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Heat vs. Pelicans prediction: New Orleans favored to win Wednesday's NBA matchup [2/11/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Jason Bevilacqua, Head of Content and Communities
Get Miami Heat vs New Orleans Pelicans predictions for NBA Wednesday.
The New Orleans Pelicans and Miami Heat are scheduled to meet in NBA action at Smoothie King Center on Wednesday, with tipoff at 8:00 PM ET.
Based on updated simulations and today’s injury updates, Dimers' proven NBA model predicts the Pelicans as the most likely winner of the Heat vs. Pelicans game.
This prediction follows the latest NBA Injury Report, which suggests the Pelicans lineup will feature players like Trey Murphy, Zion Williamson and Saddiq Bey, while the Heat will rely on Bam Adebayo, Jaime Jaquez and Simone Fontecchio.
This article offers a closer look at Wednesday's matchup, including an expanded look at the predicted score, best bets and player prop picks.
Heat vs. Pelicans prediction: Who will win and cover?
Using innovative machine learning and statistical analysis, we have simulated the result of Wednesday's NBA game between the Heat and Pelicans 10,000 times as part of our NBA predictions coverage.
Our independent predictive model gives the Pelicans a 58% chance of beating the Heat. Our predicted final score has the Pelicans winning 117-115.
According to our model, the Pelicans (-2) have a 52% chance of covering the spread, while the 233.5-point over/under has a 52% chance of staying under.
Heat vs. Pelicans odds
We have researched the best NBA odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Heat | Pelicans |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | +2 (-114) | -2 (-106) |
| Moneyline | +105 | -120 |
| Total | o233.5 (-105) | u233.5 (-112) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Heat vs. Pelicans picks and best bet
After matching our probabilities against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Pelicans -2 | -106 |
| Moneyline | Pelicans | -120 |
| Total | Under 233.5 | -112 |
According to our best NBA bets for Wednesday, the top play to make on this game is Pelicans to win.
Heat vs. Pelicans player props
NBA prop bets are a common way to wager on the Miami vs. New Orleans game without necessarily betting on the outcome. We use the best information available to project how each team's leading players will perform at Smoothie King Center.
Bam Adebayo is expected to lead the Heat with 21 points, 11 rebounds and 4 assists, while Trey Murphy is projected to have 26 points, 6 rebounds and 4 assists for the Pelicans.
Check out our NBA player projections for a full range of projected box scores, including points, assists, rebounds and today's NBA first basket picks.
Heat prediction
Our model's projected player stats for the Heat are:
| Player | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | DFS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bam Adebayo | 21 | 11 | 4 | 2 | 46 |
| Jaime Jaquez | 19 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 39 |
| S. Fontecchio | 14 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 28 |
| Kel'el Ware | 14 | 10 | 1 | 2 | 32 |
| Myron Gardner | 12 | 8 | 3 | 2 | 31 |
Pelicans prediction
Projected points, rebounds, assists and three-pointers made for the Pelicans:
| Player | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | DFS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trey Murphy | 26 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 46 |
| Zion Williamson | 23 | 7 | 5 | 0 | 43 |
| Saddiq Bey | 19 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 35 |
| Jeremiah Fears | 14 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 29 |
| Derik Queen | 13 | 8 | 5 | 0 | 35 |
Heat vs. Pelicans game-day updates and essential details
Wednesday's matchup between the Pelicans and Heat at Smoothie King Center is scheduled to commence at 8:00 PM ET.
- Who: Miami Heat vs. New Orleans Pelicans
- Date: Wednesday, February 11, 2026
- Time: 8:00 PM ET/5:00PM PT
- Venue: Smoothie King Center
Conclusion
We predict the Pelicans, with a 58% win probability, will likely beat the Heat on Wednesday, with Bam Adebayo projected for a game-high 46 fantasy points.
AI and automation have enhanced this article to quickly deliver accurate Heat vs. Pelicans insights, with human oversight ensuring high editorial quality. Our predictions are sourced from the latest data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.
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Jason Bevilacqua, an expert in MLB, NHL, NBA, MLS, and NFL, delivers game previews, best bets, and props. Since 2020, as Head of Social and Community at Dimers, he has contributed insightful articles utilizing data-driven models and simulations.
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