+2
Jazz makes two point jump shot
85-107
+1
Keyonte George makes regular free throw 1 of 1
86-107
Klay Thompson shooting foul (Keyonte George draws the foul)
+2
Jaden Hardy makes two point driving layup (Ryan Nembhard assists)
84-105
+2
Jazz makes two point jump shot
83-105
+3
Mavericks makes three point jump shot
81-105
+2
Brice Sensabaugh makes two point running layup (Walter Clayton Jr. assists)
82-100
Brice Sensabaugh defensive rebound
+2
Jazz makes two point jump shot
79-102
Brice Sensabaugh offensive rebound
Klay Thompson personal foul (Brice Sensabaugh draws the foul)
Jazz misses two point jump shot
Stoppage (Out of bounds)
+2
Moussa Cisse makes two point putback layup
78-100
Moussa Cisse offensive rebound
+2
Jazz makes two point jump shot
77-100
Jeremiah Robinson-Earl offensive rebound
+2
Jeremiah Robinson-Earl makes two point putback layup
76-98
Moussa Cisse offensive rebound
Klay Thompson misses three point jump shot
+1
Walter Clayton Jr. makes regular free throw 2 of 2
75-98
Moussa Cisse shooting foul (Walter Clayton Jr. draws the foul)
+2
Mavericks makes two point jump shot
73-98
Instant replay
Mavericks lineup change (Moussa Cisse, Jeremiah Robinson-Earl, Jaden Hardy, Klay Thompson, Ryan Nembhard)
Walter Clayton Jr. misses flagrant free throw 1 of 2
+1
Walter Clayton Jr. makes flagrant free throw 2 of 2
90-107
Mavericks lineup change (Moussa Cisse, Jeremiah Robinson-Earl, Jaden Hardy, Klay Thompson, Ryan Nembhard)
Jazz offensive rebound
Jazz 60 second timeout
Naji Marshall defensive rebound
Brice Sensabaugh misses three point jump shot
Jazz lineup change (Brice Sensabaugh, Kyle Anderson, Keyonte George, Taylor Hendricks, Walter Clayton Jr.)
+2
Max Christie makes two point fadeaway bank jump shot
73-96
Mavericks misses three point jump shot
Dwight Powell defensive rebound
Ace Bailey misses three point jump shot
+2
Jazz makes two point jump shot
73-92
+3
Naji Marshall makes three point jump shot (Klay Thompson assists)
71-92
Dwight Powell misses flagrant free throw 1 of 2
Jazz lineup change (Ace Bailey, Kyle Filipowski, Kyle Anderson, Keyonte George, Walter Clayton Jr.)
+1
Dwight Powell makes flagrant free throw 2 of 2
71-89
Mavericks lineup change (Dwight Powell, Max Christie, Naji Marshall, Klay Thompson, Brandon Williams)
Mavericks 60 second timeout
Instant replay (Request: Ruling Overturned)
Mavericks offensive rebound
Jazz lineup change (Ace Bailey, Kyle Filipowski, Brice Sensabaugh, Keyonte George, Walter Clayton Jr.)
Keyonte George flagrant 1 (Dwight Powell draws the foul)
+3
Jazz makes three point jump shot
69-83
+3
Brandon Williams makes three point jump shot
66-83
Cody Williams turnover (lost ball) (Naji Marshall steals)
+2
Naji Marshall makes two point fadeaway jump shot (Max Christie assists)
68-85
+3
Mavericks makes three point jump shot
63-78
Mavericks offensive rebound
Kyle Filipowski blocks Brandon Williams's two point driving layup
+2
Jazz makes two point jump shot
63-75
Ace Bailey defensive rebound
Dwight Powell misses regular free throw 1 of 2
Dwight Powell misses regular free throw 2 of 2
Mavericks offensive rebound
+2
Keyonte George makes two point driving floating jump shot
63-80
Kyle Filipowski shooting foul (Naji Marshall draws the foul)
Jazz lineup change (Ace Bailey, Kyle Filipowski, Cody Williams, Keyonte George, Walter Clayton Jr.)
