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NBA first basket picks and predictions for Wednesday, February 11, 2026
Updated: | First published:
Written by Damien Souness, Chief Innovation Officer
Get first basket predictions today guided by expert analysis of NBA slate on 2/11.
Our NBA first basket picks and predictions for today—Wednesday, February 11, 2026—are live with the Celtics' Jaylen Brown projected as the most likely player to score first.
These projections draw on key first basket stats, including player efficiency, shot frequency, and expected starting lineups, forming part of our daily NBA player projections.
Brown, Kawhi Leonard and Nikola Jokic lead Wednesday’s most likely first basket scorers, while we also identify tonight's top first basket value picks by comparing real-time odds to model-generated probabilities.
NBA first basket predictions tonight (February 11, 2026)
| Player | Team | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Jaylen Brown | Celtics | 18.7% |
| Kawhi Leonard | Clippers | 17.8% |
| Nikola Jokic | Nuggets | 17.0% |
| Kel'el Ware | Heat | 14.8% |
| Cade Cunningham | Pistons | 14.7% |
| Jamal Murray | Nuggets | 14.3% |
| Anthony Edwards | Timberwolves | 14.3% |
| Tyrese Maxey | 76ers | 14.2% |
| Donovan Mitchell | Cavaliers | 14.2% |
| Victor Wembanyama | Spurs | 13.9% |
| Anfernee Simons | Bulls | 13.7% |
| Ty Jerome | Grizzlies | 13.6% |
| LaMelo Ball | Hornets | 13.5% |
| Dillon Brooks | Suns | 13.5% |
| Jalen Brunson | Knicks | 13.4% |
NBA first basket picks today (February 11, 2026)
| Player | Team | Edge | Odds | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyshawn George | Wizards | 3.5% | +1000 | 12.6% |
| Tre Johnson | Wizards | 2.9% | +900 | 12.9% |
| Jalen Williams | Thunder | 2.1% | +800 | 13.3% |
| Ty Jerome | Grizzlies | 1.8% | +750 | 13.6% |
| Anfernee Simons | Bulls | 0.4% | +650 | 13.7% |
| DeMar DeRozan | Kings | 0.2% | +700 | 12.7% |
| Dillon Brooks | Suns | 0.1% | +650 | 13.5% |
Edges represent the difference between model probability and implied odds.
For more insights on prop markets and value plays across the league, explore our full list of NBA prop bets for 2/11.
Conclusion: Betting on today's NBA first basket
For Wednesday, February 11, 2026, Jaylen Brown, Kawhi Leonard and Nikola Jokic lead our first basket projections, while Kyshawn George shapes as the strongest value play at +1000. All picks and predictions are derived from Dimers’ NBA first basket model.
For tips and resources on responsible wagering, visit our Responsible Gambling section.
Damien Souness leverages over 15 years of experience to create engaging content focused on sports, online gaming and wagering. As Chief Innovation Officer at Cipher Sports Technology Group, the parent company of Dimers, he offers strategic insights and innovative solutions to enhance the player experience.
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