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NBA first basket picks and predictions for Friday, January 16, 2026
Updated: | First published:
Written by Damien Souness, Chief Innovation Officer
Get first basket predictions today guided by expert analysis of NBA slate on 1/16.
Our NBA first basket picks and predictions for today—Friday, January 16, 2026—are live with the Clippers' Kawhi Leonard projected as the most likely player to score first.
Dimers’ first basket projections draw on detailed first basket stats, including player efficiency, shot frequency, and expected starting lineups, forming part of our daily NBA player projections.
Leonard, Julius Randle and Pascal Siakam lead Friday’s most likely first basket scorers, while we also highlight tonight's top first basket value picks by comparing real-time odds to model-generated probabilities.
NBA first basket predictions tonight (January 16, 2026)
| Player | Team | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Kawhi Leonard | Clippers | 16.4% |
| Julius Randle | Timberwolves | 15.8% |
| Pascal Siakam | Pacers | 15.5% |
| Zion Williamson | Pelicans | 14.4% |
| Donovan Mitchell | Cavaliers | 13.8% |
| Nikola Vucevic | Bulls | 13.8% |
| Kevin Durant | Rockets | 13.7% |
| Joel Embiid | 76ers | 13.6% |
| Tyrese Maxey | 76ers | 13.6% |
| Brandon Ingram | Raptors | 13.6% |
| Alex Sarr | Wizards | 11.7% |
| DeMar DeRozan | Kings | 11.6% |
| Alperen Sengun | Rockets | 11.3% |
| Matas Buzelis | Bulls | 11.2% |
| Scottie Barnes | Raptors | 11.2% |
NBA first basket picks today (January 16, 2026)
| Player | Team | Edge | Odds | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joel Embiid | 76ers | 1.9% | +750 | 13.7% |
| Tyrese Maxey | 76ers | 1.1% | +700 | 13.6% |
| Kawhi Leonard | Clippers | 1.0% | +550 | 16.4% |
| John Collins | Clippers | 1.0% | +1000 | 10.0% |
| Russell Westbrook | Kings | 0.5% | +1000 | 9.6% |
Edges represent the difference between model probability and implied odds.
For more insights on prop markets and value plays across the league, explore our full list of NBA prop bets for 1/16.
Conclusion: Betting on today's NBA first basket
For Friday, January 16, 2026, Kawhi Leonard, Julius Randle and Pascal Siakam lead our first basket projections, while Joel Embiid shapes as the strongest value play at +750. All picks and predictions are derived from Dimers’ NBA first basket model.
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Damien Souness leverages over 15 years of experience to create engaging content focused on sports, online gaming and wagering. As Chief Innovation Officer at Cipher Sports Technology Group, the parent company of Dimers, he offers strategic insights and innovative solutions to enhance the player experience.
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