Naji Marshall misses regular free throw 1 of 1
Caleb Martin defensive rebound
Isaiah Collier misses three point jump shot
Kyle Filipowski defensive rebound
Isaiah Collier misses three point jump shot
+2
Dwight Powell makes two point cutting layup (Max Christie assists)
61-78
Brandon Williams defensive rebound
Cody Williams offensive rebound
Keyonte George misses two point stepback jump shot
Naji Marshall misses two point driving floating jump shot
+2
Ace Bailey makes two point pullup jump shot
61-74
Brandon Williams turnover (bad pass)
Brandon Williams turnover (bad pass)
Brandon Williams misses two point driving floating jump shot
Isaiah Collier personal foul (Caleb Martin draws the foul)
Ace Bailey personal foul
Kyle Filipowski offensive foul (Caleb Martin draws the foul)
+3
Max Christie makes three point jump shot (Caleb Martin assists)
59-74
Mavericks misses three point jump shot
End of 1st Half.
Mavericks lineup change (Caleb Martin, Dwight Powell, Max Christie, Naji Marshall, Brandon Williams)
Start of 3rd Quarter
Kyle Filipowski offensive rebound
Stoppage (Out of bounds)
Mavericks misses three point jump shot
+3
Mavericks makes three point jump shot
55-71
+3
Mavericks makes three point jump shot
53-68
Jazz misses two point jump shot
Jazz personal foul
+1
Klay Thompson makes regular free throw 2 of 3
53-64
+3
Mavericks makes three point jump shot
50-62
Kyle Filipowski offensive rebound
Mavericks turnover
Moussa Cisse defensive rebound
Jazz lineup change (Ace Bailey, Isaiah Collier, Kyle Filipowski, Cody Williams, Keyonte George)
Keyonte George defensive rebound
+2
Jazz makes two point jump shot
48-59
Mavericks misses two point jump shot
Jazz misses three point jump shot
+2
Jazz makes two point jump shot
46-57
Mavericks misses three point jump shot
Jazz misses three point jump shot
Jazz turnover
+2
Jazz makes two point jump shot
44-52
Jazz personal foul
Max Christie misses regular free throw 2 of 2
Mavericks defensive rebound
Jazz personal foul
Mavericks lineup change (Max Christie, Moussa Cisse, Naji Marshall, Klay Thompson, Ryan Nembhard)
Mavericks misses two point jump shot
Cody Williams defensive rebound
Mavericks 60 second timeout
Ryan Nembhard defensive rebound
+1
Brice Sensabaugh makes regular free throw 1 of 2
40-51
Jazz lineup change (Isaiah Collier, Kyle Filipowski, Brice Sensabaugh, Cody Williams, Keyonte George)
Kyle Filipowski defensive rebound
Ace Bailey turnover (offensive foul)
Ace Bailey defensive rebound
+3
Jazz makes three point jump shot
39-51
Mavericks lineup change (Caleb Martin, Moussa Cisse, Naji Marshall, Miles Kelly, Brandon Williams)
+2
Mavericks makes two point jump shot
36-51
Brice Sensabaugh defensive rebound
Mavericks personal foul
+1
Brice Sensabaugh makes regular free throw 1 of 2
35-49
Mavericks lineup change (Caleb Martin, Moussa Cisse, Jeremiah Robinson-Earl, Naji Marshall, Brandon Williams)
Stoppage (Out of bounds)
Mavericks lineup change (Caleb Martin, Moussa Cisse, Jeremiah Robinson-Earl, Miles Kelly, Brandon Williams)
Jazz misses two point jump shot
Brandon Williams offensive rebound
Brandon Williams offensive rebound
+3
Jazz makes three point jump shot
34-47
Jazz misses three point jump shot
+1
Jeremiah Robinson-Earl makes regular free throw 1 of 2
31-46
Jazz turnover
Mavericks misses three point jump shot
Jazz misses three point jump shot
+2
Jazz makes two point jump shot
31-43
Jazz personal foul
Mavericks offensive rebound
Mavericks misses two point jump shot
Jazz misses three point jump shot
Mavericks offensive rebound
Mavericks lineup change (Caleb Martin, Dwight Powell, Jeremiah Robinson-Earl, Miles Kelly, Brandon Williams)
+2
Jazz makes two point jump shot
29-42
+2
Jazz makes two point jump shot
27-39
+2
Jazz makes two point jump shot
25-36
+2
Jazz makes two point jump shot
23-33
+2
Mavericks makes two point jump shot
21-33
Mavericks personal foul
Kyle Anderson misses regular free throw 1 of 2
Kyle Anderson misses regular free throw 2 of 2
Mavericks turnover
+2
Mavericks makes two point jump shot
19-31
Stoppage (Out of bounds)
Jazz personal foul
Kyle Anderson turnover (offensive foul)
Jazz lineup change (Ace Bailey, Brice Sensabaugh, Kyle Anderson, Keyonte George, Walter Clayton Jr.)
Mavericks personal foul
Jazz misses three point jump shot
Mavericks misses three point jump shot
+3
Mavericks makes three point jump shot
15-29
+2
Mavericks makes two point jump shot
12-26
Jazz personal foul
Jazz lineup change (Ace Bailey, Isaiah Collier, Brice Sensabaugh, Kyle Anderson, Walter Clayton Jr.)
Mavericks lineup change (Max Christie, Moussa Cisse, Naji Marshall, Klay Thompson, Ryan Nembhard)
+3
Mavericks makes three point jump shot
12-24
+2
Mavericks makes two point jump shot
10-20
+1
Max Christie makes regular free throw 1 of 1
10-21
Jazz misses two point jump shot
+3
Jazz makes three point jump shot
10-15
Jazz misses three point jump shot
+3
Jazz makes three point jump shot
7-13
Jazz lineup change (Isaiah Collier, Kyle Filipowski, Brice Sensabaugh, Cody Williams, Walter Clayton Jr.)
+2
Mavericks makes two point jump shot
4-13
Jazz misses two point jump shot
Dwight Powell defensive rebound
Cody Williams defensive rebound
+2
Jazz makes two point jump shot
4-8
Mavericks misses two point jump shot
+2
Mavericks makes two point jump shot (Brandon Williams assists)
2-8
Jazz misses three point jump shot
Mavericks misses two point jump shot
+2
Mavericks makes two point jump shot
0-6
Jazz misses three point jump shot
Mavericks personal foul
Naji Marshall defensive rebound
+2
Mavericks makes two point jump shot
0-2
Jazz misses three point jump shot
Mavericks turnover
Ace Bailey defensive rebound
Jazz lineup change (Ace Bailey, Isaiah Collier, Kyle Filipowski, Cody Williams, Keyonte George)
Mavericks lineup change (Caleb Martin, Dwight Powell, Max Christie, Naji Marshall, Brandon Williams)
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Jazz vs. Mavericks: Detailed Breakdown
Matchup Overview
- Teams: Jazz vs. Mavericks
- Date: Saturday, January 17, 2026
- Time: 5:00 PM ET
- Venue: American Airlines Center
Current Betting Odds
- Spread: Mavericks favored at -3.5
- Total (Over/Under): 241
- Moneyline Odds: Jazz +140, Mavericks -152
Dimers' Win Probabilities
- Jazz: 35%
- Mavericks: 65%
Dimers' predictive model, renowned for its accuracy, assesses each team's chances by simulating the outcome of the game 10,000 times. This method provides a precise and unbiased view.
Projected Final Score
Our predicted final score for this NBA matchup is Jazz 117-121 Mavericks.
This prediction is based on each team's average score following 10,000 game simulations.
Our Prediction: Who Wins?
After extensive simulations, our model gives the Jazz a win probability of 35%, while the Mavericks have a win probability of 65%. Discover the best spread, over/under, and moneyline odds for the game on this page.
Summary
According to our analysis, the Mavericks are more likely to beat the Jazz in the NBA game at American Airlines Center on Saturday. Discover the best spread, over/under and moneyline odds, picks and probabilities for the game on this page.
Our Jazz vs. Mavericks predictions, based on sophisticated simulations and current data, guide you in making informed decisions. Remember to bet responsibly and within your financial limits.
For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.
When you click or tap on a link on Dimers that goes to a third-party website that we have a commercial relationship with (such as a sportsbook), we may receive a referral fee.
For further insights, explore our expert NBA predictions and the best NBA bets today, while our in-depth analysis includes NBA props, NBA futures, NBA odds, and the latest NBA news.
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